Tennessee Titans Morning Links: A Rich Man's Billy Volek Edition
by August West on May 6, 2010 10:22 AM CDT
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A few members of the Titans were able to re-enter Baptists Sports Park yesterday for the first time since that area flooded. Luckily, BSP and the practice facilities narrowly escaped flood damage. The area, however, is still on lockdown and probably will be for at least the rest of the week.
David Boclair turns-in a solid read about rookie QB Rusty Smith, who is the rare breed of college QBs raised and weened on a pro-style system though high school and college. Smith is going to be Mike Heimerdinger's pet project, almost like a Billy Volek who shouldn't take as long to reap some reward because he's got a better skill-set.
Follow us through the jump to find out what stars are fans of Derrick Morgan...
Derrick Morgan already has fans in the NFL, and they have names like Richard Seymour, Patrick Kerney and Osi Umenyiora and Chick Smith. Smith, a former All-Pro, is well known to Titans fan as the guy Albert worked with during his suspension for The Stomp. It turn out Smith tutored Derrick Morgan since the younger started playing college ball. Smith is now the D-Line coach at UT.
Nate Washington is hosting a football camp in his hometown of Toledo, so that makes him like a hip hop star? I'm very confused by this guy's terrible writing... and believe me, it's not from a lack of understanding of what hip hop is.
The Saints made OG Jahri Evans the highest paid interior lineman in the league thanks to a 7 year, $56.7 million contract. Evans was one of those players who would have been a UFA had the salary cap not expired, so he became a RFA (think Bo Scaife); as such he wasn't bound by the 30% rule.
Either the Broncos are lying about Ryan Clady's injury, or Ryan is lying. If he really did tear his patellar tendon (allegedly while playing basketball), then that's a major blow to the career of one of the league's premier young tackles.
Have love, send links to mcmaugustwest@gmail.com!
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Re: Rusty Smith
Pro-style grooming + bad college statistics =/= successful NFL QB.
Two things:
1. The David Klingler and Andre Ware’s of the world have created a disproportionate negative weight given to spread quarterbacks coming into the NFL. The system a kid ran in college should be given consideration. But, in recent years, it’s begun to get ridiculous.
2. This leads me to point two. Maybe, just maybe, these college coaches are on to something. Maybe this “spread thing” isn’t just a fad. Is it really too much to ask for some innovation in the NFL? These teams are running the same schemes that were run in the 80’s. And, the interesting thing is that a lot of the times someone tries something “outside of the box”, WHAM!, it works.
The best example is the wildcat, which was uber productive with the Dolphins. But, it took the Fins to install it for others to follow. This way a coach could do something new, and point to an example of it working in the NFL if it flopped. Coaches are so terrified of getting fired that they’d rather keep with the status quo so that people can’t directly point at their progressive offenses as the reason for failure.
Instead, we’re left evaluating QB prospects based on “who’s the best at analyzing a defense with their hands under another man’s ass”, instead of “who’s the best quarterback in this draft and how can we build an offense that fits his skill set”? It’s mind boggling. I’m completely convinced that the Titans would be a better team today if we’d designed the offense around Vince and committed to him from the getgo. Instead, we drafted Vince, and were stupid enough to think “we’re going to draft one of the most successful QB’s in High School and College football history who’s run the shotgun/spread his entire life. But, you know what, we’re going to put him under center. The hell with his skill set. He’s going under center. And if he can’t make it work, then he’s the one with the problem, not us. Because this is the NFL, where innovation is dead.”
/rant
by SuperHorn on May 6, 2010 10:56 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
So you think the spread would work in the NFL?
Why have you never said that until now?
Titans Blogger at Music City Miracles even though gramsey hates it.
"What if I was Peyton Manning?"- CJ to the ref after they picked up a personal foul flag for a late hit on him.
by Jimmy on May 6, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah. I'm a little redundant.
I just get frustrated by articles like that. The posturing that the NFL takes is so frustrating. Instead looking at the offenses these kids have been running for 8+ years, and thinking of ideas to make it work in the NFL, they are continuing to jam these square pegs into a round hole. They don’t explain it though. No, it just gets swept under the rug, while these puppets in the media maintain that it can’t be run in the NFL because there is “too much speed”. But, when it works with Tom Brady, or the Miami Dolphins, it’s just an example of the perfect personnel for the system. Well, isn’t that the point to begin with?
