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Ron Burgundy's Fantasy Football Guide 2011

First off, thanks to JustinS for being cool with me butting in on his fantasy writings, I look forward to reading the rest of those throughout the season. I don't think there will be any overlap between what he's already done and what I want to do here. I'm going to avoid talking about guys like Vick, CJ and Rodgers as we all know what kind of production they get.

I want to take a look at three different kind of players in relation to fantasy football this season and what we could expect from them. I'm going to break them down into three categories, the "One Year Wonders" such as Arian Foster, "Boom or Bust" guys (Roy Williams...), and a few sleepers to consider. 

In honor of our favorite SI columnist Peter King I'll also throw in "Some Things I Think I Think I Learned" based off of the Official MCM League draft.

Happy drafting/fantasy season!

One Year Wonders

Arian Foster - Damn you Autopick! Beyond his recent hammy issues, Foster has been vastly overhyped and overrated in the fantasy world. He put up a great year, but with Ben Tate coming off an injury, I see him taking some goal-line and short-yardage carries away from Foster, who will probably see his total rushing yards drop to somewhere in the 1,200 range, and his TD total definitely drop from 16 with Tate back. I don't see Foster being worth a first overall or even Top 5 pick this year (more on that later...)

Peyton Hillis - Besides the fact that StPrattrick took him in the Official MCM League draft and that he's the Madden 12 cover boy and therefore cursed...he's got Montario Hardesty coming back from injury which will likely take away carries from him (notice a trend here?). Hillis had 1100 yards and 11 TDs last year, I would expect under 1000 and definitely single-digit TDs from him this year.

Dwane Bowe - This isn't necessarily due to him but the team he plays for. Kansas City is going to play a much tougher schedule this year, including away games with the Colts, Patriots and Bears. His 15 TD total is likely to drop from last year.

Rob Gronkowski - I think Aaron Hernandez is going to come on this year and take away catches and TDs from him; had 10 last year.

Brandon Lloyd - If there is one thing Josh McDouchebag can be credited for during his Denver tenure, it's turning Lloyd into a 1,000+ receiver with 11 TDs. Unfortunately for him, John Fox is a run-first guy. However, the Broncos are probably going to be playing from behind a lot so I could be wrong on this one.

Boom or Bust

Chad Ochocinco - Could be the second coming of Randy Moss to the Patriots, or could do nothing. Last season the Patriots threw more to the TEs, and I think that will continue, and Wes Welker will continue to be Brady's favorite WR. Plus Prattrick took him too.

Roy Williams - I took him later in the MCM draft thinking that he would come in and be a great sleeper. Now, I'm not so sure. He could still put it all together and physically is the most talented guy for the Bears, but has looked terrible this preseason. Here's hoping he does the former.

CJ Spiller - He's got home-run running potential but hasn't lived up to it thus far in Buffalo. Fred Jackson is the likely starter so draft at your own risk.

Colt McCoy - Seemed to come on last year and show signs of being a possible franchise QB, but that division has two tough defenses and I don't think he has any good weapons to throw to.

Brandon Marshall - Through no fault of his own, but he's got Chad Henne throwing to him. He's got the talent to still put up some yards, but the guy only had three TDs last year. Is that really going to change much this year?

Sleepers

Ryan Mathews - First-round pick sucked it up his rookie year. Still, with Rivers as his QB he could find space to run.

Greg Olson - Cammy Cam is going to be the QB in Carolina, which means he'll be looking to the TE as an outlet guy a lot. 

Titus Young - This hinges on Stafford staying healthy, but with Megatron on the other side of the field, he could get quite a few balls thrown his way.

Luke Stocker - With Kellen Winslow being banged up, I'm putting him on here as an extreme sleeper.

Willis McGahee - I've got one Bronco as a one-year wonder, I think McGahee could be a quality flex or sub guy playing in Denver.

"Things I Think I Think I Learned From the Official MCM League Draft" or "A Tribute to a Tool of an SI Writer"

1. I think I learned that you should wait until later to take a QB in the draft. I took Pey-Pey with the first pick of round three, and while I can't complain too much about the production (knock on wood) that will likely come from him, there were some good starting-caliber QBs later on.

2. Ditto for TEs, there are some good starting-caliber ones to be had in the later rounds.

2. I think I learned that when you have flex positions that are WR/RB, when in doubt, go RB. They're likely to at least see some carries that could get points; with a WR, you just never know whether they'll have any catches or not (this obviously does not apply to superstars like Fitzgerald).

3. I think I learned that in a snake draft, I like having back-to-back picks, but hated having to wait so long between them (had the first pick overall, then had to wait until end of second round to pick again).

4. I think I learned that I hate Yahoo's generic rankings. They go strictly off of last season, we all know the NFL is full of parity and just because one guy (Foster!) produced last season does not mean he should be crowned the number one prospect this year.

5. I KNOW I learned that I hate damn autopick for giving me Arian Foster because I was two minutes late for the draft.

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