What Should the Titans Realistically Expect from Jake Locker in 2011?
by Jimmy on Jun 17, 2011 8:00 AM CDT
in Tennessee Titans Commentary
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Everyone with the Tennessee Titans is saying that the best quarterback in camp will start in week 1 against the Jaguars. I don't expect Jake Locker to be ready that point. I would give him a 50/50 chance of being ready if he were able to work with Chris Palmer this offseason, but because he isn't it is going to take some time to get him ready. I do expect him to be the full time starter somewhere around the 8th game of the season.
His first few games will probably be a little bit of an adventure, but I think by the end of the season we will see a lot of encouraging signs that make us feel good about Locker in 2012.
There have been three QBs (Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford) drafted in the top ten in the last two years. Here are their rookie year stat lines:
Stafford- 201 of 377 (53.3%) for 2,267 yards with 13 TDs and 20 INTs.
Sanchez- 196 of 364 (53.8%) for 2,444 yards with 12 TDs and 20 INTs.
Bradford- 354 of 590 (60%) for 3,512 yards with 18 TDs and 15 INTs.
I expect Locker's numbers his rookie year to be pretty close to those put up by Stafford/Sanchez.
Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus has already put together his QB projections for the 2011 fantasy football season, and he plugged in some pretty good numbers for Locker- 262 of 453 (58%) for 3,017 yards with 14 TDs and 18 INTs.
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That projection is probably the top end of it.
Though i think he might surprise us with the amount of TD passes he throws. Just have some sort of feeling about it.
Ain't no time for hesitatin'
All you got to do is groove
by BonzosMontreaux on Jun 17, 2011 8:50 AM CDT reply actions
Passer ratings:
There have been three QBs (Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford) drafted in the top ten in the last two years.
Here are their rookie year passer ratings:
- Stafford = 61.0
- Sanchez = 63.0
- Bradford = 76.5
and - Locker projection = 71.8
"It's a great day to be great, baby!"
"Here I am, brain the size of a planet,
and they ask me to pick up a piece of paper.
You call that job satisfaction?
'Cause, I don't."
THE BEARS STILL SUCK!
I expect him to win 3-4 games that you wouldn't win otherwise.
Stats are for fans. Wins are what matters. Close, tough wins, in particular.
When the chips are on the line, he makes the play.
Super Bowl
duh
Unofficial MCM QB Rating Hater
Epistemological Police
by rothbard on Jun 17, 2011 9:26 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I'd say Rookie of the Year, MVP, Superbowl MVP.
Maybe we can dual start him at safety too and he could get DROTY and DPOTY too.
Ain't no time for hesitatin'
All you got to do is groove
by BonzosMontreaux on Jun 17, 2011 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Comeback player of the year would be too much
MCM's First Best Player Available FanBoy!
by asbestos_man on Jun 18, 2011 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I really have no idea what to expect out of Locker.
Jimmy Clausen type numbers wouldn’t surprise me. Neither would Sam Bradford type numbers (adjusted for attempts).
I think
This may seem obvious, but I think Locker determines only 60% of how good Lockers does. And I think he will give everything he has to make sure he lives up to his part of the deal.
I think 10% would be how the coaches game plan and use him and the offense.
I think the other 30% would be his supporting cast – that includes does his star WR get suspended? Does Jared Cook make the leap? Does CJ return to form and does the new Staff run our other backs so Cj can rest? Does the Defense get off the field and keep games manageable? Does the Oline perform like we all know they can? Does Mariani continue to be “the man” and give Locker a shorter managable field to work with?
I agree with this
and disagree he will put up Clausen type numbers.
Locker is a fighter and will do what it takes to get better throughout the year.
Clausen is a cry baby who has a track record of being a Me-First mentality, who team mates at Notre Dame said was hard to work with. Hence the reason they drafted a QB with the first overall pick this year.
The Saint of MCM
by StPrattrick on Jun 17, 2011 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
I know; and as a Titans fan I am not implying that is what you are hoping for...
but Clausen is horrible. I think Locker would really have to try hard to fail as bad as Clausen did/does. I just don’t see it in him to be THAT bad.
The Saint of MCM
All good questions
IMO….the answer to all are yes. If it were me, I wouldn’t play him the 1st year unless I absolutely had to. I’d let him learn from a veteran….maybe put him in at the end of a lop-sided game to let him get his feet wet….other than that, he carries a clipboard.
