Tennessee Titans Daily Links: Bang, Zoom, A Facepalm Straight To The Moon Edition

by August West on Mar 31, 2011 10:36 AM CDT in Tennessee Titans Links

PK's Mailbag features a slew of positive comments about our boy Andy Dalton. King notes numerous comparisons to Drew Brees since both guys are a little under-sized, started and won a boat load of games on established college teams, have been successful relying on smarts and savvy over arm strength and look like a lock for the early second round headed into the draft. At this point I'd love to see us trade up from our second round pick (39th) into the Patriots' second pick in the first round (28th), and perhaps the compensatory 4th rounder we got frees up another pick to be traded in the deal.
Facepalm. Or, 'MCM writer sees paradoxical stupidity in Warren Moon's allegations of a racial bias against Cam Newton.' Especially in this draft, how in the hell are you going to say one QB has been singled out more than others for criticism? Every QB in this draft has been HAMMERED by scouts for various reasons, not a one of which have anything to do with race. Hell, last year Tim Tebow had more of a case for being unfairly/overly-scrutinized during the draft process than Cam Newton does this year. I respect Moon if he really feels that way, but it really sounds more like sour grapes than anything else. That being said, Cam didn't say these things and he shouldn't be criticized for Moon's opinions.
Gramsey's favorite coach talked with PFW about what Kenny Britt needs to do to reach the next level in his career. Luckily Britt is already one step closer since he's got a WR coach not named Fred Graves.

Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders has a piece on ESPN In$ider that features an updated system for predicting NFL success for college WRs called Playmaker 2.0. Simplified for the masses, the system relies heavily on 6 factors (receiving yards per game, receiving touchdowns, average yards per catch, the team's yards per pass, the team's passes per game and the conference the receiver played in), and there are a few surprises as a result: A.J. Green gets the top grade, but it would only be good enough for the second or third spot in an average WR class. The shocker is Julio Jones, graded out as the 13th best WR in this class. His abnormally low TD totals, which are a solid indicator of NFL potential according to their research, are what really sunk his score. Of course they do note in the end that the system said guys like James Hardy and Darius Watts should have been Pro Bowlers, while DeSean Jackson and Brandon Marshall had weak grades, so keep in mind Verhei's closing comment:
Jones' low Playmaker score doesn't prove that he can't be an NFL success, but it does mean teams should watch tape very carefully to find out why it was so low before they select him high in the draft.

Jake Locker got good reviews for his pro day workout yesterday, but I'm still not buying.

Key Titans brass are staying after to put Locker through a private workout at U-Dub. This workout is in addition to Locker's scheduled visit to Nashville in April. My understanding is that those facility visits can't include a workout, so I wouldn't take this as meaning they're more interested in Locker than any of the other top QBs.

Matt Bowen writes about how to scout a safety.
PFF examines the hidden value of one of my favorite unheralded-Madden players for the past decade: Jim Kleinsasser. The FB/TE is a mauler of a run blocker.
PFW scribe Nolan Nawrocki made waves with his oddly-personal hammering of Cam Newton a few days ago, and now KSK has an exclusive look at some more probing scouting reports from Nawrocki, including this brilliant passage from A.J. Green's list of weaknesses:
Once told friends his father was a king and that his family lived in a castle. Told this lie at age 8, which suggests a long history of not being truthful. Has Rebecca Black listed in the ARTISTS section of his iPod, which suggests he either likes Rebecca Black, or is so submissive to his girlfriend that he ceded control of the iPod’s library to her. The fact that he didn’t delete it off his iPod prior to our routine scouting seizure suggests frequent mental lapses.
Scout.com writer John Crist takes a look at the QB and DL prospects who are rising and falling.

Finally, there's a lockout solution we can all get behind: scab owners!

Email me at mcmaugustwest@gmail.com and be sure to follow me on Twitter @AugustWest_MCM

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Comments

Re:

At this point I’d love to see us trade up from our second round pick (39th) into the Patriots’ second pick in the first round (28th), and perhaps the compensatory 4th rounder we got frees up another pick to be traded in the deal.

