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Just How Average Was Matt Hasselbeck in 2011?

NASHVILLE, TN - NOVEMBER 27:   Matt Hasselbeck #8 of the Tennessee Titans throws a pass under pressure from DeQuan Bowers #91 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at LP Field on November 27, 2011 in Nashville, Tennessee.  The Titans defeated the Buccaneers 23 to 17.  (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

The short answer, unsurprisingly, is very, very average. But let's look closer and see what made him just so darn intermediate.

Starting off with some of the more traditional stats, we'll painstakingly break down his first year in Tennessee.

Star-divide

If there's one thing that Matt had going for him in 2011 it's that he was very accurate. No one can deny that his completion percentage of 61.6 is something to be ignored. That's really a very good number, especially given that he was working without Kenny Britt. Let's give credit where credit is due though, Nate Washington cutting down on the drops this year played a role in the slight bump in accuracy from Hasselbeck's past three seasons. All of this adds up to him being the tenth most accurate, or at least the tenth most completion-prone, quarterback in football. Not bad. All in all, it was his best season since 2007. Get used to hearing that a lot.

Yardage and its' sub-categories, yards per attempt, yards per completion, etc. also looked better than they have since his magical 07 year. Yardage is highly imperfect, but I think it's still notable that Hasselbeck posted the first 3,500 yard season for a Tennessee quarterback since Warren Moon. That honestly shocked me and showed me just how much the game has changed in a very short period of time. No way McNair wins an MVP in today's game without surpassing 3,500 yards, but I digress, Hasselbeck's yardage total was a pleasant surprise, though it still wasn't elite. 3,571 yards, good for 14th best in the league. That's pretty darn average, but it was also an incredible year with gross yardage totals that we've never seen before. Yards per attempt and completion are less kind to Hass, but considering the incredibly insignificant difference of half a yard separating him and top 15 territory, I think it's safe to say that 6.9 y/a isn't such a bad sum either. As far as yards per completion, it's more of the same. He ranks 29th with 11.2, but move up ten spots to 19th and you still have only 11.7. It's a very inconsequential difference. While his rank may be low, he was still within spitting distance of Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, and surprisingly enough, Drew Brees. I can live with that.

As far as touchdowns and interceptions go, there really isn't much to say here. An 18/14 ratio isn't ideal, but people went crazy over Andy Dalton (I know, I know, he's a rookie) posting a similar ratio when all he did was lob it up to A.J. Green. However, a relatively large amount of attempts (just over 520 in this case) combined with a low number of touchdowns equals a low touchdown percentage. Only 3.5% of Hasselbeck's passes were for scores. It hurts when the best statistical receiver goes down in game three, but it still isn't a great number. In any case, it was his highest number since, you guessed it, 2007.

Let's move on to something more advanced to get a better picture of Hasselbeck's 2011 season. These next stats are all based on a scale where 100 is average. Spoiler alert; he's really close to 100 in just about all of them. In all categories, higher is better. For a better explanation:

Next, we computed how many standard deviations away from the league average each player was in each of his seasons. We multiply that number by 15 and add it to 100, and that is the number you see. First, for each stat for each year for each league, we computed two things:

1. the league average for that stat in that league during the three-year period with the given year in the middle. For example, the "league average" for the 1963 AFL would be the aggregate average of the stats accumulated in the AFL from 1962 to 1964. (NOTE: the 1960 AFL and the 1969 AFL, as well as the current season, will be based on only two years worth of data rather than three.)

2. the standard deviation of the stat for all individuals who had 14 or more pass attempts per scheduled game during the three-year period.