For all the QB busts in NFL history, not once has someone stopped think, maybe it’s not the kid’s that are screwing this up, maybe it’s our offenses. We’re forcing these quarterbacks to relearn an entirely new style of play in a system that is completely different than the ones they’ve run for their entire careers. And, we want results within two years. People don’t understand how impossibly difficult that is. These dinosaurs that are still married to the coaching tree of the likes of Buddy Ryan (yes Jeff Fisher, that means you) need to evolve or get out.
Yeah
You totally said what I said but with way fewer words. Brevity WIN.
If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by jasonkylebates on May 6, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I hear what you're saying, but...
…the guy was a 6th round pick. He’s got a good arm. He ran a specific system, which seems like it might be a good fit for the Titans’ Defense. So how was this a bad pick? Would it be a) more appropriate to continue to overpay KC into infinity to ride the bench, or b) hope like Hell that Chris Simms pans out?
Look, I like Simms and think he could still succeed—perhaps even with the Titans—but I don’t like him so much that I think it was inappropriate to take a flier on a late-round QB with some decent size, strength, and skills on his resume.
Look, Rusty Smith is not even gonna be a back-up next year. He’s gonna be on the Practice Squad. That is a far cry from where VY was—starting his fourth game and winning his fifth or sixth. But… does any of that have anything at all to do with Rusty Smith and his college experience?
Look, Smith’s expectations are low. Dramatically low. Not exactly zero, but best case, we’re sitting here wondering if Smith MIGHT be the next Billy Volek. So the press is looking for something to write about, and they latch onto practically the only things worth discussing in the kid’s entire resume: he’s got a good arm, and he’s got experience under center. What else could they say while staying at least partially positive in what is ultimately a Personal Interest piece?
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Storyteller's Playbook
Charter Member of the Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame
Wow. Look, I totally need an edit button.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Storyteller's Playbook
Charter Member of the Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame
I think you're missing my point a little.
It’s not really this guy in particular that I’m frustrated with. It’s the system in general. This in particular:
Two of this year’s nine draft picks were used to select wide receivers – Damian Williams in the third round and Marc Mariani in the seventh round – and it figured that they – as well as two free agents – had a better chance to showcase themselves during three workouts in two days with someone who understood the basics of the pro style offense.
The last quarterback drafted before Smith – Vince Young in 2006 – arrived with serious questions about his delivery and his ability to take the snap from center and execute a drop-back.
Eh. Let's not re-write history.
The questions were there. The Titans run a system, have run it for years, and it was an open question how VY was gonna run it. Now last year they made better use of the man—and he improved, too—but those were valid questions, I think.
It’s almost as if the Titans were a busines. And so the manager of the business wants to hire a guy with specific qualifications to fit a specific role. But then the owner decides on his own to go away from management’s decision and hire a different guy with a different skill-set. So. Does that mean that the second guy can’t succeed? No. But honestly, having been that guy before (i.e. flashy degree, little first hand experience with a specific system), it can be a tough transition, and you’re always going to have to answer questions. The real issue is how you deal with the scrutiny after the fact and adapt yourself to the needs of the organization that you just joined.
‘Cause as a general rule, bosses don’t like to change their whole organizations just for one guy, no matter how awesomely talented that one guy is. Yes, there are exceptions, but it’s pretty rare.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Storyteller's Playbook
Charter Member of the Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame
reminds me of the best Mike Leach quote of all time:
How could you possibly look yourself in the mirror and consider yourself an NFL coach and not be able to teach a guy to run back three steps, five steps and seven steps? I can teach a child that. Any coach in the NFL who can’t do that ought to be fired.
Music City Miracles blogger and official Jon Bovi tour manager.
But SuperHorn
The pro style offense is just superior. Spread offenses look fine and dandy in the stats column, but they don’t produce WINS. And it’s all about winning.
T-Rac's Posse - T-Rac is one boss raccoon.
My personal Tribute to Air McNair
by T--Rac's Posse on May 6, 2010 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
But Vince Young ran the spread.
