Why I'm OK With The Colts Drafting Andrew Luck.
I suppose "OK with" might be a little misleading. In the end, I'd rather the Colts just draft Jerry Hughes all over again, but that's probably not going to happen. In any case, it's old news (as if it wasn't obvious to begin with) that the Colts do plan on taking Andrew Luck with the first overall pick. While that isn't a fun concept to grasp, I think I might prefer it over the alternative.
Robert Griffin III is unreal. Calling him the consolation prize to whichever QB hungry team misses out on Luck is a travesty because he'd likely be the crown jewel of any other draft without hesitation. There will be doubters, and they'll say things like "Well he's only a prospect, you can't possibly know that his skill set will translate to the NFL well enough to make him worth the top pick." Same went for Manning, same goes for Luck. I don't care how many audibles Andrew Luck called in college, until he's established himself as an NFL quarterback, he's nothing more than a great college player. Right now, I view these two as equals. I'm not yet ready to proclaim Griffin III as "safe" of a pick as Luck is, because he looks a lot like a pretty surefire star, but let's be honest, RGIII was just as impressive this season as Luck was. It's also true that Griffin has only improved during his time at Baylor. As a freshman, he had very similar stats to our own Jake Locker with his low-ish completion percentage and relatively few touchdowns. After not getting much action during his sophomore year, Griffin exploded for 30 total touchdowns and raised his completion percentage to the high 60's as a junior. Of course, in 2011 he entered god-mode and increased his totals in just about every meaningful category en route to the Heisman Trophy.
If this says one thing it's that he's capable of raising his game and will continue to do so once he reaches the NFL, I have very few worries about him being able to harness his incredible amount of talent. To make another unfair comparison, his college numbers blow those of Offensive Rookie of the Year and single season record setter Cam Newton out of the water. He might not have the size of Newton, (only important because it should probably help his durability when he decides to leave the pocket) but his open field quickness and flat-line speed are unmatched at the quarterback position, or really at any other position for that matter. He possesses legitimate 4.3 speed and would have competed for a spot on the U.S. Olympic team as a hurdler had he chosen to pursue track and field over football. For all his smarts and undeniable talent, I don't think Luck has the ceiling of Griffin because of this speed and elusiveness.
For those who question Griffin's passing prowess, find me another quarterback who completed nearly 75% of his passes this season. Now find me a quarterback who can take off and make plays with his legs like Griffin can that still completes 75% of his passes. You can't. Naturally, his legs would help mask any deficiencies he has throwing the ball, which I don't expect him to have. Mind you, they wouldn't completely get rid of them, the quarterback's primary job is to complete passes after all, but assuming he's just an average passer, let's say on par with 2008 Matt Cassel who posted a 108 rate+ with 21 TDs and 11 INTs, you can basically take it to the bank that he'd be infinitely more valuable to a team because of his ability to scramble and get downfield in a hurry. That potential alone puts him up there as one of the best prospects in quite a few years in my mind. Now granted he is a spread offense QB, but others before him have had success and he really does look like he has great downfield accuracy you look for in a pro-style player. Plus, his pocket awareness is absolutely on point. He senses pressure, breaks out of it, and then becomes exceedingly more dangerous than he was just a couple of seconds ago. His accuracy on the run rivals Jake Locker's. He will absolutely pick defenses apart with this blend of skills. Finally, from what I've heard, it sounds like Griffin had a whole lot of control of Baylor's offense, meaning he was making pre-snap reads and adjusting his plays accordingly. That means he's at got an idea of what being a pro quarterback will be like at a young age. I'm not trying to stir anything up, but if Luck's a five-star general, Griffin's at least a three at this point with considerable room for improvement. I'm just spitballing here, but we're currently at a very innovative time in the NFL, I'd like to at least see the spread offense in action before we call it completely asinine. It's not hard to imagine a team building a new system around a talent like Griffin.
Finally, I'd like to put the Ryan Leaf/Peyton Manning comparison to rest right now. Leaf was nowhere near the prospect that Griffin is. He was inaccurate and kind of a whack job. In any case, I'm not sure I'd like to see either of these guys end up in Indianapolis, but I'll say this; Andrew Luck is unsettling, RGIII is downright terrifying.
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I have been trying to say this:
I don’t care how many audibles Andrew Luck called in college, until he’s established himself as an NFL quarterback, he’s nothing more than a great college player
for months, well done.
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I'm hoping this is the case.
Just because he calls his own plays at the college level doesn’t mean it’ll carry over to the pros, plus that Colts offense as it currently is is tailor-made to Manning, who effectively serves as hi own OC. How will it change should Luck become the pick? How many new personnel will he have around him? I’m sure guys like Jacob Tamme and Pierre Garcon won’t look nearly as good of players as Manning made them appear to be.
