No Rings: Enough To Keep McNair Out Of The HOF?
One of the most frequent arguments I hear against Steve McNair's case for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame is the fact that he lacks what all players strive to achieve; the Super Bowl Ring. Forget for a moment that his stats were maybe worthy of consideration for Canton, let's just assume that he had stats similar to some of history's finest QB's who never won a championship like Warren Moon and Dan Fouts. Obviously, he'd be inducted as both of them have been, yet he still lacks a Super Bowl title, so he'd never be considered for the "all time greats" club" reserved for players who have (oddly enough) lesser stats, but a glut of Super Bowl rings.
Occasionally, we're treated to a special player like Tom Brady, Joe Montana, or Troy Aikman who has the best of both worlds; awesome stats and multiple rings. However, it's come to my attention that a surprising amount of history's greatest "winners" have, at best iffy, at worst pedestrian, statistical outputs.
Let's play player A, B, and C. I'll give you three anonymous stat lines of three quarterbacks, you tell me whose resume is most impressive.
Player A.
50.1 comp. %, 27,663 yds, 173 TD, 220 INT.
1x Pro Bowler, 2x AFL MVP, 1 Super Bowl win.
Player B.
51.9 comp %, 27,989 yds, 212 TD, 210 INT.
3x Pro Bowler, 1x NFL MVP, 3 Super Bowl wins.
Player C.
60.1 comp %, 31,304 yds, 174 TD, 119 INT.
3x Pro Bowler, 1x NFL MVP, 0 Super Bowl wins.
Players A and B are currently in the Hall of Fame. Player B, Terry Bradshaw, posted some solid, though somewhat underwhelming stats considering his reputation as an all-time great. His four Super Bowl wins are no impressive, but as we all know, winning the big one on the back of the some of the greatest defense of all time is so easy that Trent Dilfer could do it. Sometimes, though it's very rare, all you have to do is be barely competent enough to hold down a starting job and a ring is there for the taking. It's not that he was a bad QB, he was by most accounts a very good one, but perhaps he might have benefited from a system that featured A.) a historically strong running game, B.) a historically strong defense, and C.) a historically good wide receiver corp.
Player A is basically indefensible when you take his name off the stats. After some research, I've discovered that during the years he was active, he ranks 33rd in completion percentage and 28th in QB rating. No matter how you slice it, that's pretty damn awful. I can't even use the "different era" excuse for this guy, some astoundingly mediocre players were getting it done back then, he wasn't. Player A is the most frustrating anomaly in NFL history: Joe Namath. I have yet to find a stat that leads me to believe that he's an elite quarterback for any era. He completely gets by on the perception that he was a good player and has a hard time backing it up. Were it not for "the guarantee" or whatever they're calling it, I have my doubts that he'd be remembered as much of anything. I don't think he's necessarily awful and he was certainly popular enough in his day, but does this guy really belong with some of football's best?
Also; can I get something off of my chest? Let's get something straight, Johnny Unitas was the one who revolutionized the QB position. He was the one who made the QB more important to a gameplan. Instead of just managing the game, Unitas was able to do things that greatly contributed to his team's success. The quarterback is the most important player on a team. This has rung true since the 1950's, Bill Walsh and the West Coast Offense didn't make that up so comparing eras really won't get you very far with me.
If you haven't guessed it by now, Steve McNair is Player C. He ranks ahead of at least one of his enshrined counterparts in some key categories such as touchdowns, yards, lack of interceptions, and completion percentage, and yet here we sit saying that he won't make it in like it's a fact. Perhaps it is a fact, perhaps he won't make it in, but before I rule anything out, let's look at his legacy and intangibles. Steve McNair was one of the toughest players, not quarterbacks, players to ever suit up. Everyone here knows that. He sometimes seemed to will his team to victory while playing through some absurd injury that he wasn't planning on revealing until after the game was over. That in itself is a legacy. He was also an extremely active community man and was beloved by the general public. He also had an interesting and heartwarming back story. These are some of the things that made Steve most memorable to many. That alone isn't enough to garner consideration, but they don't exactly detract from the argument either. Sometimes, the Hall of Fame isn't just about having an awesome career, but even if it were just about numbers, he should probably at least garner consideration on those grounds too.
But the fact still remains that McNair is ringless. He was the starting QB of a team who came up one yard short and was bested by the Greatest Show on Turf. I'm not really one who likes to just say "close enough", but this seems to be a special case. The Rams were a dynasty, he was one yard away from making that all not happen. They would have gone down as chronic underachievers, losers of two Super Bowls in three years, choke artists, whatever you now call the San Diego Chargers of the mid-late 00's. Few players have ever come that close. Few will ever come that close again.
