What are the odds? Titans at Bills

The Tennessee Titans keep winning — both on the field and in Vegas. Mike Vrabel’s group improved to 3-1 against the spread on Sunday, winning for the third straight week as the underdog.

This win was very different from the others though. The Titans were finally back to full strength, seeing quarterback Marcus Mariota return to form, along with right tackle Jack Conklin returning to the starting lineup. Tennessee went toe to toe with the world champs, and came out on top in dramatic fashion.

Next up are the Buffalo Bills, one of the worst teams in the league. Vegas placed the Titans as three point road favorites for Sunday’s matchup, but that line quickly jumped up to -3.5. The total has been set at just 39 points.

With three straight straining, improbable wins, it’s going to be interesting to see how this team shows up as a favorite against a bad Bills team on the road. You better not sleep on any team in the NFL — just ask the Vikings. Buffalo dismantled Minnesota in week three for their only win on the season so far. It was a truly shocking result, considering how bad the Bills looked in weeks one and two.

If you take that Vikings game out of the equation, the Bills have a -77 point differential for the year. Even with that game in the equation, they’re -56 for the year — and it’s only week five.

The team stats actually aren’t all that bad for Buffalo, at least defensively. The Bills are 15th in total defense, ranking 11th against the run. Most of that is due to game flow issues for Minnesota and the fact that Green Bay can’t really run the ball. They’re 16th against the pass, anchored by standout cornerback Tre’Davious White, who should see plenty of Corey Davis.

The problem comes on the offensive side, where they rank 31st in total offense. Rookie quarterback Josh Allen is the leading passer and rusher on the team, if that tells you anything.

With how the Titans looked on offense against the Eagles, it’s hard to think the Bills will be able to hang for four quarters. But it is the NFL — and the spread is small for a reason. This has “letdown spot” written all over it.

I’m rolling with the Titans -3.5, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is closer than you think.