Banned from Stampede Blue for comments made on MCM. Yes, I am a champion.
by ronburgundy7427 on Feb 5, 2012 2:07 PM CST up reply actions
I am sure the O-line will look like the hot-mess they were this season without Pey Pey back there as well.
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If we had sucess playing against a first ballot HOFer(Manning) two and sometimes three times a year, I think we as a franchise can handle Luck.
Even if he lives up to his hype.
"There are a lot of plays to be made out there playing middle linebacker. I try to make all of them." by Colin McCarthy
Great write up D.Reese. Remember this is a copycat league, the thought of having a Cam Newton type QB has to have GMs drooling.
"There are a lot of plays to be made out there playing middle linebacker. I try to make all of them." by Colin McCarthy
The Colts have no real reason to hide which QB they want since they have the 1st pick…
… so I think they will definitely take Luck, anyways.
Seems like they’d consider his last name a perfect tie-in for themselves.
A guy named “Luck” on a team that sports a horseshoe on their helmets…
.
I had to stop arguing with drunks, Steeler fans, and all other fools.
It was making my brick wall jealous...
.
Dedicated to the "Pride of the Steelers"
.
I would hate to watch us play the Colts if....
they draft RGIII! They have finally hit the bottom of the barrel and drafting Griffin will put them right back at the top!
I just don't trust any QB coming out of the Big 12.
Never have, never will until the historical trend is bucked. One of the reasons why I wasn’t confident in VY initially. Not comparing RG3 to him (and I put this here because there’s always someone who keys in on a single name and starts complaining), but Big 12 QBs are very much a barren wasteland historically.
If RG3 proves me wrong, then good on him. I’m not expecting him too, though, and that’s only because of the conference in which he played his college ball. Is that a generalization? Certainly. Is it unfair? Maybe, but history is on my side on this one. We’ll see how it plays out, but I’m not expecting him to do well.
Just because RGIII might be awesome, that doesn't affect how good Luck can be.
And it shouldn’t have any bearing on how we feel about the Colts drafting him.
That said, I agree that there’s it’s still a toss up. He looks like he could be an incredible prospect, but you never know till you see it on the field.
"Do the Titans have a miracle left in them in what has been a magical season to this point? If they do, they need it now. Christie kicks it high and short. Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25; he dishes it back to Wycheck; he throws it across the field to Dyson. 30, 40, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10, 5, endzone...touchdown, Titans! There are no flags on the field! It's a miracle! Tennessee has pulled a miracle! A miracle for the Titans!"
by TennesseeTyrants on Feb 6, 2012 12:14 AM CST reply actions
Good stuff Reese.
Last year when calling for the Titans to draft Dalton, I mentioned this quote from an article on Wired.com:
There are two interesting takeaways from this study. The first is that there’s a major contradiction between how we measure talent and the causes of talent. In general, we measure talent using tests of maximal performance. Think, for instance, of the NFL Combine: Players perform in short bursts (40 yard dash, short IQ test, catching drills, etc.) under conditions of high motivation. The purpose of the event is to see what players are capable of, to determine the scope of their potential. The problem with these tests, however, is that the real world doesn’t resemble the NFL Combine. Instead, success in the real world depends on sustained performance, on being able to work hard at practice, and spend the weekend studying the playbook, and reviewing hours of game tape. Those are all versions of deliberate practice, and our ability to engage in such useful exercises largely depends on levels of grit. The problem, of course, is that grit can’t be measured in a single afternoon on a single field. (By definition, it’s a metric of personality that involves long periods of time.) The end result is that our flawed beliefs about talent have led to flawed tests of talent. Perhaps that explains why there is no "consistent statistical relationship between combine tests and professional football performance." We need to a test that measures how likely people are to show up, not just how they perform once there.Basically, the article suggests that the trait that separates great from good is grit. Based on this kid’s character and track record, he’s got it. The way he got to where is creates an important distinction between him and Vince Young and a young Mike Vick. RGIII was recruited as an athlete by virtually every coach in the country not named Art Briles. He had the physical tools, but wasn’t a polished passer coming out of high school. So, all those gaudy stats you see. All the flashy deep balls. That’s all from hours upon hours of reps.
There’s no guarantees with any prospect. But for my money, good character + freaky athleticism + great intelligence + relentless work ethic = a recipe for a superstar.
That last line sounds a lot like the way we might describe our own QB in waiting.
Though compared to RGIII, his athleticism isn’t “freaky” I guess.
"Do the Titans have a miracle left in them in what has been a magical season to this point? If they do, they need it now. Christie kicks it high and short. Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25; he dishes it back to Wycheck; he throws it across the field to Dyson. 30, 40, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10, 5, endzone...touchdown, Titans! There are no flags on the field! It's a miracle! Tennessee has pulled a miracle! A miracle for the Titans!"
by TennesseeTyrants on Feb 6, 2012 8:58 AM CST up reply actions

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