And Vince Young produces wins!
Official MCM Hater!
Fire Terry Pendleton.
But not while running the spread
He runs pro-style in the NFL
T-Rac's Posse - T-Rac is one boss raccoon.
My personal Tribute to Air McNair
by T--Rac's Posse on May 6, 2010 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Vince Young is to spread offenses in college
what Joe Montana was to the West Coast offense in the pros. Some guys are so gifted and so well coached at it they defy the generalizations.
Music City Miracles blogger and official Jon Bovi tour manager.
Yes
SuperHorn, I know I’ve been absent recently, but I thought you knew me better than that.
T-Rac's Posse - T-Rac is one boss raccoon.
My personal Tribute to Air McNair
by T--Rac's Posse on May 6, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I figured. Just making sure. Have you been reading those books in your absence?
I’m curious to hear what you thought…
Agreed.
You put a college team running the spread against a decent NFL team, and the NFL team wins hands down.
That’s science.
The spread is a legitimate alternative
Those who think otherwise are just being ignorant dinosaurs. That being said, I’m not against Texas going back to more under-center. We’ll still spread the field and throw the ball, but you can argue that drive blocking is better for our O-lineman and the playaction + deep game is better for Gilbert and our receivers. The consistency at which we can run the ball remains to be seen, but as of now I am willing to give it a go.
by TheElusiveShadow on May 7, 2010 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't want to dig too much into this, because it's probably a topic for another forum.
Two things:
1. I have concerns about making wholesale, fundamental changes to an offense that isn’t broken. Cumulatively, Texas has had one of the best offenses in the country for the last 5 years. Furthermore, Gilbert is a PERFECT fit for the Colt McCoy spread offense, and he’s been running a similar system for years now. Why change that?
2. All that said, I do like that Greg Davis is willing to make a change. It’s something that can’t be said about the TItans staff. Davis saw a glaring need to establish a running game, and is willing to make a change to the offense to fix it. He may flop, but at least he’s shown a history of adapting his scheme in a way that he feels will best utilize his players strengths.
SuperHorn, I'm very much with you on this one.
The perpetual argument against using a non-traditional offense (Air Raid, Flexbone, Spread Option, etc.) in the NFL is that the defenses are too fast. That compels me to ask why are the defenses not as fast in college, or, more to the point, why are the defenses not as fast when compared to offenses in college? It makes sense to me that if NFL defensive players are, on average, faster than their college counterparts, then that should hold true for offensive players as well.
We actually see that same argument between the mid-major and major conferences of college football, too. I’d offer, however, that the success Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech and Urban Meyer at Florida completely destroys the hope of defending the notion that a non-traditional offense is effective only within the confines of non-elite talent or competition.
So what will it take to see if I’m right? Huevos. Cajónes. Big Swingin’ Brass Ones. The marginal cost-benefit for the NFL head coach and offensive coordinator that decide to try the Spread Option or Flexbone or Air Raid in the NFL isn’t good. If it works, they’re better able to win games, and the national consciousness thinks “Well of course it worked!” Other teams start experimenting with it and the schematic diversity of what we watch on Sunday gets a little bit greater. If it doesn’t work, however, said coaches will become the scapegoats for any lack of team success the team has that season. They’ll likely lose their jobs within one year. Then the national consciousness, and more importantly the consciousness of every coach in the league, will observe to high price of innovation.
Do I think non-traditional offenses can work in the NFL? Absolutely. I refuse to believe that there are only about two thousand men in a country of more than three-hundred-million people with the applicable skills and aptitude to succeed in the NFL. There are tons of players who go undrafted or get drafted low every year who excel in non-traditional offenses because they have non-traditional skills and aptitudes. Those players are a remarkable advantage for the front office of a team that commits to breaking traditional because those players are undervalued assets. Like Warren Buffett, an NFL team could reap huge rewards by having the testicular fortitude to go against popular opinion.
