AFC playoff picture: Where the Titans stack up heading in to Week 14

The Titans are now 8-4 and are in great shape to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2008 season. They hold steady in the 3 seed for a second straight week, and the New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator has them at a 92% chance to make the playoffs.

Obviously, the most important game for the Titans this weekend is their matchup with the Cardinals in Arizona. A win would raise their playoff odds to 97% while a loss drops them to 88%.

Seahawks (8-4) at Jaguars (8-4) - Sunday, 3:25 PM CST

Titans playoff odds if Jaguars win: 92%

Titans playoff odds if Seahawks win: 93%

This game barely moves the needle for the Titans playoff chances, but it obviously is big for the division race. With a home date with Houston and a road trip to San Francisco on the schedule in Weeks 15 and 16, this game seems like the most likely spot for a Jaguars loss before Week 17.

With just three games left between now and the looming Week 17 matchup the chances of that game not turning in a de facto AFC South championship are getting pretty small. A Titans win combined with a Jaguars loss would guarantee the Titans a shot at the division title in Week 17 even if they lose to both the 49ers and the Rams. It also keeps a scenario alive where the Titans could clinch the division before Week 16 if the Titans win their next two and the Jags lose to both the Seahawks and the Texans.

The Titans are 5-1 at home and just 3-3 on the road this year so getting that home playoff game would make a huge difference in the outlook of possible matchups.

Colts (3-9) at Bills (6-6) - Sunday, 12:00 PM CST

Titans playoff odds if Bills win: 90%

Titans playoff odds if Colts win: 96%

The Bills are technically still in the hunt. They have a pretty favorable remaining schedule getting the Colts this week and then the Dolphins twice in the last three weeks (I have no idea why the NFL schedules rematches so close together sometimes). The other game left on the schedule is an almost sure loss to the Patriots so 9-7 feels like the best the Bills can do. A loss to the Colts would kill off any realistic hope of them making a late run while simultaneously sabotaging the Colts draft pick. Sign me up for that.

Raiders (6-6) at Chiefs (6-6) - Sunday, 12:00 PM CST

Titans playoff odds if Raiders win: 91%

Titans playoff odds if Chiefs win: 93%

This is a huge game in the AFC West race and we should be pulling for the Chiefs to win it. The Titans will almost certainly end up holding the tiebreaker with the Chiefs if it comes down to that, but they won’t win a tie with the Raiders so that makes Oakland the more dangerous team for the Titans playoff chances (and seeding considerations). The AFC West is a mess right now and all these teams are going to be playing each other down the stretch.

Redskins (5-7) at Chargers (6-6) - Sunday, 3:05 PM CST

Titans playoff odds if Chargers win: 92%

Titans playoff odds if Redskins win: 93%

This one barely moves the needle, but we should be rooting for the Redskins anyway. I view the Chargers as the most dangerous team in the race for a potential wild card spot right now and are the team I would least like to see in a potential Round 1 matchup.

Ravens (7-5) at Steelers (10-2) - Sunday, 7:30 PM CST

Titans playoff odds if Ravens win: 90%

Titans playoff odds if Steelers win: 94%

With the Steelers coming back to win last night over the Bengals, it is time to put away any thoughts of potentially sneaking in to a 2 seed. The Titans ceiling is realistically the 3 seed moving forward. The Ravens schedule after this game gets ridiculously soft — at Browns, vs Colts, vs Bengals — so a loss in Pittsburgh would be a big help.