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
If you had to be perfect to do what we do, then nobody would be doing it. On the other hand, if everyone could do what we do.....then everyone would be doing it.
by titansfan4ever on Jun 17, 2011 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I Kind of Agree
Except that if he is the best QB in camp, then start him. i can think of another QB (which i have a special hatred in my heart for – P. Manning) that was repeatedly raped in his rookie season, but has turned out ok. i know that Locker is not Manning, but he should have every opportunity to be on the field if he is the best we have. the best teacher is experience, so let him get some experience.
we do not need to bring in a veteran QB – we already have three. go get a d-lineman or something else to assist our defense (or even another RB to lighten CJ’s carries) and let’s get this thing started with Locker.
It is my hope that before i die i witness these two things at least once - The Titans winning a Super Bowl and Team USA winning the World Cup.
by Pulp Fiction on Jun 17, 2011 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
well
you have a point – but I see a difference
With Peyton being about as mobile as a flat tire, he had to get hit, and it taught him (why I hate him) how to fall as soon as a girl scout brushes up against your shoulder
I am scared that it will teach Jake Locker to rely too heavily on his mobility, which should be an asset, not a crutch
Bringing in a veteran QB was the FO's idea....not mine.
But I agree with them. I think the QB position is WAY too important not to have experience there. Jake will most likely still see some playing time….but they’ll probably bring him around slowly, rather than just throwing him to the wolves.
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
If you had to be perfect to do what we do, then nobody would be doing it. On the other hand, if everyone could do what we do.....then everyone would be doing it.
by titansfan4ever on Jun 17, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Then Let K. Collins
Mentor him for the veteran minimum while Locker goes out and gets his experience. i mean, he cannot be any worse than Sanchez was his first year. if he is worth the 8th pick in the draft and he wins the ‘preseason’ (ironic, considering that we may not have one) QB competition, then let him get after it.
and Manning does act like a woman when he feels the pass rush getting close to him. but, his doing that has prolonged his career somewhat. hopefully Palmer can assist Locker in learning the right time to use his athleticism, and the right time to THROW THE BALL AWAY. only time will tell…
It is my hope that before i die i witness these two things at least once - The Titans winning a Super Bowl and Team USA winning the World Cup.
by Pulp Fiction on Jun 17, 2011 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Throwing the ball away
He was actually really good with this in his last year and a half. Very rarely did he make decisions that resulted in a negative play.
I tend to agree.
I know there have been QBs who have more or less lit it up as rookie starters, but they are the exception, rather than the rule.
The list is a long one, of QBs who have been thrown into the fire as rookies and have fallen flat on their faces.
If I were running a team, my first-round rookie QB would be made to understand from the get-go that he is virtually being red-shirted, and that the expectations of him are for him to spend the season studying and working to grow into his eventual job.
I offer, as Exhibit A, my own team’s QB vs. the guy who got drafted with the number one overall pick instead of him.
"It's a great day to be great, baby!"
"Here I am, brain the size of a planet,
and they ask me to pick up a piece of paper.
You call that job satisfaction?
'Cause, I don't."
THE BEARS STILL SUCK!
I think he'll be very Tebow-like his first year, but elevated because he'll play more games.
Tebow: 41/82, 654 yds, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 6 rushing TDs.
My Locker guess, off of 6 games started: 75/130, 1000 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INTs, 4 rushing TDs.
"You know me to be a very smart man. Don't you think that if I were wrong, I'd know it?"
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jun 17, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
YPA is probably too high.
7.69 ypa would have been good for 6th in the league last year. Since 2000, only 4 rookie QB’s have had YPA’s over 7: Colt McCoy, Matt Ryan, Marc Bulger, and Big Ben.
We know why McCoy's was so high...he was a Longhorn!!!
That ought to get them fired up….:-)
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
If you had to be perfect to do what we do, then nobody would be doing it. On the other hand, if everyone could do what we do.....then everyone would be doing it.
by titansfan4ever on Jun 17, 2011 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Good point, knock down the yards to about 750 then.
"You know me to be a very smart man. Don't you think that if I were wrong, I'd know it?"
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jun 17, 2011 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I expect wins.
And he shall never lose to Blaine Sunshine Gabbert.
by criollo_pcg on Jun 17, 2011 10:34 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
We aren't that far away
I truly believe we have more talent than anyone in the division (we don’t have Peyton). Derrick Morgan didn’t play, Ayers should be a difference maker, and Checkers vs. Chess Cecil is gone.
In 08, what were Collins’ avg pass/game, I would guess 16-20. We have better personnel than 08, with a rookie qb. I truly believe Fisher and Cecil held this team back with overt loyalty to veterans and weak offensive/defensive playcalling.
