FanDuel week 13 strategy, projections and rankings

Hello everybody! MCM asked for new blood and I answered the call. I’ve been a long time reader but I’ve never posted. My focus as of now will be on fantasy. Just in case you are wondering, I consider a few things in my formula.

1. Usage

Does my player have great volume (large amount of carries/targets)? Is he a boom/bust deepball guy like DeSean Jackson? Is he a redzone target?

2. Game flow

Is the team going to be blown out? Is it going to be a shoot out? How will this affect my player?

3. Matchup

Is the team they’re going against have any significant injuries? Does their defense give up points? Does their QB throw a ton of INTs?

4. Uncertainty

Were there coaching changes? Are there a plethora of injuries? Any nagging injuries to my player?

5. Value (FanDuel only)

Is the player at a respectable salary for their amount of production?

6. Weather

Will there be a storm?

This particular post will be on FanDuel, particularly on the NFL Sunday Million. The goal is to get the combo of players that will net you the highest point total. For that reason, I do not do rankings, I just present the information and let you decide (because it is a crap shoot). For those of you not in the know, FanDuel is daily fantasy that assigns each player a salary and you have a salary cap of 60,000. This is slightly different from 50/50 leagues or matchup leagues, because you are focusing less on floors, and more on potential. I list the defensive ranking (pass or rush) of concern for each position. Now, without further ado, on to the players.

QB (Goal for tournament play: 35 points)

Oh, you fancy huh? (Expensive players who we know will do well)

Tom Brady, 9.3 K (or $9,300)

Brady is at the 22nd ranked Buffalo Bills. Historically, Brady absolutely torches the Bills. This game might be a blowout, but the Patriots will usually still pass until they are up 30.

Russell Wilson, 8.2 K

Wilson is going against the Eagles in what will most likely be a shootout or an Eagles blowout. Wilson will get rushing points as well as plenty of passing yards. Wilson will most likely be the best QB this week.

Bold Strategy (Risky plays that have a chance to pay off)

Carson Wentz, 8.0

Wentz is at the notorious acoustic nightmare in Seattle. It will most likely be a shootout, but the Eagles have a large portion of their offense generated by their D/ST and their running backs. That being said, Wentz keeps proving doubters wrong, and the 11th ranked Seattle defense is full of injuries.

Tyrod Taylor, 7.3

Going against the Pats last ranked defense and he’ll be down the whole game. He also runs! But his coach is an idiot who may yank him faster than if Denzel lost a game at T. C. Williams High School.

DeShone Kizer, 6.3

Kizer is getting Josh Gordon back and recently got Corey Coleman back. A lot of those interceptions that were resulting from the dropsies of Kenny Britt have gone down. He is playing the 7th ranked LAC defense who notoriously play to the competition. He also gets plenty of designed runs, especially in the red zone.

Jimmy Garoppolo, 6.3

He is the new starter going against the 13th ranked defense of Chicago. The game will be terrible to watch but he looked great in limited action last week.

The Other Guys (Guys who have a high ceiling but we don’t know what they’ll do)

Cam Newton, 8.2, against the 15th ranked Saints.

Keenum, 7.6, at the 8th ranked Falcons

Mariota, 7.4, at the 24th ranked Texans in a get back game (he got 18.7 last time).

RB (Goal for tournament play: 30 points)

Oh, you fancy huh?

Gurley, 8.8, against the 10th ranked Cardinals in a game that they will likely be leading. He should get a heavy dose of carries and is by far the lead back in every situation there.

Fournette, 8.7, against the 16th ranked Indi defense. The Jags should be up or competitive in this game. Fournette is the lead back, but cedes some passing touches to Ivory. He also has a nagging ankle injury.

Bold Strategy

McCoy, 8.2, against the 22nd ranked New England rushing defense. His usage is random, as is his production. Usually, he’ll get about 20 carries and 4 targets a game. He frequently gets vultured by Tyrod Taylor/Charles Clay/backup RBs. He could go off if the game stays close.

Carlos Hyde, 7.0, at the Bears 17th ranked defense. There is uncertainty how Jimmy G will affect his production, but he has had sporadic success this season. He is the lead back and has gotten far more targets this season.

It’s real nice, I got it at Target (Value buys)

Kareem Hunt, 6.9, at the 26th ranked Jets defense. The Chiefs have lost their way. This should be a get right game where they are reminded what got them there, Kareem Hunt being dominant. He is the lead back and is an every down back. The Chiefs should be ahead in the game by 2-3 possessions, leading to a hefty amount of carries.

Kenyan Drake, 5.8, at the 4th ranked Denver rushing defense. In a battle of putrid offenses, he is essentially the only running back left on the Dolphins. He is also very talented. The volume alone should net him about 10 points, and it only takes one big run to make your day great.

Iron cage lock of the millennium (A guy you should keep in nearly all of your lineups)

Jordan Howard, 7.5, against the 30th ranked SF defense. He is the center piece of their offense and is what makes them go. This game should be close and Howard should have north of 30 carries. You do the math, 30 carries against such a putrid defense… I’d predict about 180 yards and 2 TDs if this game is close. I’m not saying he’ll for sure be the best this week, but his value, his floor, and his ceiling are all great.

WR (Goal for tournament play: 20-25 points)

Oh, you fancy huh?