Are you sure he’ll be there at 28? I worry about these teams after our pick at 8:

10. Washington
12. Minnesota
15. Miami
16. Jacksonville
17. New England*
22. Indianapolis*
23. Philadelphia*
25. Seattle
*Unlikely, but wouldn’t’ shock me.

I’m concerned that Dalton’s getting a Joe Flacco-like push leading up to the draft. Many predicted that Flacco would be drafted “”http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/insider/news/story?id=3212538" >as early as the second round" in the beginning draft process. Then, heading into the draft, there were rumblings of a first round grade, and, boom, he’s off the board at 18.

I know that all the mocks and reports are telling otherwise, but this kid is starting to get the buzz nationally that we’ve been talking around MCM for months. A selection by Miami or Jacksonville really wouldn’t surprise me.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 10:55 AM CDT reply actions

I'dbe shocked

but crazier things have happened. We really need FA and trades to start after this court date next week…

Music City Miracles blogger and High Secretary of Funk. Follow me @AugustWest_MCM.

by August West on Mar 31, 2011 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions

The three starred teams I think would all be interested in Dalton in the third round.

If you’re Indy, why take a first round pick on someone who’s not going to play for another 5 years. All those teams could be trading partners though if we wanted to move down.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 31, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions

Unlikely, for sure. I said as much.

As for 5 more years of Manning, that’s to age 40. I’d say odds are against him playing that long (finger crossed!). Remember, though, Green Bay took Rodgers when Brett was around the same age.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions

Moreover, Philly's done it before with Kolb, and NE always is picks their BPA.

Philly’s selection presumes they would unload Kolb, grab a few picks (including a 1st) for Kolb, and use that first rounder on Dalton. I’d say that one is the biggest stretch.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions

Peter King said Manning wants to break all of Favre's records- so he'll probably play till 40, by his estimate.

3rd or later I think any of those teams jump at Dalton but they’ve all got other holes to fill other than backup QB.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 31, 2011 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions

I expect he'll play til 40. I'm just not sure it will be with the Colts.

3rd or later I think any of those teams jump at Dalton but they’ve all got other holes to fill other than backup QB.

Couldn’t the same be said of Philly when they drafted Kolb? Or, Green Bay when they drafted Rodgers?

Again, my point isn’t that the possibility is likely. It’s that the possibility exists enough that it wouldn’t shock me.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions

Peyton will play until he's 50

and he’ll be the first player/commissioner.

/BBS’d

Music City Miracles blogger and High Secretary of Funk. Follow me @AugustWest_MCM.

by August West on Mar 31, 2011 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Banned.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions

No

Peyton will play until he’s 50 and he’ll be the first player/commissioner.

AND KEITH BULLUCK HAS NO CLASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111

/FOREALBBS’d

Official MCM Hater!

"Brian f'n Orakpo. That guy is like James Harrison minus the stupid."

by gramsey712 on Mar 31, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions

he's also going to buy the Titans

Patrick Peterson= Next Deion Sanders. Julio Jones sucks.

by trevor2013 on Mar 31, 2011 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions

McNabb and Favre were both on the downslopes of their career.

Manning is on the back end for sure, but he doesn’t take nearly the amount of hits the average QB does. And there is no way, with my knowledge of Jim Irsay and Bill Polian, that he doesn’t retire a Colt.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 31, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Donovan McNabb was 31 when they drafted Kolb, and had just posted his second highest QB rating of his career the season preceding the 2007 draft.

No sense in arguing about Manning… I doubt either of us really care. I’m just saying historically that QBs who retire after their prime generally don’t finish with one team.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions

McNabb did show some injury concerns, though....

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions

I would point out

That GB picked Rodgers after he slid down from a possible #1 overall pick to #24…that was just too great of a value.

And, Kolb was selected in the 2nd round.

So, I don’t see either of those starred teams taking a QB in the 1st round…I would be more concerned about those other 5 teams either taking a QB at their current draft spot or trading back into the 1st round to pick one of these QBs.