If Locker can be relatively efficient and our coaches are an upgrade this team has serious 1-5 year potential. Peyton is Peyton, but we have a better roster than everyone else. I think the defensive playcalling was horrid last year and was a HUUUUUGGGGGE weakness.
by dailyminefield on Jun 17, 2011 10:52 AM CDT reply actions
Exactly
I am right there with you in that the coaching staff was way too loyal to players that weren’t contributing. what can Hawkins actually do at receiver? how about D. Williams – can they actually play? it is my hope that Palmer allows them the chance to succeed (or fail – then we can get rid of them) and grow with Locker to make our team better.
we shall see once this whole labor thing gets worked out.
It is my hope that before i die i witness these two things at least once - The Titans winning a Super Bowl and Team USA winning the World Cup.
by Pulp Fiction on Jun 17, 2011 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
not to keep the man love train going
but i agree with you too!
I see W. Williams as a great prospect. And Mariani could rock the slot. Hawkins has to show me consistency. But this team is actually, believe it or not, young which I see as a plus – and Without YOUNG – which I see as a HUGE plus
I am not fan stupid enough to think we are winning any titles in 2 years – but I see a core group, with some holes still, that could grow into a fantastic group
and that's the overarching hope :-)
man love train – nice.
It is my hope that before i die i witness these two things at least once - The Titans winning a Super Bowl and Team USA winning the World Cup.
by Pulp Fiction on Jun 17, 2011 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Playcalling will have to keep Locker’s Pass Attempts Low and when he does throw make sure it’s a deep ball Britt has a chance to come down with or a screen pass to CJ.
by dailyminefield on Jun 17, 2011 10:53 AM CDT reply actions
ill let him start!
What we got to lose?
by datboybevans on Jun 17, 2011 12:04 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Our first round QB's career within one year?
"You know me to be a very smart man. Don't you think that if I were wrong, I'd know it?"
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jun 17, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Yup, obviously starting Locker ruins his career. There is no alternative.
How about we NEVER start him!? He will be great!
Ain't no time for hesitatin'
All you got to do is groove
by BonzosMontreaux on Jun 17, 2011 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
You're taking my statement and twisting it to benefit your side.
He asked what we have to lose. There is a distinct possibility that Locker will never recover from a poor year. That’s not the only option, and obviously we both know that.
"You know me to be a very smart man. Don't you think that if I were wrong, I'd know it?"
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jun 17, 2011 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions
plausible? yeah. probable? nah.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 17, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Why isn't it probable?
The NFL cemetery is filled with the careers of NFL QBs who get off to bad starts and never recover.
"You know me to be a very smart man. Don't you think that if I were wrong, I'd know it?"
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jun 17, 2011 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
there are also plenty of success stories from players who started out poorly. Eli Manning comes to mind, I remember his first year being absolute shit. John Elway had a terrible first year as well. his second and third years were pretty average too. for god’s sake look at Terry Bradshaw, 38% of his passes were completed and he threw 24 picks compared to 6 TDs.
I also don’t feel like the organization will let their biggest investment in years just go down the drain. they’ve learned their lesson (I hope).
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 17, 2011 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
To be fair,
when Bradshaw was a rookie, the passing rules (intentional groumding, to name just one) and the pass defense rules were completely different animals from what they are today. :)
"It's a great day to be great, baby!"
"Here I am, brain the size of a planet,
and they ask me to pick up a piece of paper.
You call that job satisfaction?
'Cause, I don't."
THE BEARS STILL SUCK!
If he cant handle...
A bad year then he’s not a franchise qb.
by datboybevans on Jun 17, 2011 1:57 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
if a first round QB can´t handle the pressure of a bad first season..
than he does not have that great character everyone raves about him.
let the guy play. If he sucks, he hopefully will learn from it and become a better player.
It's not that, criollo....
it’s just that the NFL is soooooooo different than college….it really takes a lot of adjusting to. It’s no reflection on Locker at all. I’m very sure he’ll turn out to be the QB we thought he was when we drafted him.
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
If you had to be perfect to do what we do, then nobody would be doing it. On the other hand, if everyone could do what we do.....then everyone would be doing it.
by titansfan4ever on Jun 17, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Locker is a developmental guy, and in my mind
this has nothing to do with not being able to handle the pressure. It has do with him perfecting his footwork and mechanics, along with familiarizing himself with the playbook before throwing him in.
"You know me to be a very smart man. Don't you think that if I were wrong, I'd know it?"
