FanPost

A Locker-Luck Comparison


As we all know, Jake Locker struggled last season. Whether the blame is the run game, the offensive-line, his shoulder injury, or just him alone, one thing is for certain.

He threw more picks than touchdowns. That is never a good thing to say about an NFL quarterback.

According to Football Outsiders' adjusted INT statistics, Jake Locker had:

- 11 official interceptions

- 4 interceptions that were dropped by their defenders

- 1 interception that was tipped by a receiver into the defender's hands

- 1 interception that was a garbage-time hail mary.

They have his adjusted interceptions at 13, after subtracting the tipped/desperation picks and adding the dropped interceptions. That's not very good when you've only thrown for 10 TD's on the year.

Though, judging Locker based on his TD-INT ratio in only 11 starts is probably premature.

To that point, let's compare those numbers to another young and inexperienced QB with 17 starts under his belt. That QB is the highly acclaimed and popularized Andrew Luck.

According to Football Outsiders' adjusted INT statistics, Andrew Luck had:

- 18 official interceptions

- 14 interceptions that were dropped by their defenders.

- 1 interception that was tipped by a receiver into the defender's hands.

- 1 interception that was a garbage-time hail mary.

So his adjusted interceptions stand at 30, after subtracting the tipped/desperation picks and adding the fourteen dropped interceptions.

To put this in a bit of perspective:

If defenders had dropped the same number of Locker's passes, then Locker would have ended last season with no interceptions at all.

Maybe this means that Luck is overrated, but I think it means that it's too early to judge either one of these quarterbacks.

Personally, there is something that makes me happy about all this. Luck running out of luck and throwing 25+ picks, while Locker ends up getting it together with an improved offense? That's not a dream. That's not wishful thinking. That is a very real possibility this year.

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