It’s going to be an interesting draft!

by shawneriksmith on Mar 31, 2011 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions

While Kolb was at top of the 2nd, he was the Eagles first pick that year.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, Manning for all intents and purposes IS the Colts.

I doubt they’d be the team they are today if not for him, nor would they have the following (mainly UT bandwagoners…apologies to UT fans here, you guys follow the school and support the Titans, I know) they do. I think Irsay and Polian are both smart enough to realize that without Manning, guys like Tamme, Collie and Garcon are not NFL starters.

Good evening. I'm Ron Burgundy, and here's what's happening in your world tonight.

by ronburgundy7427 on Mar 31, 2011 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions

I think you confuse my opinion of Manning.

He’s excellent. I don’t dispute that, but he’s not immune to aging. The wheels fall off for all the great, and those that play past their prime generally do it with another team. Think Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, Brett Favre, Warren Moon, and Joe Namath. I think once you get past 37 (or battle injuries), it’s extremely unlikely that even a HOF QB will remain the starter of his original team.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Fair point.

I’ll counter with Elway, but he did have Terrell Davis helping him out. I could see him losing arm strength for sure, but as far as physically falling apart like some of those guys, he’s had such a quick release and great at getting rid of it that he’s been able to avoid a ton of hits (not to mention he’s a pocket guy so doesn’t take the hits a Roethlisberger does). I do agree, though, age will affect him to an extent. What that will be, I have no idea.

Good evening. I'm Ron Burgundy, and here's what's happening in your world tonight.

by ronburgundy7427 on Mar 31, 2011 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Elway was 38 when he retired, and he's generally an exception.

More to the point, the “5 years” we’re talking about above regarding Manning would contemplate him playing til he was 40. I can’t think of any examples of a QB playing til they are 40 with the same team.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Actually, I went ahead and looked myself.

For QB’s that have played past the age of 40, only one has played with just one NFL team in the history of the league. Charlie Conerly, age 40.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Interesting, well maybe those crazy people will get their wish five years later and Manning will be a Titan.

Ha.

Good evening. I'm Ron Burgundy, and here's what's happening in your world tonight.

by ronburgundy7427 on Mar 31, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions

i thought compensatory picks could not be traded...

Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town

by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 31, 2011 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Correct, but by having an "extra 4th" we have a little more leeway to move our actual 4th rounder.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 31, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions

word

I’m all for trading in and out of picks this year. I bet we could grab a DL late in the 1st and he would be as good out of the gate as a top 10. The only issue is if/when there is a run on QB’s.

Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town

by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 31, 2011 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Grading WRs...

The number one attribute a WR requires in the NFL is the ability to create seperation. This is done with a variety of measurables (speed, height, strength, precision) and hard to measure things (guile, unpredictability, chemistry with the QB, scheme).

Most WRs in the college game that produce huge numbers get away with superior measurables, usually speed and height. If you can always run away from the coverage, you’re going to be open a lot. Obviously in the NFL, this stops being the case, because of superior coverage players and scheme, such that the best receivers tend to be the ones that work at the non-measurables the most. This is why drafting WRs is often a terrible crap-shoot, since you’re often relying more on your ability to determine if someone is going to sit on their millions or if they are going work hard.

There are obviously exceptions. Randy Moss when he was good comes to mind. But it’s worth noting that Chris Carter always spoke well of Moss’ work ethic during his first stint with the Vikings. It’s also worth saying that Randy Moss is about as perfect a physical specimen to play WR as there ever has been, so he could get away simply on superior measurables, because he has them.

I’m otherwise a fan of pretty much anything on FO, so there is good discussion here. It’s also worth noting that the most important stat that they point out is Conference Strength, which is going to be the hardest stat when it comes to statistical signifigance in a given year. Teams and conferences just don’t play each other enough to really create a solid basis for ranking conferences (nevermind teams), and so you see a lot of receivers that would probably get inferior Playmaker numbers (Brandon Marshall they point out in this regard) partially because of their conference. Still, it’s likely a great exercise when it comes to grading potential wide receivers within the power conferences.

by dls on Mar 31, 2011 11:08 AM CDT reply actions

TDs rule

One thing Vince mentioned both in the original Playmaker Score discussion and the revised Playmaker Score discussion (in the FO mailing list discussions, and I believe in the articles as well) is that college TDs is the best single predictor of success.