So what’s the catch? If there is a catch, and its hard to tell as it is, its that the relatively small number of teams and their professional nature could remove the inherent advantage of a non-traditional offense—its unfamiliarity. In the college game, year-to-year player turnover is higher, there substantially more potential opponents, and all the players juggle the responsibilities of coursework and the gridiron. In the NFL, the number of new players seeing the field each year is far lower, there are just 31 potential opponents, and the players and coaches spend every waking hour of the season preparing for the team they’ll see on Sunday. This gives NFL defenses a far greater capacity to adjust week-to-week to the different offenses they see. Do those differences mean that a non-traditional won’t work in the NFL? No. It simply means that relying on the same play no one’s ever seen before will only work for so long. It means that, as with any other offense, the same strategic constraints and ideals apply—attack different areas of the field, attack those different areas in several ways, disguise your intentions, execute well, and know your opponent.
Jeez. This turned into way more than I intended to write. But like I said, I’m with you on this one.
If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by jasonkylebates on May 6, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
We're on the same page here.
I refuse to believe that there are only about two thousand men in a country of more than three-hundred-million people with the applicable skills and aptitude to succeed in the NFL. There are tons of players who go undrafted or get drafted low every year who excel in non-traditional offenses because they have non-traditional skills and aptitudes. Those players are a remarkable advantage for the front office of a team that commits to breaking traditional because those players are undervalued assets.
I touched on this in a post I wrote about the spread a while back. The first team that goes spread, and commits to it, has a remarkable advantage in talent selection come draft time.
True
Unfortunately whether or not one is able to maintain that advantage depends largely upon the success of the scheme. If it succeeds, other teams will want to try it and will look to draft players to use in it. Those players’ draft stock will rise accordingly, and the advantage disappears. And just like that, the market efficiently integrates new information. The only real way to keep the advantage is if it isn’t an advantage at all i.e. the spread fails. This is of course assuming that all NFL personnel react rationally to the perceived success or failure of something, which is a flawed assumption. Hopefully, from our perspective anyway, the spread succeeds, but everyone else just makes like a Creationist and claims it doesn’t work and you can’t prove it.
If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by jasonkylebates on May 6, 2010 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Denver is about to give it a combat trial this coming year with Tim Tebow.
We’ll know soon enough from that, I think.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Storyteller's Playbook
Charter Member of the Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame
I love the pick of Tim Tebow.
It may be an epic failure. That remains a distinct possibility. But, the pick showed balls. Josh McDaniels has the kind of guts that I’d love to see in a coach. His mentor, Bill Belichick, is the only other guy in football with the cajones to do something like that.
I’m sick of these vanilla, copy cat offenses. It’s bad for the fans and players. It’s good to see someone that is trying to change that.
You don't draft chaplains and cheerleaders in the first round
Josh McDaniels can brag about how big his balls are when he’s the OC in Oakland in two years.
Music City Miracles blogger and official Jon Bovi tour manager.
by August West on May 6, 2010 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You like the pick just because it showed balls?
Just because a pick is risky doesn’t mean it should be applauded. PacMan Jones was a risky pick…didn’t work out too well there.
The Broncos were stupid for taking Tebow with their first round pick. He would have been on the board later.
by DoofusOfErasmus on May 7, 2010 12:20 AM CDT up reply actions
No. I like the pick because it was in line with an offense that McDaniels is trying to establish AND it shows balls.
McDaniels could have easily gone with one of the QB’s on the roster. But, he clearly saw something in Tebow that he feels will be valuable to his teams. You’ll find few coaches that have the guts to go up and get a guy when they know the media is going to hammer him for it.
And, there is no way you could know that Tebow would be on the board later. You’re making assumptions about something that is impossible to predict.
Not really.
Willis McGahee was one. As far as the Titans, a lot of the media disapproved of Vince Young and Chris Johnson. Coaches “go up and get a guy” they think will help them; I don’t think they really pay too much attention to what fans and the media will think.
As far as making assumptions, you seem to be operating under one, too: just because a system works in college, it doesn’t mean it will work in the NFL.
by DoofusOfErasmus on May 7, 2010 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't follow you on the Willis McGahee thing.
And, you’re crazy if you think fan reaction doesn’t influence draft selection to some extent.
To be clear, I’m not operating under the assumption that Tebow will play well, and the “Florida system” will work in the NFL. I don’t think it will work. But, McDaniels seems to think that Tebow’s skill set will translate well into some sort of NFL offense. I like it because that means this guy is continuing to innovate. Maybe it’ll flop, but pressing the envelope is good for fans and the league in general.