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jun 17, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
What do we have to lose?
Locker starts day one. The speed of the NFL game, and, more importantly, the mental game is light years ahead of college. Things start off terribly with multiple 3+ INT games within the first 8 weeks of the season. It doesn’t help that he has no go to guy in the receiving corps since Kenny Britt is suspended for the first few games.
As a result of poor quarterback play, RB play suffers as well. Teams load 8-9 guys in the box. Offense consistently stalls, leaving the defense gassed and giving up points. We win only one game in the first 8 weeks.
Things pick up a bit at the end of the season, but the damage is done. The Titans finish the season with only 3 wins; bottom five in both offense and defense.
Despite the fact that it’s a lock out year and a new coaching staff, this is the worst record for the Titans history (in TN). Heads must roll. Someone has to take the fall, and that man is Chris Palmer. Thus begins the carousel of OC’s. Tennessee hires 3 offensive coordinators over the first 5 years of Jake Locker’s career. Constantly playing catchup with new playbooks, things are a struggle for Locker. He never fully “gets it”, and is deemed a bust. As a result of mediocre QB play, the Titans finish 4th place in the AFC South every year for the next 5 years.
/doomsday scenario
Apart from the rotation of coaches, the first three paragraphs seem quite plausible.
"You know me to be a very smart man. Don't you think that if I were wrong, I'd know it?"
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jun 17, 2011 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
coach rotation
Is the most plausible part!
Look at this franchises coaching history. Fisher was the exception and he got that because Adams wanted a cheap coach and then the move from houston to Tennessee. Then came the success. Then came 04 and his job was threatened no less than 4 times.
I think what superhorn says is spot on! Best way fir this to work out is for locker to sit and the staff to have success early.
I think munchak is only filling the position temporary anyways. Untill a Gruden or Cowher decide to coach again. Then Adams goes out and gets one of them.
by white02slpss on Jun 18, 2011 2:22 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
i don't think that Gruden or Cowher would come here
"We're fated to pretend."
by BythePowerofMunchak! on Jun 18, 2011 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions
its football period!
The best of the best. I think its better if he learns from in game experience.
by datboybevans on Jun 17, 2011 8:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
3 games in the second half of the season
I just can’t see him being the opening game starter. Too much to learn in too short an amount of time.
I live in the OC.
The one in OH.
Just thought I'd put this out there, since there's a common narrative that Locker's career could be different due to a "superior O-line".
This article from PFF is old (April), but here’s what they had to say:
Offensive Line
The way this entire unit played in 2010 would present a case for replacing all of them. They were beyond terrible and made life ridiculously hard for Chris Johnson. Many haven’t picked up on the sub standard past two years for Michael Roos (32nd ranked tackle in 2009, 37th in 2010), and most didn’t notice David Stewart’s play drop off a cliff in 2010 (where he ranked 42nd after finishing seventh a year earlier.) But everyone noticed how poor men in the interior were.
When the Titans said goodbye to Kevin Mawae we really didn’t feel they’d be losing much more than an experienced head. His performance on the field had dropped so far that you felt any guy coming in could do a better job. Wrong.
The Titans managed to take the loss of a spent force in Mawae, and turn that into getting worse at two positions. Not only did the move of Eugene Amano to center not work (he finished dead last in our center rankings), but it meant Leroy Harris moved into the starting lineup at left guard. Harris finished 79th (out of 82) in our guard rankings, with his run blocking being particularly poor. Throw in Jake Scott (finishing 76th in those same guard rankings) having a surprisingly poor year, and you have quite comfortably the worst interior offensive line in the NFL.
In your opinion, should we be concerned that Munchak is NOT concerned about the offensive line?
On one hand, the guy’s a tremendous line coach and has a stellar resumé. But their play last year was downright putrid. I really want to trust him on this one, but the visuals from last year just nag at you.
"You know me to be a very smart man. Don't you think that if I were wrong, I'd know it?"
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jun 17, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
if you're trying to dampen my expectations for the season
then it’s successfully working. the unfortunate/saddening part is that it makes me want to check the blog a lot less often.
So basically we have 3-4 good, complete players left on the roster and then our draft picks.
: (
"We're fated to pretend."
by BythePowerofMunchak! on Jun 17, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m always skeptical when offensive line play is quantified. I don’t really have a reason for it, it just seems fishy. do you think there were 30 offensive tackles better than Michael Roos in 2009? like, really? he’s a premier player in the league, no way in hell he gets there by being middle-of-the-pack at best.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 17, 2011 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
No, I don't.