I’m not sure how granular Vince has gotten in his look at TDs, but intuitively that makes a lot of sense to me-I’m assuming most college TD grabs come as a result of good red zone work, and the red zone is the place where the subtler arts of receiver play come out best-good use of leverage, technique, reading coverage, finding holes, and whatnot, as opposed to just running away from guys or coverage busts.

Julio’s low ranking got the Alabama partisans all up and cranky, especially in the comments on E$PN. If you look at it, though, Georgia quarterbacks threw 19 TDs in the games Green played, and A.J. caught 9 of them. Julio’s numbers were like 24/6 this year. That’s a big, big difference in percentage terms. If I’m thinking of drafting him, I’d want to see all of Alabama’s red zone passing plays and figure out why he wasn’t more productive.

by NewsToTom on Mar 31, 2011 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions

you forgot agility and elusivness

the ability to b quick not fast..eerrr ugh well the same goes for a HB

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by Ice0ne (CAJ) on Mar 31, 2011 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions

As a little exercise here, why don't we try to match the QBs to the team?

Carolina- Gabbert
Buffalo- Newton
Seattle- Locker
2nd Round: Cincinnati- Ponder

That leaves us Mallett and Dalton. Seattle or Cincy picks Mallett that would be even better.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 31, 2011 12:12 PM CDT reply actions

Re:

Buffalo – Gabbert
Cincinnati – Newton
Arizona – Mallett
San Francisco – Dalton
Seattle – Locker
Tennessee (2nd) – Ponder

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions

4 QBs in the top 7 of the draft?! That seems pretty extreme.

I’d love it if the draft played out this way though. We’d be guaranteed one of Von Miller, AJ Green, Nick Fairley or Patrick Peterson.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 31, 2011 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions

I could be (read: probably am) way off.

The QB position is in such flux this year, though. More than any year I can recently remember. It’s not that I view this year as a year with more QB talent, just more QB need. And, I think the gap between the 1st/2nd tier (guys listed) and the 3rd tier is dramatic. As a result, I think a big run on QB’s is likely.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions

And, FWIW, 5 QB's have gone in the top 12 picks: 1999 Draft.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions

That was a bad year in retrospect, outside of McNabb.

Good evening. I'm Ron Burgundy, and here's what's happening in your world tonight.

by ronburgundy7427 on Mar 31, 2011 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions

Yup.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions

But I could see this year turning out very similar to that one.

I wasn’t a diehard football fan then (a young lad actually), so I don’t really know how highly regarded those guys were, but from my retrospective view, it doesn’t seem like anyone was highly regarded like Manning was or Luck is and it ended up being a bunch of teams that needed QBs taking them out of desperation.

Good evening. I'm Ron Burgundy, and here's what's happening in your world tonight.

by ronburgundy7427 on Mar 31, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions

no Kaepernick?

Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town

by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 31, 2011 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Not til later.

by SuperHorn on Mar 31, 2011 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Ya he'd warrant consideration at our pick, but not ahead of the guys I listed.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 31, 2011 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions

oops...see below

Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town

by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 31, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions

oh gotcha....

I could see him going 3rd or 4th of the QB’s. My $.02 anyway.

Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town

by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 31, 2011 12:22 PM CDT reply actions

If there's a run on QBs watch out, Kaepernick's stock will rise.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 31, 2011 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd rather eat my shoe

Than trade up to get andy dalton in the 1st round, I may be wrong, but I’m not sold on the kid at all, and I think that second tier of qbs behind newton and gabbert is all roughly the same talent level anyway, and could all boom or bust, I’d rather wait til 40 and get whichever of ponder, locker, dalton, or even mallett fall there, and if none of em do, than we probably won’t be much worse off anyway, and other quality players will likely fall to us with the run on qbs

This team needs a little bit of Luck, heres to 2012

by z24lax on Mar 31, 2011 12:37 PM CDT reply actions