The people over at Bet Labs ran the NFL season 10,000 times, and the Titans come up as the winner of the AFC South 37% of the time. That number is 7.4% higher than the number for the Colts (29.6%), who are the second most likely. So it turns out that simulations AND Vegas like the Titans to win the AFC South.
Here is part of what they said about the Titans:
It’ll be a tight race but after 10,000 simulations the Titans win the AFC South 37.0% of the time. The team’s most likely record is 9-7. The season win total for Mike Mularkey’s team is 8.5. There is a 54.9% chance the team wins 9 or more games and a 45.1% chance it finishes 8-8 or worse. There is no value betting the team’s over/under.
The line between 7-9 and 10-6 is really, really thin in the NFL. This simulation expects the Titans to be one of the teams that falls somewhere in that window.