The stats I'll use here are completion% +, TD% +, INT% +, sack % +, and finally rate +. Generally, they tell us what we already knew. Hasselbeck's completion% rates 104, basically four points higher than your average starting quarterback, about what we expected. TD% and INT% rate 91 and 103 respectively. This is just a typical snapshot of a conservative quarterback. He's good at preventing turnovers, but at the same time he's not going to win you the game by himself. Somewhere where Hasselbeck was well above average: sack % +. At first I was willing to give Hass some credit for escaping pressure, a lot of sack prevention falls on the QB after all, but then I checked his numbers in Seattle and it's clear that a 20 point jump doesn't just happen in your age 36 season. Finally, rate +. Rate + spits out the most Matt Hasselbeck number ever: 98. He was literally just below average. So close, Matt, right on the cusp, but we love you anyway, thanks for a decent great season, I think I speak for most of us when I say that stable play at the quarterabck position went beyond the numbers in this case.

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Statistics are pointless wins and losses are all that matters look at denver

I watch the Music City Miracle every time I visit MCM just because I can

by alijeal on Feb 12, 2012 8:29 PM CST reply actions  

that Tebow sure is a good kicker/running back/outside linebacker!

we're gonna skate to one song and one song only.

by D. Reese on Feb 12, 2012 8:33 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Tebow improved that entire team though,

When Orton was qb they had great stats but lost was my point not some adherence to tebow. Although i will say this their defence went from crap to good and the only change was at qb.

I watch the Music City Miracle every time I visit MCM just because I can

by alijeal on Feb 12, 2012 11:35 PM CST up reply actions  

noted, guess I’m just touchy about the whole subject. on one hand, I’ve got a soft spot for him because I just like his attitude and heart and all that, but at the same time he was just such a bad quarterback that trying to justify him as a starter is going to be really hard to do going forward.

Orton put up big numbers because he was throwing all the time because his team was always losing. Tebow didn’t throw a whole lot because a.) he runs an option offense and b.) more importantly, their defense kept them in a lot of games, giving them a chance to do what they do best and feed Willis McGahee.

he’s a better pro QB than I thought he’d be, but that’s not saying much, once NFL teams a year’s worth of film on him and that gimmicky offense I feel like it’s going to blow up in their faces big time.

we're gonna skate to one song and one song only.

by D. Reese on Feb 12, 2012 11:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Hasselbeck managed to stay just barely below average with the receivers we put on the field...

There’s not a stat for that, but it’s still awesome.

[disclaimer: this poster has no idea what the hell he's talking about.]

Jake Locker > Peyton Manning

The Official MCM Idiot

by fanoftheunderdogs on Feb 12, 2012 8:38 PM CST reply actions  

99% of fans claim their receivers are the reason their offense is bad.

Our receivers weren’t that bad. Hasselbeck wasn’t throwing to himself. They helped him to that 62% completion rate. They actually made some great plays. Nate took it to a new level, that wasn’t the old Nate. The jags have bad receivers, ours are average like hasselbeck. I honestly think our receivers have a bad Rep because the past 5 years we have had awful qbs throwing to them.

by E-Locker on Feb 12, 2012 9:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

"Our receivers weren't that bad."

Yes, yes they were. I have yet to find something supporting Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins.

Actually, that’s not completely true- did you know Hawkins had only 3 drops this year? I’m a little skeptical of PFF’s work though, because I’d be pretty confident saying he dropped more than three throws.

You have been banned from Stampede Blue.
You apparently aren't interested in commenting on the Colts, but instead just want to take shots at editors for how we manage our blog. Thus, you're now no longer welcome.

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Feb 12, 2012 10:01 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

That's what I heard about Hawk

problem is, he’s usually lined up wrong or running the wrong routes. Get that solved and he might actually be a decent receiver.

You have been banned from Stampede Blue.
Calling a site admin a ‘fuhrer’ gets you banned without warning.
The Saint of MCM

by StPrattrick on Feb 12, 2012 10:24 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

they’re that bad. really though.

we're gonna skate to one song and one song only.

by D. Reese on Feb 12, 2012 10:23 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Hass performed just below average

On a team where Nate Washington is your #1 and the running game doesn’t exist.

But that’s the guy he is. We gave him time to throw, protected him well, and he was a conservative game manager. He’s the QB we needed last season to offer us some stability.

I also think that quality is going to make him an ideal back up for the next few years while we’re breaking in our new future MVP QB.

