Just how bad (or good) is this year's QB class
With QB as the obvious top need for the Titans, the evaluation of this year's QB class is paramount. QB is the most important position on the team and the Titans don't have anybody other than Rusty Smith at QB, currently. So, just how bad (or good) is this year's QB draft class?
I decided to compare the college statistics of this year's QB class to QBs drafted in the 1st round over the past 5 years (since the Titans last drafted a QB in the 1st round). I only looked at the statistics for when the QBs were the primary starter for the majority of the season for their team and/or they threw more than 200 pass attempts in that season (so, the 2-3 games they played as freshmen didn't count into this, for example). And, I looked at the top 6 QB prospects this year: Gabbert, Newton, Mallett, Locker, Dalton, and Ponder.
The comparison is below...there is a disclaimer that certain offensive schemes may inflate some statistics for QBs and some of these QBs only had one year of college play. The columns in red are for this year's class.
- Note Cam Newton and Mark Sanchez only have one year factored into their statistics
Completion Percentage
COMP % (via shawneriksmith)
YPA (via shawneriksmith)
TD_to_INT Ratio (via shawneriksmith)
INT % (via shawneriksmith)
TD % (via shawneriksmith)
So, the main takeaways I have from this are:
- Cam Newton had an awesome year last year...but it was just one year
- The other QBs are pretty average in terms of completion percentage compared to previous drafts, except Jake Locker, who is by far the worst
- Newton and Mallet had good YPA, TD%, and TD-to-INT numbers with the rest of the QBs average or below average...Jake Locker was the worst again in this stat category
- Gabbert has the best INT% (6th best of 1st round QBs past 5 years) with Ponder/Locker at the high end.
So, based on these statistics, I would not consider Locker a 1st or even a 2nd round prospect. His statistics cannot be explained by lack of talent around him...they are just that much worse. Is he an athlete? Absolutely, but he's not a QB right now, especially at the NFL level.
The rest of the QBs are overall solid, compared to the previous 5 years. Based on the offense he was in, Gabbert should have a higher completion percentage and higher TD % but he is about average in all of the other categories.
There are several QBs who showed year-over-year improvement, so their last year of playing is much better than what is represented here. That list includes Ryan Mallett (2011), Andy Dalton (2011), Matthew Stafford (2009), Josh Freeman (2009), Joe Flacco (2008), JaMarcus Russell (2007), and Vince Young (2006).
Obviously, the interviews ("chalk talk" and off-field issues) and workouts (can the guy make all the throws?) will help separate these players even more, but based solely on college performance, I would have Ryan Mallett, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder as my top rated QBs in that order. However, they all have questions: Mallett's off-field concerns, Dalton's lack of competition playing at TCU, Newton's one-year wonder?, Gabbert's lack of production in Missouri's spread offense, and Ponder's injury concerns.
There is no clear-cut favorite, in my opinion...I can see any or all of these QBs selected in the 1st round. This will be an interesting draft come April.
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Assuming the off-field issues with Mallett are true in terms of drug use, etc.
This absolutely yes…Mallett would fall to a late 2nd / early 3rd round grade for me. But, I don’t know for a fact if they are true, but I would love to be a fly on the wall in those interview rooms.
I would also move Ponder up some if I could excuse some of his poor play this past year on injury concerns and assuming he checks out medically. I think he could be a “poor man’s” Sam Bradford…but I don’t know what extent his injury played a role last season, but he had a great year before last year.
If all these other issues were true (Mallett’s drug use and Ponder’s injury affected his play) and Ponder checked out medically (no concern with possible future injury), then I would probably rate the QBs Dalton, Ponder, Newton, Gabbert, and Mallett. Dalton is definitely the best overall prospect…but I would rate him as a mid-to-late 1st round pick.
I still wouldn’t touch Locker until the 3rd round…
by shawneriksmith on Mar 15, 2011 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I will add that
Newton really reminds me of VY, at least where they are in terms of development as a QB.
I thought the Titans were right in drafting VY to develop under Steve McNair. Then, they let go of McNair and the rest is history.
