The Indianapolis Colts have the 5th worst pass defense in the league giving up 263.8 yards per game through the air. We already know that the number one objective for the Colts in this game is going to be to stop Derrick Henry. They will come out with loaded boxes. Tim Kelly and the Tennessee Titans offense should take advantage of that and push the ball down the field early. Use the pass to set up the run instead of the other way around.
It has been well documented how much better Ryan Tannehill is when the gameplan is heavy on play-action. Come out and take a couple of play-action shots here early. Even without Treylon Burks out there, the Titans still have plenty of guys that can make a big play. DeAndre Hopkins did it last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Chris Moore has done it a couple of times. They haven’t hit a big one to Chig Okonkwo yet this year, but we know he has that in him as well.
If they can build an early lead, it will force the Colts to go more pass-heavy than they would like with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. Now, Richardson has been better throwing the ball early in this season than most people expected, but the Titans' chances are much better with him dropping back to pass. Hopefully, they can get him to force a few passes and turn the ball over.
An early lead would also allow them to feed Derrick Henry in the second half which is the best recipe for success for this team. Check out Henry’s numbers against the AFC South:
Derrick Henry vs. the AFC South— AtoZ Sports Nashville (@AtoZSports) October 6, 2023
- 100+ rushing yards in 13 of last 14 division games
- 103.6 YPG vs. divisional opponents (2nd most all time)
- 5.47 YPC vs. divisional opponents (Most all time)
All hail the King of the South pic.twitter.com/MiQGaFRzvM
The Titans are all the way up to a 2.5-point favorite in this game. They can cover that easily with an early, efficient passing game.