Are defensive linemen "safer" choices?

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 13, 2011 6:12 PM CDT

That is the question I wanted to examine. There are a lot of good DEs and DTs that we may have a shot at when the 8th pick rolls around, but I think that we are all overlooking that they too have a bust factor. From all the discussion we've had on this topic, I feel that we have just assumed that the defensive lineman we choose will come in and be an outstanding contributor.

"Bowers and Morgan will be unstoppable!"
"Can you imagine Fairley and Morgan on the line together?"
"Our defensive line would be set for years!"

While all these comments may be true, they also may not pan out. There are several reasons why we should choose a DL at 8- but not because they are "safer." I went back and looked at every DT and DE drafted in the top 10 in the past ten drafts. I then classified each pick as a good pick or bad pick. Some were easy, some will be controversial. This is what I found:

2001
Jamal Reynolds: BAD PICK. This defensive end was a former 10th overall pick and notched 3 career total sacks.
Andre Carter: GOOD PICK. Carter was drafted by the 49ers and had several good seasons for the Niners and Redskins.
Richard Seymour: GOOD PICK. He was dominant for the Patriots and still has maintained a high level in Oakland.
Justin Smith: GOOD PICK. Solid contributor throughout his career.
Gerard Warren: BAD PICK. Certainly not what the Browns were hoping for when they picked him 4th overall.

2002
John Henderson: GOOD PICK. Definitely a good choice by the Jags.
Ryan Sims: BAD PICK. I compared his stats to several d-linemen drafted in 2002 and 2003. He doesn't stack up well.
Julius Peppers: GOOD PICK. Not much of a debate here.

2003
Kevin Williams: GOOD PICK. A beast to stop for the past decade.
Jonathan Sullivan: BAD PICK. 1.5 career sacks and was only in the league 4 years.
Dewayne Robertson: BAD PICK. Never could find his way with the Jets or Broncos.
Terrell Suggs was drafted in the top ten and Wikipedia listed him as a DE, but he's played OLB throughout his career.

2004: None.

2005: None.

2006:
Mario Williams: GOOD PICK. They call him Super Mario for a reason.

2007:
Amobi Okoye: BAD PICK. This will be a controversial choice. 10 sacks in four seasons, mediocre tackle numbers. He was the youngest player drafted into the NFL so perhaps he will hit his stride, but I'd expect more an impact from the 10th overall pick.
Jamaal Anderson: BAD PICK. 3.5 sacks in four years by this former 8th overall pick. Awful choice by Atlanta.
Gaines Adams: N/A. I don't think its fair to classify the late Adams as either a good or bad pick. For my stat totals, he will be left out.

2008:
Derrick Harvey: BAD PICK. The fact that he may not be on the Jags' roster this year is a telling sign.
Sedrick Ellis: GOOD PICK. His numbers are okay but not exactly stellar. I wavered a bit on him but I think he's made enough of an impact in New Orleans to classify him as a good pick.
Vernon Gholston: BAD PICK. One of the worst DE picks of all time?
Glenn Dorsey: BAD PICK. Another guy with minimal impact so far.
Chris Long: GOOD PICK. His sack numbers have increased for the past three years and his play this year was solid.

The following two draft classes are hard to judge since they do not have three seasons under their belt yet, so I will list my prediction, and separate the totals of players selected in 2001-2008 and the following years.

2009:
BJ Raji- Prediction: GOOD PICK. Monster impact on Green Bay's defense.
Tyson Jackson- Prediction: BAD PICK. Maybe he'll be a late bloomer but its not looking good right now.

2010:
Tyson Alualu- Prediction: BAD PICK. May become a contributor but I don't see him becoming anything great.
Gerald McCoy- Prediction: GOOD PICK. Jury's out on him as he lost most of his year due to injury, but he's sound technically and should have an opportunity to make an impact this year.
Ndamukong Suh- Prediction: GOOD PICK. Already a Pro Bowler and looks like a guy who could have an outstanding career.

With this data I did a few basic calculations. From 2001-2008, 9/19 picks turned out to be good choices. Including my 2009 and 2010 predictions, 12/24 of the choices are successful picks. From this data it seems that the bust factor on selecting a DE/DT is roughly 50%- the same as it is for other positions, like QB for example. One number that I did find quite shocking was the number of players who made the Pro Bowl. Now, with all the dropouts I expected the number to be through the roof but shockingly only 6/19 (31.5%) defensive linemen selected in the top 10 from 2001-2008 made the Pro Bowl.

So what does all this mean? Well, that selecting a defensive lineman at 8 this year is not "safer" than selecting a QB, or even WR (though I didn't go through and calculate a success rate for WR, I think the 50% success rate will apply to each position). Each pick seems equally likely to be a success or failure. The purpose of this post was simply to evaluate the question I posed in the title- the data does not support that one position is safer than the other. Just something to keep in mind as the draft approaches.

