2011 NFL Draft: Late Round Value at Quarterback?

by Jimmy on Mar 7, 2011 6:04 PM CST in NFL Draft

Chad Reuter of NFLDraftScout.com and CBSSports.com has a very interesting article about how quarterbacks have done in the NFL based on where they were selected in the draft. Recent history shows us that finding a franchise quarterback outside of the top two quarterbacks in the draft is highly unlikely:

There is a fair drop-off after the top two quarterbacks, however, with the third-selected player averaging just 2.2 years starting and the group gaining 13 Pro Bowl appearances. Brett Favre is the major contributor to this group, as the numbers drop to 1.3 and two, respectively, without his long-time NFL run. Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, and Josh Freeman are trying to boost those figures, but Bady Quinn and Matt Leinart probably won't help their cause.

Go read the whole article because the stats on the first two quarterbacks taken are pretty astounding.

There are obvious going to be years where even the first two guys don't end up being good. The 2006 draft could end up being one of those drafts with Vince Young trying to pick his career up off the scrap heap, and Matt Leinart being even worse.

I believe this is going to be one of those years where the best quarterbacks end up being the ones taken outside of the first two, but the odds of past drafts are against that theory.

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Money shot:

Many fans and media members believe that “bargains” will be found in the late first or second round (Washington’s Jake Locker, FLorida State’s Christian Ponder, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett) or later in the draft (Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick, TCU’s Andy Dalton, or Alabama’s Greg McElroy).

History tells us, however, that it’s unlikely you’ll find an elite starter, or even a reliable one, once you’ve passed the top two quarterbacks in any draft.

I love Dalton and Ponder in the second, but I’m a little concerned that so few second round QBs have developed into good, reliable starters. Its a big gamble taking a QB in the first round (approximately a 50% bust rate), but the success rate for second round QBs is even less.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 7, 2011 6:15 PM CST reply actions

Super Bowl QB's and Draft Round

Super Bowl Year/Quarterback/Draft Round

2011 – Rodgers (1)
2010 – Brees (2) – 32nd overall pick
2009 – Big Ben (1)
2008 – E. Manning (1)
2007 – P. Manning (1)
2006 – Big Ben (1)
2005 – Brady (6)
2004 – Brady (6)
2003 – Johnson (9)
2002 – Brady (6)
2001 – Dilfer (1)
2000 – Warner (Undrafted)
1999 – Elway (1)
1998 – Elway (1)
1997 – Favre (2) – 33rd overall pick
1996 – Aikman (1)
1995 – Young (1)
1994 – Aikman (1)
1993 – Aikman (1)
1992 – Rypien (6)
1991 – Simms/Hostetler (1/3)*
1990 – Montana (3)
1989 – Montana (3)
1988 – Williams (1)
1987 – Simms (1)
1986 – McMahon (1)
1985 – Montana (3)
1984 – Plunkett (1)
1983 – Theisman (4)
1982 -Montana (3)
1981 – Plunkett (1)
1980 – Bradshaw (1)
1979 – Bradshaw (1)

More discussion about that here:
http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2011/3/2/2025060/drafting-a-qb-in-the-first-round-the-only-chance-to-win-a-super-bowl

by tdtommyd on Mar 7, 2011 6:24 PM CST reply actions

There is no brilliant idea here

Of course the best QBs are far and away most likely to be found in the high rounds. Better players tend to be picked before worse players. Being picked in the 1st does not cause a QB to be good. It’s the other way around. The better a QB is, the better the chance they will be selected in the 1st round.

Unofficial MCM QB Rating Hater
Epistemological Police

by rothbard on Mar 7, 2011 6:51 PM CST reply actions

Great Post

Fascinating, thank you to the poster.
If the Titans really plan to select a young QB, and find an old one, I think obviously the young one should be selected depending on who the old one is.
Frankly, I think the idea of trading down would be great, and if Peterson is there, I think it is reasonable, we are close to being able to suring up our front 7 on both sides of the ball, and that needs to be done, before upgrading the secondary. Obviously someone to fill Hopes shoes would be nice.
I am rooting for a 2nd round QB, and I do not care who. I think if enough are there, we should wait and grab one at 3.
Thoughts?

by titanfannyc on Mar 7, 2011 7:11 PM CST reply actions

Well if we wait to the third to take a QB

Then we take one in the 1st round next year if our third rounder isn’t our franchise QB

Fan of: New Jersey Devils, Tennessee Titans, New Jersey Nets, New York Mets, and the U

by NJD28 on Mar 7, 2011 9:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I think the Titans selecting a QB in the early rounds this year

Should not preclude them selecting one early next year either. I would prefer to select Ponder or Dalton in the late 1st (if they can make a trade) or early 2nd round. If those guys look good, then we’ll go with them…if they don’t show much, then select another QB in the 1st/2nd round next year.

QB is just too important of a position…it’s not a bad thing to select QBs high in consecutive years.

by shawneriksmith on Mar 7, 2011 10:32 PM CST reply actions

Agreed

If the Titans grab Andy Dalton in the 3rd (which would be nice), and he plays well this year, I would not pass up Andrew Luck next year. I would rather have 2 great QB’s with an average team than 2 average QB’s with a great team.

by tdtommyd on Mar 8, 2011 8:20 AM CST up reply actions

This is interesting.

On one side of the debate, we have metrics relating to games started, completion percentage, etc, that say a guy like Dalton is best. On the other hand, history says that we need to take an early QB to get a franchise guy. Both seem to make a valid point.

I’m not sure where to lean, at this point. I think there will be a solid argument for and against almost any QB we take. Except for Ryan Mallet. There is no argument for him. :P

"Do the Titans have a miracle left in them in what has been a magical season to this point? If they do, they need it now. Christie kicks it high and short. Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25; he dishes it back to Wycheck; he throws it across the field to Dyson. 30, 40, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10, 5, endzone...touchdown, Titans! There are no flags on the field! It's a miracle! Tennessee has pulled a miracle! A miracle for the Titans!"

by TennesseeTyrants on Mar 8, 2011 10:58 AM CST reply actions

Help me out

Somone please give me a reason they like Ponder. From where I sit, the kid has a weak arm. From my coaching spot on my couch, I saw him play in the Senior Bowl. He was underwhelming. If not for good WR’s, he would have had a bad day. That Hankerson kid (WR) made 2 catches that should have been incomplete, if not picked off. 1 was a TD.

But I guess if we rated QB’s on theor senior bowl, most of them woulod go undrafted. I did not see Ponder play during the year. Enlighten me please. Right now, I like Kaeprenick, Dalton, Locker, Taylor. Mallet may be good, may be a head case and be a headache. Gabbert I don’t buy because he has proven nothing against weaker conpetition…and in an offense that would make my grandmother put up serious numbers as a QB, no less.

Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town

by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 8, 2011 11:29 AM CST reply actions