I don’t think the Titans are in a position to draft a developmental prospect now. We need a guy with a level head, good mechanics, and has shown to be a leader. Dalton fits all of those qualities and he has done well, even against good competition (see bowl games stats below).
And, despite Ponder’s injury, Florida State still had the 11th best passing offense in the nation last year per FO’s S&P ratings (see below):
FO’s S&P rankings for passing offense:
1. Auburn (Newton)
2. Stanford (Luck) *for comparison purpose only
4. Alabama (McElroy)
6. Arkansas (Mallett)
11. Florida State (Ponder)
17. TCU (Dalton)
18. Washington (Locker)
34. Missouri (Gabbert)
This is just another piece of data against Gabbert…if you can’t lead a top 20 passing offense in college, then how are you going to do that in the NFL? Even Locker’s team broke the top 20…
by shawneriksmith on Mar 15, 2011 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I say
The elite talent is as shallow as a spoiled girl with rich parents on her 16th birthday.
(in terms of elite talent that is)
Check out my Youtube Channel Icecru2.
yeah, i want some views...
Who's good looking enough to draw better guys.
No one likes us,
No one likes us,
We're the Raiders and we don't care...
"Darth Vader is a punk compared to Al Davis." - Hunter S Thompson
In Soviet Russia, Mozgov dunk on YOU.
My name is Al Harrington. I do not get buckets.
yeah
she’s a dumb blonde with the iq of a duck, but hey she’s got big boobs!
Check out my Youtube Channel Icecru2.
yeah, i want some views...
by Ice0ne (CAJ) on Mar 16, 2011 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
and yall dont
want mallet why?
EAPN? yea that was me
Cocaine use and a terrible attitude?
I foresee Ryan Leaf 2.0 if he can’t fix both of those things ASAP.
In Reinfeldt We Trust
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 15, 2011 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions
whiny baby
more so than VY is said to be here
Check out my Youtube Channel Icecru2.
yeah, i want some views...
by Ice0ne (CAJ) on Mar 15, 2011 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions
cocaine use is the bigg thing
if those rumors are false then get him. idc how much of an ass he is as long as he can Qb well enough. plus we have thorchack. so his attitude would b put in check
EAPN? yea that was me
I believe that was John Fox's mentality
When the drafted Clausen
Fan of: New Jersey Devils, Tennessee Titans, New Jersey Nets, New York Mets, and the U
by NJD28 on Mar 16, 2011 5:50 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
why
is Kaepernick, Stanzi (ugh) and Tyrod Taylor not included? I keep mentioing Tyrod Taylor….I think he led the nation in completion %….not sure, but have read he is as accurate as he is elusive.
I really like Kaepernick, and would love to see how he stacks up here.
Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town
by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 15, 2011 5:01 PM CDT reply actions
For the most part
I don’t see Stanzi or Tyrod Taylor mentioned as a top QB in this draft…I did think about pulling Kaepernick’s stats to compare but I ended up having to do real work this morning so I couldn’t get him added in.
I’ll try to add Taylor and Kaepernick in later, but I don’t expect it to change the overall gist of this post.
by shawneriksmith on Mar 15, 2011 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I went ahead and looked at Kaepernick's stats
He has a really good TD-to-INT ratio (better than the other QBs except Newton).
He has a decent YPA (in the Matthew Stafford / Andy Dalton range).
The completion percentage is a little low at 58% for his career, but his last year he was at 64%.
As I see it, there are 3 “pro-ready” QBs: Dalton, Ponder, and Mallett.
And, there are 3 “developmental” QBs: Newton, Gabbert, and Kaepernick.
If I’m the Titans, with the lack of any veteran QB at this moment, then I have to go with the more “pro-ready” QBs. If Mallett’s drug use is true, then he’s out. If Ponder can’t pass stringent medical testing in terms of shoulder and elbow strength, then he’s out. Dalton’s only knock is he played at TCU…but he played well against the top competition that TCU played and he did show improvement year-over-year.
by shawneriksmith on Mar 15, 2011 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
good dealio
thanks guys….cheers to a good draft!
Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town
by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 15, 2011 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions
sorry
Mallet = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMe0Rz1frdE
Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town
by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 15, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like Locker, i think they'll go with him in the second round if he's there
"Oh, you should never, never doubt what nobody is sure about." Gene Wilder - Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory
Interesting you talk about Dalton's lack of competition at TCU
I’m working on a scouting report on Dalton that picks apart every last stat I can find of his preformace at TCU
Fan of: New Jersey Devils, Tennessee Titans, New Jersey Nets, New York Mets, and the U
by NJD28 on Mar 16, 2011 5:54 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
NEVER UNERSTOOD
why players are knocked for “lack of competition” at a school. Marshall Faulk went to San Diego State., Jerry Rice went to Mississippi Valley State, CJ2k went ot East Carolina, and the list goes on.
Basically, Dalton lit up “lesser” competition with lessr receivers, lesser OL, and generally less talent around him. IMO the playing field is level. You go to, say, a top 10 school and do well. You were throwing to the best WR’s, handing off to the best RB’s, and being protected by the best OL. The lesser competition argument is foolish.
Bawz Hawgin' from H-town to 'Toga Town
by MarkusInSaratoga on Mar 16, 2011 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
I do agree with you for the most part
I never understood it…but I had to find something bad to say about Dalton!! :-)
I think it is a “concern”, but as you point out, Dalton not only played against “lesser” talent but he also played with “lesser” talent.
His primarily playing in a spread offense is probably more of a concern, but that’s nearly all college QBs nowadays.
Like I said previously, Dalton is probably the best “pro-ready” QB along with Ponder/Mallett. However, Ponder/Mallett have actual real concerns (injury and off-field).
by shawneriksmith on Mar 16, 2011 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
agree
but imo the advantage of playing better competition is getting used to the pressure and spotlight. of course there are several cases of sucess, but also several good players that were stars in their schools and then sucumbed in the pressure of the nfl.
Great post shawneriksmith!
Rec’d!
We definitely need a pro ready guy. This will be an interesting off season eventually (when the technicalities get sorted out).
by Los Blancos Chicca on Mar 16, 2011 9:46 AM CDT reply actions
Go for 2!
Why not draft cam first round (if he is there) and Dalton or ponder (if they are there) in 2nd. That way we are covered surely one or the other will pan out. Draft one more receiver in third to juice up our O some more. Then look for C or LG in fourth. After that it doesn’t really matter go D best player available. That way our O is set for a good while. If we get lucky both turn out to be great QB’s and we have a valuable trade option. Next year go D all the way in draft and let the winning happen
by Tntowboater on Mar 16, 2011 11:30 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
to give you a short answer from where I'm standing; it's bad.
really fucking bad.
Get 'em.
you are NOT a beautiful or unique snowflake.
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
by danielreese05 on Mar 16, 2011 10:32 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
You know shawn, if you want to win the "stat geek" award....
you’re going to have to beat out SuperHorn & Winnipeg….good luck with that one. But seriously, the more I read all this info on the QBs….the more I’m leaning towards Dalton.
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
Success is not given to those who know what to do......unless they do it.
Honestly
I can’t see why so many people are making a big deal of these quarterbacks. It seems to me that this quarterback draft class is middle-of-the-pack in terms of talent compared to past drafts. Frankly, I get the feeling like people are over-exaggerating the value for some of these guys just because there isn’t anyone who is a clear-cut #1 QB choice. Because teams do have quarterback needs, it would raise their value, but I can’t see all the hullabaloo about drafting what many are calling project quarterbacks in the first round when there has to be other talent available. I can not honestly see why a team has to take these quarterbacks in within the first ten picks when there is not one player who does not raise multiple red flags. For example, I use Cam Newton. Heisman trophy winner, Championship winner, yet he has issues with passing, relying too heavily on running, and there are red flags with his personality (see accusations of pay-to-play). People are talking about taking him within the first 10 picks and to me that seems insane. I know quarterbacks are the centerpiece of a team, but there’s reaching for a centerpiece and then there’s buying into the overhype of a middle-of-the-road quarterback class.
Proud member of the Pro-Bironas Camp!

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