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Comments

The NFL Draft is a crapshoot

There is no telling who the busts are going to be or who the gems are when it comes to the draft. The safest way to get a solid player in the draft is to know how much a guy wants to be the best player at his position in the NFL, which is not something a scout can measure accurately.

Fan of: New Jersey Devils, Tennessee Titans, New Jersey Nets, New York Mets, and the U

by NJD28 on Mar 13, 2011 6:50 PM CDT reply actions

I agree with pretty much everything you said.

I just wanted to look back because I do think almost all of us, myself included, have somewhat penciled in “Morgan + another 1st rounder will lead to success” but the reality is that still only 50% of the DL chosen pan out.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 13, 2011 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Yea

In the case of Morgan I think he has the drive and the competitive spirit that should push him to be the best he can be. However when you look at the “busts”; once they got their money they were content with playing mediocre football for excessive amounts of dollars

Fan of: New Jersey Devils, Tennessee Titans, New Jersey Nets, New York Mets, and the U

by NJD28 on Mar 13, 2011 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions

But with the Players wanting a Rookie Wage Scale....

there wont be anymore fat contracts for rookies. They will all have to prove their worth through play and I think every fan would again that you earn your pay as a rookie.

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by Titans_Firefighter on Mar 13, 2011 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions

It is worth noting since you bring up "drive"

that Bowers and Fairley, two guys the Titans will very much be interested in if they fall, only have one year of good production to their name.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 13, 2011 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Indeed

I tend to follow the Bill Walsh method on one-year players. “Don’t take the one year player and look forward, take the one year player and look back.”

Fan of: New Jersey Devils, Tennessee Titans, New Jersey Nets, New York Mets, and the U

by NJD28 on Mar 13, 2011 9:59 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I love that line.

I honestly am perfectly alright with letting Bowers, Fairley and even Quinn past 8. All have one good year of tape and all are tremendous talents. I wouldn’t necessarily be against choosing them, but I really want a guy with more track record.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 13, 2011 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Very Nice fanpost

Just for reference

2001
Mike Vick: GOOD PICK.

2002
David Carr: BAD PICK.
Joey Harrington: BAD PICK

2003
Carson Palmer: GOOD PICK.
Byron Leftwhich: BAD PICK

2004
Eli Manning: GOOD PICK.
Philip Rivers: GOOD PICK.

2005
Alex Smith: BAD PICK

2006
Vince Young: BAD PICK
Matt Lienart: BAD PICK

2007
JaMarcus Russel: WORST PICK EVER

2008
Matt Ryan: GOOD PICK

2009
Matthew Stafford: Prediction: GOOD PICK
Mark Sanchez: Prediction: BAD PICK

2010
Sam Bradford: Prediction: GOOD PICK

That’s 7/15, or 46% Good picks in the Top 10
6/12 Pro Bowlers up to 2008

I am someone who thinks that D-linemen are safer than QBs, so these are very intriguing numbers

The Official Pretend Mock GM for the 2011 Music City Miracle Titans.

Go Titans!

by natidawg on Mar 13, 2011 9:50 PM CDT reply actions

I'd fight you on Sanchez because I think he'll turn out to be pretty good

But either way it is interesting that the success rate for QBs and DLs are about the same. Good research on your part there. I still like a lot of the d-linemen in this draft, I just don’t think we should play into the myth that one position is safer than the other.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 13, 2011 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Where is Aaron Rodgers?

I think Sanchez has worked out extremely well for the Jets. He does what he is asked of when it comes to the Jets ground and pound offense. He has led his team to 4th Quarter comebacks, the playoffs, and two straight AFC Championships. The only reason he is widely criticized is because he is playing in the New York-metro area.

Fan of: New Jersey Devils, Tennessee Titans, New Jersey Nets, New York Mets, and the U

by NJD28 on Mar 13, 2011 10:20 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I was going off top 10 picks only, like WTF did.

And maybe Sanchez is bad, that’s definitely debatable. That has a more to do with my personal dislike for him than anything else, and the fact that I do not think he will ever warrant his Top 5 pick status. Anyone drafted in the Top 5 needs to be judged on an elite-or-bust scale in my opinion.

I still think this QB class is going to turn out more like the 2003 class ( Palmer, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman) than the 2004 class (Eli Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman).

The Official Pretend Mock GM for the 2011 Music City Miracle Titans.

Go Titans!

by natidawg on Mar 13, 2011 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Mike Vick was not a good pick for the Falcons.

In looking at this list, there are probably only three quarterbacks I’d build a franchise around. Rivers, Ryan and Bradford. Using that logic, I’d argue that it’s only 3/15.

by SuperHorn on Mar 14, 2011 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions

That's debatable (the mike vick part)

I wasn’t sure how to grade Mike Vick. He gave the team some victories, and took them to the playoffs twice, including their best season since in 6 years in 2004. Then of course, the dog fighting blah-blah-blah, and there is the end of Vick in Atlanta

I kept my standards low for considering something a good pick. If franchise QB is what you are going for, then I’m gonna say what I’ve been saying: Don’t take a quarterback in this draft. You’re going to get a very skilled game manager at best.