McNair being kept out also brings back the asinine argument that if a team underachieves and never wins a Super Bowl, it's the quarterback's fault. I can't wrap my mind around how this makes any sense at all. Does Peyton Manning play defense? Does he also kick? Maybe he took over in the return game and was a one man wrecking crew as a special teams ace too? No? None of those things ever happened? Oh, so then logic should dictate that when the defense coughs up a lead and costs him a chance to go to the Super Bowl that it's not his fault, right? Nope, not according to the ring snobs who only care about da vast quantitiy of wunz and the "clutchness" of Terry Bradshaw chilling on the sideline while the Steel Curtain bails him out again and wins him another one. I bet that if John Elway hadn't finally gotten that big win in '97 that there would be folks questioning his credentials too. A lot of people say that you play the game not to put up big stats but to win rings. Well, in my experience, a team with a player that puts up ridiculous stats, the better the chance they have of winning a Super Bowl. When you combine a whole bunch of these players on to one roster, your chances go up drastically. Funny how that works isn't it?
Look, I recognize that the QB is probably the most important position in sports. He's the game manager, but that only goes so far. He can't control what the defense or the special teams do. It's exactly like glorifying the pitcher win stat in baseball. If we're going by wins, C.C. Sabathia has been the best player in baseball over the last 3 years. Anyone who watches the game will tell you that it's simply not true. It's a pretty well established fact that he's a damn good player, but not the best. He benefits from excellent run support and defense which in turn inflate his win totals. It's a very basic concept that seems to translate well to most sports, yet for some reason we refuse to apply it to quarterbacks.
So, in conclusion, I don't really know if McNair should be in the Hall of Fame, his stats are excellent, but not too excellent, but the fact that he never won the Super Bowl shouldn't be the reason that he's kept out.
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Stats are era-dependent
Compare apples-to-apples, and players to their peers. A good stat is ANY/A+, Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt Plus, compared to a player’s peers. For Namath we have to use AY/A+, which does not include sack data, for some years of his career, but we can be relatively confident his ANY/A+ is at least as good, comparatively speaking, as his AY/A+, from the years of data we have and his defining quick release.
The other thing we need to do is set a rough baseline. PFR, from which the data, normalizes to 100, so, with round numbers, let’s set a baseline of 110, 10% better than a league-average quarterback as a good season. Let’s also throw out small-sample size seasons; if a QB doesn’t start a majority of his team’s games, it doesn’t count.
How do the three QBs stack up in this measure?
Namath: 4 (plus a 109)
Bradshaw: 7 (note his career totals are depressed by poor early years on untalented teams)
McNair: 3
The fact is that Steve McNair only had three particularly good seasons, 2001-2003. He just wasn’t good enough for long enough, and that’ll be more than enough to keep him out of serious Hall of Fame consideration.
I’m kind of wary about era-to-era, I recognize that as time changes, so does the game, but at the same time, talent is talent no matter how you slice it. Lynn Swan is an example I like to look at. not great career stats at all, but he gets the benefit of the doubt because he made some amazing plays every once in awhile and played in a different era. I mean, yeah, but Steve Largent did alright for himself. there are a lot of different angles you can take.
sure, I agree and accept the fact that he probably won’t get in based on numbers alone, I can deal with that, and the numbers on Namath are interesting to me, very thought provoking considering his career lines, but I guess my argument is that quarterbacks with HOF fringe numbers shouldn’t be dis included because of a lack of Super Bowl wins.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Jul 10, 2011 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Remember the Keltner List
If a player with borderline statistics is going to be a viable Hall of Fame candidate, they need some sort of other boost to their resume (“Is there any reason to think this player was better than his numbers indicate?”). Most frequently, that’s a ring or two.
Namath benefits from the ring, the guarantee, and what he and SB3 meant to the AFL. Bradshaw obviously benefits from the 4 rings, and that he turned into a really good quarterback the second half of his career. For Kurt Warner (whose HOF candidacy I currently oppose), it’ll be his impressive total playoff resume at least as much as the one ring he did get.
It doesn’t have to be rings, though, and Moon is a great example of that. The Pro Football Hall doesn’t reward pure stat-compilers the same way baseball does, and I’m not sure a hypothetical QB with Moon’s resume only makes it. With his pioneering status and the first 6 years in Canada, plus exceptional longevity (he was older than Brett Favre his last year as a starter), that was enough to get him in.
Mac9, as much as we loved him, doesn’t have any of that: not the ring, not the playoff success, not great stats, not longevity, not a real pioneer, nothing, and for that reason, he’s not a serious HOF candidate.
by NewsToTom on Jul 11, 2011 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great comment.
It’s such a damn shame Robertson and Bishop were hurt. This would be a completely different conversation.
Official MCM Hater!
"MY GOD WEST STOP THE VY HATE!!!!!!!!!!!!"
1 ring wouldnt change things
Especially on a defense/Eddie team. Plunkett has 2, and I doubt he’ll ever get in. 3 probably or 4 would have, particularly playing well in the playoffs.
by NewsToTom on Jul 13, 2011 2:45 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
i object to the CC Sabathia statement. he is one of the best if not the best pitcher in the league.