"Do the Titans have a miracle left in them in what has been a magical season to this point? If they do, they need it now. Christie kicks it high and short. Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25; he dishes it back to Wycheck; he throws it across the field to Dyson. 30, 40, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10, 5, endzone...touchdown, Titans! There are no flags on the field! It's a miracle! Tennessee has pulled a miracle! A miracle for the Titans!"

by TennesseeTyrants on Feb 12, 2012 9:00 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

I think Hasselbeck was about average this year, so I agree with your conclusion.

Strongly dislike the use of rating, or rate+ though. The strength of the argument lies in TD:INT and accuracy. Even yardage is influenced a ton by receivers and schemes.

One other thing I’d be interested in but couldn’t find- weren’t we solid in the red zone this year?

You have been banned from Stampede Blue.
You apparently aren't interested in commenting on the Colts, but instead just want to take shots at editors for how we manage our blog. Thus, you're now no longer welcome.

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Feb 12, 2012 9:16 PM CST reply actions  

I love rate +. QB rating not so much.

just from the eye test it would seem that way, I couldn’t really find anything either after a quick scanning of google. for whatever it’s worth, we were 10th in the league last year though too.

we're gonna skate to one song and one song only.

by D. Reese on Feb 12, 2012 9:27 PM CST up reply actions  

What site did you get rate+ from?

You have been banned from Stampede Blue.
You apparently aren't interested in commenting on the Colts, but instead just want to take shots at editors for how we manage our blog. Thus, you're now no longer welcome.

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Feb 12, 2012 9:30 PM CST up reply actions  

pro football reference

we're gonna skate to one song and one song only.

by D. Reese on Feb 12, 2012 10:23 PM CST up reply actions  

In my mind he was so much better than average

And thankfully, that’s all that matters to me. But seriously, hasselbeck rocked this season, especially given all of the extraneous factors that affected the season.
The lockout, all new coaches and system for him to learn and etc, number one receiver going down in game 3, complete and utter running game implosion, and probably more factors I’m currently forgetting. Hasselbeck was the rockstar we needed him to be this year. Anyone that thinks differently or less of him is just ignorant.

BBS: Where logic goes to die... See below

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2011/9/6/2409457/dont-rule-out-collins

by Chris Colgan on Feb 12, 2012 9:54 PM CST via Android app reply actions   2 recs

damn straight, he was statistically the best quarterback we’ve had since 03 when McNair won the MVP, anyone who says that he wasn’t an great change of pace from the drudgery of 8 years of shitty QB play is out of their mind.

we're gonna skate to one song and one song only.

by D. Reese on Feb 13, 2012 12:39 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

A

Greed.

You have been banned from Stampede Blue.
Calling a site admin a ‘fuhrer’ gets you banned without warning.
The Saint of MCM

by StPrattrick on Feb 13, 2012 1:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I dunno man.

I’m thinking Britt would’ve only ended up with maybe 2500 or 3000. But i like your optimism!!

BBS: Where logic goes to die... See below

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2011/9/6/2409457/dont-rule-out-collins

by Chris Colgan on Feb 12, 2012 10:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Thank you kindly sir.

did I say 4 thousand ha these long days of work, i meant 4 million. puts pinky up to mouth like doctor evil

by Mikeyy on Feb 12, 2012 11:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Locker will see playing time next year.

Be it because he wins out in camp or because Hass gets injured.

Either way, QB situation looks pretty sexy going forward.

Now if we could just keep Britt on the GODDAMN FIELD

by FYNBYAC on Feb 13, 2012 4:35 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I think he should be fine this year since.......

Nate and Cook have finally stepped up! Seemed like Britt was the only option! They gave him the ball too much!

by datboybevans on Feb 13, 2012 6:46 AM CST up reply actions  

i think the titans really did a great job with bringing in hasselbeck and locker.

I can only imagine what the stats would have been like with adequate run blocking and kenny britt.

by CJ2K shrine on Feb 13, 2012 1:41 PM CST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

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