The unit as a whole likely lowered this “rating”.
Then again, I know what my eyeballs told me last year; our offensive line play was putrid. I just think that our offensive line play has been so good, for so long, that it’s accepted as fact that it will be good next year. Statements just get made in passing that Locker’s rookie year will be different than most because he has the benefit of an excellent offensive line, and I’m just not sold that is a statement based in reality. Also, both of our quarterbacks have been excellent at getting the ball out on time the past two years…traits that can cover up for blemishes on the O-line. With a rookie QB, they won’t have that luxury as often. Locker in particular seems to have a nagging tendency to hold on too the ball to long at times.
I know none of this is fun to hear. I’m just trying to manage my own expectations as well as pass along a dose of reality to others. The second half of last year was God awful. I’m not sure it’s reasonable to expect an improvement from that considering:
1) The typical growing pains associated with a new coaching staff will be magnified because of the lockout
2) We will likely (much to my dismay) start the season with Locker under center
I get that the line was terribad last year, but individual player rankings always get me thinking about how it’s A.) even possible to rate an offensive lineman’s individual performance if you’re not really sure what he was supposed to do on the play anyways (like pull stop, cut block, whatever it was) and B.) how it is that one of the three best tackles in the league gets rated 31st. it’s probably unit performance, but I remember the line being pretty solid in 09, much more so than it was this year at least. whether that’s a testament to how good they were then or how bad they are now is up for discussion.
also; I’m fully comfortable with the fact that we are going to probably be one of the bottom 5 or 7 teams in the league, but a lot rides on how well or how poorly Palmer can handle and tweak his new QB. that nagging tendency to hold onto the ball might be a quick fix, or it could be the thing that sinks an otherwise promising career.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 17, 2011 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Hopefully nothing this year!!!!!!
He is the franchise QB he needs a good year of bench time before playing they need to make him 3rd string.This season will be a bust and you can’t put him in as a starter when he doesn’t even have a full off season to get ready. Most rookie QBs have bad or if their luckyy so/so first seasons our coaches are new,coordinators are new and most of all the QB is a rookie sit him a year and save his career let him grow into a great QB he has the potential.
look at the Bucs!
They had young players and put them on the field fast and they were right there for a playoff birth! If the players feel ready to hit the field then put them in!
by datboybevans on Jun 18, 2011 9:49 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Josh Freeman...
Has some bad games where he had three to four turn overs…but he also had some excellent games! It has taught him to have a short memory! Nobody ever thought bucks would be a contender but now they are. We are looking very similar to the bucks now so we just gotta run with what we have! We have s better roster than the bucs!
Yea we play them this year also!
by datboybevans on Jun 18, 2011 9:53 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
If we have a better roster than them, why did we go 6-10 and them 10-6 ...
I think as far as future potential yeah you’re correct but the Buccs are much closer to contention than we are right now
WOW
THE NFL
the Bucs are stacked, no way we have the better roster.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 19, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions
and you call yourself....
A fan
by datboybevans on Jun 19, 2011 4:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
their team was one game from the playoffs, ours is two years minimum from sniffing the post season. it sucks, but it’s true. they’re loaded at skill positions. I don’t know about the specifics on the o-line, but it seems like a solid enough unit. the D was middle of the road, so was the offense, but their future is extremely bright w/ Freeman, Blount, Williams, Benn, etc.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 19, 2011 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
not to mention that downright ridiculous D-line.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 19, 2011 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
thats why i say...
Give us a chance to see how our new coaching staff turns out. A lot of our loses where very close games.
by datboybevans on Jun 19, 2011 11:35 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
plus
it’s not like Freeman was even a rookie this year.. he started 9 games in 09 as a rookie and the Bucs went 3-13
MAVS 2010-11 NBA CHAMPS!!!!!!
bucs have a great coach....
Now we have new coaches we should be fine now.
by datboybevans on Jun 19, 2011 4:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
as a saints fan:
i have to say im much more worried about Freeman than Ryan. Ryan is consistently a solid QB who can make some plays, but Freeman is the definition of a play making QB.
if Locker is 80% as good as Freeman is going to be, then he’ll be better than Matty Ice.
I know I speak for all of us when I say that Freeman reminds us of a young McNair. as painful as that is, it’s 100% true. I have a feeling that he’ll be remembered as an all-time great.
Damn it feels good to be a contributor, Music City Miracles.
@DPR9
by danielreese05 on Jun 19, 2011 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions
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