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What are the odds? Titans vs. Jaguars

This one is going to be ugly.

NFL: New York Jets at Tennessee Titans Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The Titans are still breathing at 6-6, but it’s going to take a strong December, along with plenty of help assuming they don’t win out, to make a playoff push. That push continues on Thursday night with the Jacksonville Jaguars in town.

It’s now been over 700 days since the Jaguars have beaten the Titans. Tennessee found a way down in Jacksonville earlier this season, inserting Marcus Mariota into the game after Blaine Gabbert left with a concussion. Mariota, playing with limited feeling in his throwing hand, kept the Titans afloat while the defense won the Titans the game, 9-6.

Mariota is now healthy and now the Jaguars have made a change at quarterback. Cody Kessler has replaced Blake Bortles under center. Jacksonville won their first attempt with Kessler starting, thanks to their defense. The Jaguars pitched a shutout against Indianapolis, winning 6-0 last Sunday.

That defensive group is the primary area of concern for the Titans. They’ve had their down moments this season, but they still rank inside the top five in points allowed and yards allowed. The Titans should be able to handle their business defensively, but can this inconsistent offense score on the Jaguars? The good news is, it probably won’t take many points.

The total has been set at a measly 38 for Thursday’s game. That number has already been driven down to 37.5. Tennessee opened as 4.5 point favorites, that number is now down to four.

The home favorite on Thursday night this year is a staggering 8-1-1 against the spread. It’s tough to envision Kessler being able to do enough to pull of the upset here. The Jaguars will get Leonard Fournette back, but I’m not sure how much that actually moves the needle.

Full disclosure here — all of that could be meaningless if the Titans decide not to show up. This is the same team that dug a 16-0 hole last week against the Jets, after all. However, I think they’re good enough defensively to win Thursday, as long as the offense isn’t working against them.