But back to the post. I feel that not winning a superbowl prevents alot of players from being mentioned in HOF discussion. You can even use eddie george as an example. Close but that 0 in the superbowl column eliminates him from consideration. But then you look at guys who didnt have the impressive stats but won superbowls you have to wonder. Is it more based on the voters preference
EAPN? yea that was me
He's definitely not
the best in the league… I love the dude, but not the best
by Big Bad Bulluck on Jul 11, 2011 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions
If you can
Can you compare Steve McNair to the guys who never won a superbowl..
Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, ect. I am curious to what kind of stats it took for them to get in without a Ring
all have 35,000+ yards and 237+ TDS (including a staggering 420 from Marino). there are other stats I could pull out that show they were all better than McNair, but those are the most obvious.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Jul 11, 2011 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions
As much as I like McNair..
He was never in the top QBs of the league conversations. He was though as hell, but I guess he never brought fear to the opponents facing them.
I mean, if you look at his peers at the time he played his best seasons, if you needed to chose a team you wanted to avoid playing because of their QB, there were some teams before you picked the titans (and i´m biased to overrating the titans). He was very good, but not great.
Of course, stats don´t come close to reveal how good he played. His heart can´t be translated into stats.
Unfortunately, I think he will never get a real shot at HOF. But one can argue that his style of play and heart will have impacted the game more than some of the better stats QBs that do get into the Hall.
McNair
without a doubt brought fear to the team he was facing in his prime. And for a couple of years he was most certainly in the top QBs of the league conversations. He one an MVP award so he would have to be. McNair was great at times, just not for long enough. Whether it was due to injuries, or the teams style of play, just didn’t do it long enough.
by Big Bad Bulluck on Jul 11, 2011 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions
There is no one I'd like to see get into the HOF more than McNair.
It probably won’t happen, but I would love to see it.
"Do the Titans have a miracle left in them in what has been a magical season to this point? If they do, they need it now. Christie kicks it high and short. Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25; he dishes it back to Wycheck; he throws it across the field to Dyson. 30, 40, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10, 5, endzone...touchdown, Titans! There are no flags on the field! It's a miracle! Tennessee has pulled a miracle! A miracle for the Titans!"
by TennesseeTyrants on Jul 11, 2011 8:52 AM CDT reply actions
Aikman had the stats?
WTH? He was good – but not HOF-worthy by himself. He’s in the Hall because of Irvin, Smith and that awesome OL.
6 years of AY/A (the stat I learned about last night in the post above) above 110, so yeah, he was pretty good.
also; winning one, but appearing in two in, what, three years? you can make the case they weren’t, but multpile apps. in a short period of time seems pretty dynastic
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
"We’re not backing down, we’re not scared of them...them and their 180 million dollar payroll"
- Kevin Gregg
by danielreese05 on Jul 11, 2011 12:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
See its funny
I think Aikman was really good, but not great and he has all the numbers to say otherwise.
by Big Bad Bulluck on Jul 11, 2011 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions
he's gonna make it to the hall of fame... he was THE EPITOME of toughness in the NFL, maybe he won't be first ballad but he'll be in there eventually
Collins gave us the best chance to win ma ballz
Mcnair
He was one tuff SOB! and had hart, I hope he makes it in one day! Go titans 2011.
by toysandprojects on Jul 11, 2011 1:22 PM CDT reply actions
While I'd love to see it
I’m not counting on it. I don’t think any fans in our age group will ever forget how good he really was for a period of time regardless of hall of fame status.
by Big Bad Bulluck on Jul 11, 2011 6:43 PM CDT reply actions
I doubt he gets in
He had a couple good season and maybe one great season. To me, that’s not enough.
A flawed comparison based on different eras of how the game was played.
You can’t make a comparison of Namath, Bradshaw and McNair because the era’s they played in are so different.
Namath played in an era when even though the AFL threw the ball more anything would have been more wide open than the NFL’s 3 yards and a a cloud of dust(run the football) mentality in the 60s. Terry Bradshaw played for a coach( Chuck Noll as disciple of the run first/pass second mentality) even though the rules had been changed to open up the game 1978. Most of Bradshaw’s career was handing off the ball to Franco Harris( Hall of Famer) and his wingman Rocky Bleier. When he did throw the football he threw to two Hall of Famers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth. I’d compare Bradshaw with Aikman ( a good QB on a very talented team) than McNair. In this era where the rules are totally in favor of the offense McNair just doesn’t have the stats to warrant HOF consideration. No one questioned his heart and toughness unfortunately that is not a stat that gets HOF consideration. He was never mentioned stat wise in the same breath of Manning, Brady or Favre. Five super bowls win between them and the stats to back up their HOF credentials. I loved McNair as the Titans QB but I have heard this question asked of John McClain on the zone and he answers solidly that # 9 is not getting in.
Just because there's an absence of evidence doesn't mean there's an evidence of absence.

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