The Official Pretend Mock GM for the 2011 Music City Miracle Titans.

Go Titans!

by natidawg on Mar 14, 2011 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions

I think Dalton can be a franchise QB in a WCO.

To your point about Vick, I would then think that Vince would also be considered a “Good Pick”. Same goes for Sanchez.

by SuperHorn on Mar 14, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Just in a WCO?

Because if that’s the case why would we target him? I don’t think we’re going to a WCO anytime soon.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 14, 2011 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions

That's difficult for me to answer without knowing more about Palmer's offense.

When I say WCO (as run by Bill Walsh), I also mean WCO variants. Few offenses are strictly WC principles (in fact I can’t think of any). Most also have some vertical concepts blended in as well as a healthy dose of 5 and 7 step drops. For example, people tend to call the offense in Green Bay the West Coast offense, when it no longer even resembles Bill Walsh’s system.

Really, every offense is more of a blend at this point. Spread concepts rely in West Coast fundamentals. Some “West Coast” offenses in the shotgun a lot more, making it “spread like”, and they also don’t rely nearly as much on the running back to catch the ball…certainly not as much as Roger Craig did. Even “Coryell/vertical” offenses, like they run in San Diego, still rely on a healthy dose of timing routes.

The real point here, though, is that there’s no sense in drafting Dalton (or your boy Gabbert) if the intent is for him to stretch the field vertically. He’s got the arm to get it deep, but it’s not exactly a cannon. He might be successful in that role, but I believe his strength is short/mid accuracy and knowing where to go with the ball.

by SuperHorn on Mar 14, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Which is why, unfortunately, the Titans seem most interested in

Locker, Kaepernick and other strong armed guys.

In Reinfeldt We Trust

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Mar 14, 2011 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Maybe. They did send a scout to TCU, and, allegedly, will bring in Dalton for a private workout.

Who knows really what’s real and what’s for show. Still, it’s a good sign that they are showing some interest.

by SuperHorn on Mar 14, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Sanchez should probably be considered a good pick.

I think he is less talented the Vince, but at least he has his head on straight.

But Vince didn’t have the success Vick had. He never got the Titan’s a playoff win, and his best season (on record alone) was one 10-6 season, and a one and done in the playoffs. He didn’t have as much success with Tennessee as Vick had with Atlanta to warrant a “Good Pick” status.

The Official Pretend Mock GM for the 2011 Music City Miracle Titans.

Go Titans!

by natidawg on Mar 14, 2011 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Thank you dawg & Winnipeg for these list.

This confirms what I’ve said for years, the draft is a big gamble, so you’ve got about a 50/50 chance to hit the jackpot….it’s certainly better than the lottery…:-)

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Success is not given to those who know what to do......unless they do it.

by titansfan4ever on Mar 14, 2011 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Its easier to evaluate Dlinemen

so they shoud be simpler picks

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by Ice0ne (CAJ) on Mar 13, 2011 11:31 PM CDT reply actions

DLinemen are

supposed to be tough, not timid baby deer

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by Ice0ne (CAJ) on Mar 13, 2011 11:43 PM CDT reply actions

I have to disagree on Amobi Okoye.

He’s on 23 which means last year should have been his rookie season if he wasn’t so smart.
Not to say I totally disagree and say that it was a great choice, only that the verdict is still out and he has plenty more to play before the it’s decided as to whether or not it was a good pick.

by Oilersborn on Mar 14, 2011 7:00 AM CDT reply actions

But he's got three years on these rookies coming in and I would say Suh is better than him already.

Youth should not necessarily be an excuse at this point, look at all those NBA guys who come out of high school and in a couple years are dominant. And like I said, I would argue Suh is better than Okoye. He’s a bust so far.

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by ronburgundy7427 on Mar 14, 2011 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions

Re: Derrick Harvey, bad pick.

Bad pick for Sparkle Kitties = Great for Titans!

…he really does suck though.

Good evening. I'm Ron Burgundy, and here's what's happening in your world tonight.

by ronburgundy7427 on Mar 14, 2011 8:54 AM CDT reply actions

Scouting isn't as good as the NFL would like it to be

For example:

1995 NFL Draft

Round 1:

1. Cincinnati – Ki-Jana Carter, RB Penn State- Bust.
17. N.Y. Giants – Tyrone Wheatley, RB Michigan- Bust.
18. Oakland – Napoleon Kaufman, RB Washington- Bust.
19. Jacksonville – James Stewart, RB Tennessee – OK player.

…

Round 6:

196. Denver – Terrell Davis, RB Georgia- Would be a Hall of Famer but nagging injuries forced him to retire prematurally.

Scouting has come a long way since then but it just goes to show you that you never know what type of player you are going to get. You also can’t measure how badly someone wants to succeed.

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by GoTitansGo on Mar 14, 2011 1:45 PM CDT reply actions