Grantlands NFL Titans season preview

Tennessee Titans

Odds of winning the AFC South: N/A

In some ways, the Titans are the inverse of the Bears: a team that was actually better than its 6-10 record. In fact, DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, the Football Outsiders efficiency statistic) suggests that the Titans were actually the better team last year. Tennessee outscored its opposition by 17 points, which would usually produce a record with 8.5 wins, not six. Its 5-5 start with a combination of Vince Young and Kerry Collins at the helm yielded to a 1-5 finish after Young was placed on IR with a finger injury and gave way to Rusty Smith, who produced a three-interception start against the Texans, the worst pass defense in recent memory. Collins mopped up to finish the year, but hope was lost. With better health at quarterback and a bit of luck, they could contend in a weak division, right?

Not with the offseason they had. After seemingly awarding Jeff Fisher the victory in his battle with Vince Young, the team fired Fisher at the end of January and quickly hired offensive line coach Mike Munchak to take on the head-coaching duties. Munchak has no experience as a coordinator at any level, and his primary skill, beyond having been a great player, appears to be discipline. The last time a team made this sort of hire was when the 49ers hired Mike Singletary in 2008, and Singletary was the worst coach I've ever seen. The offensive coordinator is Chris Palmer, who hasn't run a successful NFL offense in 13 years. They lost legendary defensive line coach Jim Washburn to the Eagles. Does this sound like a situation waiting to blossom?

The personnel department didn't do all that well, either. Needing a replacement for Young, they went out and signed Matt Hasselbeck to serve as the bridge to their first-round pick, Jake Locker. You can never write off a first-round pick before he actually plays in the NFL, but you can come awful close with Locker, who fits an archetype that has been doomed at the pro level. Quarterbacks with huge cannons for arms who struggled with accuracy at the college level almost always bust at the pro level, and while Locker can make any throw you want with zip to spare, he completed less than 54 percent of his throws at the college level. There's no translation yet that tells you what that means at the pro level, but guys just don't develop accuracy at the professional level that they didn't show in college. Among modern quarterbacks, Locker's college numbers are in a class with players such as Matt Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Boller, and Ryan Leaf. Even if Locker does develop into a competent pro quarterback, it's going to take a couple of seasons, and with Hasselbeck's injury history, we know that Locker's going to have to suit up at some point in 2010. He's not going to be ready.

There just seems to be a pall over this organization right now. Kenny Britt got arrested three times during the lockout. Chris Johnson held out for a megacontract and finally got one when the Titans gave in to his demands. Cortland Finnegan tried to hold out and got caught lying about it. These aren't the sort of things that happen in healthy organizations during the tail end of training camp. Then again, the same sort of pall was hanging over the Giants before the 2007 season, and then Michael Strahan showed up and they played like crap for 2½ games before winning the Super Bowl. And while the coaching staff is questionable, there are a lot of talented players here. Tennessee has one of the league's best offensive lines, and while everyone knows about Johnson and Britt by now, tight end Jared Cook is about to have a breakout season. They have more to be hopeful about than, say, the Bears. But I'm still very skeptical.

Best-case scenario: An unexpectedly high-octane offense emerges as the best attack in the AFC South.

Worst-case scenario: They echo the 2004 Giants, as a decent start from their veteran quarterback gives way to an overmatched stretch by their rookie.