Expect A Big Day From The Titans Pass Rush Against The Bills

We’re just a day away from the Titans matchup at home with the Bills (coincidentally in Week 5 against the same opponent for the second straight year!), a team Tennessee goes way back with. From their days as the Oilers when The Comeback happened to The Music City Miracle, there’s quite a bit of history between the two.

The last team these teams met the Bills won in a close matchup 13-12. This time the game is played at Nashville, and the two share some pretty good defensive play heading into this duel. The Bills shutdown the Patriots offense last week while the Titans defense has been consistently solid for all of 2019.

Based on some of the stakes I think we can expect the Titans defense—specifically the pass rush—to have a big day against the Bills offensive line.

From my charting the Bills offensive line has still been a weak point for the team. In addition to allowing the fourth most QB hits (30, tied with the Bengals and Buccaneers) the team allowed the fifth most pressures through week 4 (52) while also allowing the sixth highest rate of pressure; 30 percent of the team’s dropbacks have come with defensive pressure. Even with a quarterback in Josh Allen that tends to hold onto the ball for way too long this is not a good sign, and the pressures I chart do not include such plays.

On the other hand the Titans defense has produced 48 pressures (tied with Houston for the 8th most), tied with the Vikings for the 12th most QB hits (25), and through week 4 were tied with the Rams and Patriots for the 7th highest rate of pressure produced (29% pressure rate). For a team that has yet to see first round pick Jeffery Simmons take a snap due to injury that’s damn impressive!

Don’t get your hopes up though because the Titans offensive line has actually been worse than the Bills’ to this point. In addition to allowing the fifth most sacks (17) and the 7th most QB hits (29), the team has allowed the 2nd most pressures (58) and the 2nd highest rate of pressure (40% of the team’s dropbacks) have come with pressure). The only team worse in both stats is Miami, a team that’s purposefully trying to tank.

In a stranglehold battle for the AFC South the Titans face a difficult matchup in the Bills defense. Though they’ve been average in pressures and pressure rate, the defense has allowed very few in the way of points, and I don’t expect that to change with how inconsistent this offense has been.

That’s why the Titans need a big day from the pass rush, and I think we just might get it.