Chad Reuter of NFLDraftScout.com and CBSSports.com has a very interesting article about how quarterbacks have done in the NFL based on where they were selected in the draft. Recent history shows us that finding a franchise quarterback outside of the top two quarterbacks in the draft is highly unlikely:
There is a fair drop-off after the top two quarterbacks, however, with the third-selected player averaging just 2.2 years starting and the group gaining 13 Pro Bowl appearances. Brett Favre is the major contributor to this group, as the numbers drop to 1.3 and two, respectively, without his long-time NFL run. Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, and Josh Freeman are trying to boost those figures, but Bady Quinn and Matt Leinart probably won't help their cause.
Go read the whole article because the stats on the first two quarterbacks taken are pretty astounding.
There are obvious going to be years where even the first two guys don't end up being good. The 2006 draft could end up being one of those drafts with Vince Young trying to pick his career up off the scrap heap, and Matt Leinart being even worse.
I believe this is going to be one of those years where the best quarterbacks end up being the ones taken outside of the first two, but the odds of past drafts are against that theory.