FanPost

Lockertime: Thinking about completion percentage

I've been AWOL for the last few months, focused on work and other intiiatives.

But I want to jump back into the fray with a comment and a question.

I'm amazed by the optimism around Jake Locker. Sure, he is a great leader and smart, dedicated individual. But we also said that about Rusty Smith (though hardly anyone chose to stay on the Rusty bandwagon after his one and only start).

Jake Locker completed 55.4% of his passes in college. I think if you look at most SB-winning QBs of the last 10 years, you see players with 65% or better completion percentages. I think one reason Donovan McNabb never won a Super Bowl was because he could never break away from his carreer average completion of 58.9% (he completed only 61.5% in his best year). Unlike Baltimore and Pittsburgh, Philly never had the dominating defense to account for this lack of consistency.

I have a hunch most of us would be thrilled if Locker can be as accurate as McNabb by his second or third year. Unfortunately, that won't likely be enough.

Now for my question (actually a solicitation) -

I'll offer $1M MCM Bucks (ok, raise it to Eleventy Billion) to the first person who compiles data of the top  ~25 NFL QBs of the last decade and looks at their college completion rates. How many NFL stars were able to improve dramatically from college, in terms of accuracy. That would be a good analysis to kick off the Locker Era.

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