Julio, 8.6, against the Vikings 12th ranked defense. Rhodes will be closed against Julio today. He will still get his (9.2 Targets per game), but the question lies with his coaches. Did they finally figure him out this season (USE HIM TO GET TDS!!!), or was last week an aberration? I wouldn’t trust him the week. I may use him in one lineup just in case, because this should be a close game that ends up in the low 30s.

Allen, 8.1, against Cleveland’s 14th ranked defense. He has 9.7 targets per game, but hasn’t translated it into anything except for the last 2 games where he had big YAC plays. I’m not a believer in his big play ability, and even if you believe it, so will a lot of other people, so it won’t help you in tournament play. He should do a solid 12-15, but I’m skeptical about anything more.

Hopkins, 8.0, against the Titans. Deandre allowed-to-stiff-arm-with-the-ball-in-the-air Hopkins will hang 20 fantasy points on us, as usual.

Thielen, 7.8, against ATL’s 8th ranked defense. He has 9.7 targets per game. He keeps hanging up big numbers, targets, and TDs with a bad QB. I’m a believer. This game should be high scoring and he should be the biggest beneficiary.

Bold Strategy

Baldwin, 7.7, against the 18th ranked Eagles. Should be a shootout but Wilson spreads it around Only sure bet is that Graham will get red zone targets.

Fitzgerald, 7.4, against the Rams 10th ranked pass defense. They should be down and he is getting 9.6 targets per game with many of them being in the red zone. Usually, the catches are short passes and he doesn’t make much of a splash. He does have boom potential though.

Corey Coleman/Josh Gordon, 5.8, at the 7th ranked Chargers pass defense. Both are recently back, so we have no idea what they’ll do. The team focuses on the RBs. The QB is a rookie with a bad track record. Coleman is the safer bet of the two, and they (Kizer and Coleman) looked great together in the preseason.

It’s real nice, I got it at Target

C. Patterson, 5.5, against the Giants 29th ranked defense. Pray that Geno keeps this game competitive. Patterson is starting and is a big play WR for the Raiders. Both Crabtree and Cooper are OUT. I love Patterson this week, but he is banged up with a hip injury… But I love someone else more.

Seth Roberts, 4.9, against NYG. I LOVE Roberts! Carr is notorious for his dinking and dunking, so Patterson will probably not get many big plays. Roberts is a red zone target (although he hasn’t been as effective this season) even when Cooper and Crabtree were on the field. He is also a safety blanket for Carr. I predict 15 targets, double digit catches, 100+ yards, and 1+ TD for Roberts if this game stays close. This is my highest graded player in terms of value and ceiling. Only thing keeping this from being a lock is the uncertainty of the injury and game flow situation.

The Other Guys

Funchess, 7.5, at New Orleans 15th ranked defense.

Robby Anderson, 7.2, at the 28th ranked KC defense.

Diggs, 7.0, at the 8th ranked Atl defense.

Word to the wise, what really separates your teams in FanDuel is the success of your Kicker, Defense, and Tight End. Every week my team goes off or flops, it is due to these 3 positions. They are also the hardest to predict. Your goal for each of these positions is north of 20 points. A good day for a kicker is 15 points. 30 is amazing for all of them.

TE (Look for a middle value option that produces like a top option)

Oh, you fancy huh?

Gronk, 8.1, at Buffalo. Red zone, volume, yards, and matchups, he has them all. Rarely worth his price though.

Ertz, 7.5, at Seattle. The Seahawks notoriously give up points to Tight Ends, even when healthy, to the tune of being the 12th highest in the league. Now with their all-world safeties and corners ailing, that should only go up. I predict Ertz will be the best TE this week.

Bold Strategy

Kelce, 7.0, at the Jets. 10th highest PPG to TE in the league but Kelce is completely random in his volume.

Graham, 6.7, against Phili. 17th highest PPG to TE and I think he will go off in the shootout. Jimmy Graham is notoriously made of glass and is currently afflicted by a mysterious ankle injury, so his potential is not worth his price.

It’s real nice, I got it at Target

Walker, 6.4, against the 6th highest PPG to TE Texans. Mariota will want a get back game and so will Walker. I expect Walker to run ferociously after the catch against a hobbled Texan defense. I expect Walker to go off in this game, but I also expect him to be doubled all game, leaving a ton of risk.

Doyle, 5.7, at the 14th highest PPG to TE Jags. We know that Doyle is the most targeted pass catcher in that offense and they should be down. If he catches 1 TD with 40 yards, he will be worth his value.

K (Look for potential shootouts and good kickers but also with D’s that are decent in the red zone)

Greg the Leg, 5.3, against Arizona. He got 17 last time against them.

Lutz, 5.0, against Carolina. He got 12 last time.

Succop, 4.8, against Houston. He got 2 last time b/c of the blowout disaster. Ignore that for both of us!

Lambo, 4.6, against Indi. He got 10 last time.

Defenses (Look for rookie QB’s, TO prone teams, and good returners)

Jacksonville, 5.6, against Indi. Last time, Jacksonville sacked them 10 times. We sacked them 8 times last week. Defenses are hard to predict and dependent on lucky touchdown returns, but JAC should give you a solid 20 even without TOs or TDs. They are my defense for every league this week.

LAC, 5.3, against Cleveland. Risky b/c of Kizer’s new weapons, but the guys has been a TO machine. The chargers have also found the defensive end zone a ton this year.