McGahee suffered a horrific knee injury...
in the national title game. A lot of people thought it was way too risky to use a first round pick on him. But the Bills thought he was worth it, so they went for it.
I just don’t think McDaniels is a huge innovator because he went for Tebow. It’s a gamble, yeah, but that doesn’t mean much in my p.o.v.
by DoofusOfErasmus on May 7, 2010 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, I like that about it, too.
I happen to think it was idiotic, but yeah, it was WAY entertaining.
My biggest issue with the pick, though, was this: Why trade up? Was Tebow not gonna be there two picks later?
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Storyteller's Playbook
Charter Member of the Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame
I thought the same thing.
Just wait two more picks and he’s yours anyway.
by DoofusOfErasmus on May 7, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
I think its less about the spread itself and more about these points:
A lot of spread QBs don’t read defenses, they throw to a spot at a time.
Spread WRs have a drastically small amounmt of routes that they learn to run.
Its things like that that makes the spread bad for talent evaluation. In some spread systems it is more evident than others.
Ain't no time for hesitatin'
All you got to do is groove
by BonzosMontreaux on May 6, 2010 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Well obviously its not only those things.
But i think the spread gives each position a certain deficiency in a part of their game that is something like that, rather than the fact that everyone hates the spread.
Ain't no time for hesitatin'
All you got to do is groove
by BonzosMontreaux on May 6, 2010 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Must ... control ... self ...
Repeating a conversation we’ve had before, in part…
1. Spread quarterbacks fail in the NFL because the attributes to be a successful college spread QB are not necessarily the same attributes to be a successful NFL QB. Spread QBs must be judged individually, not collectively, and generally are. You hear nothing about Rivers playing a lot of spread offense in college because he’s been a good NFL QB.
2. QB running can be a staple of a college offense in a way that is generally impossible and extremely undesirable in the NFL.
3. There is no singular “spread offense”. If what you’re looking at it spreading the field, NFL teams do do it. The Patriots ran basically the NFL version of the spread for most of 2007. The Titans played something like a spread the first 2 games of 2007, setting a franchise rushing record against the Jaguars and playing the Colts close.
4. The Dolphins were successful running the Wildcat because of a group of circumstances it’s difficult for another team to replicate: (i) the best and most knowledgeable coach of the Wildcat in David Lee; (ii) an excellent run-blocking offensive line; (iii) two excellent tailbacks who had presented both speed and power threats; (iv) one of said excellent tailbacks being a outstanding passer for a tailback; and (v) two more players, a fullback and official tailback, who could either block or be a viable option as an irregular ball carrier. If you have lose any single one of the components, it greatly limits your playcalling flexibility. When Ronnie Brown went out, the Dolphins still ran direct snap plays, but they stopped running the “Wildcat” and lost a lot of versatility.
5. NFL teams are CERTAINLY not running the same scheme they ran in the 1980’s. They run the same base packages, but those base packages are slightly different. The mid-1980s San Francisco 49ers running a West Coast offense wouldn’t succeed against a current NFL defense, and what any WCO team does now is different from and better than what the Walsh 49ers ran.
6. My take-away on Rusty Smith (and I haven’t read the article yet) is that you should not simply compare his statistics, including particularly a relatively low completion percentage, and declare him to be less accurate than, say, Colt McCoy, or any other spread quarterback who posted a higher completion percentage.
RE:
1. Spread quarterbacks fail in the NFL because the attributes to be a successful college spread QB are not necessarily the same attributes to be a successful NFL QB. Spread QBs must be judged individually, not collectively, and generally are. You hear nothing about Rivers playing a lot of spread offense in college because he’s been a good NFL QB.
Right. I suppose the point is that the majority of QB’s are now running a spread system in college. And, those systems are generally run exclusively out of the shotgun. My point is, those attributes would translate more favorably to the NFL if more teams adapted to capitalize on those talents. This isn’t exclusive to QB’s, but also RB’s and WR’s.
2. QB running can be a staple of a college offense in a way that is generally impossible and extremely undesirable in the NFL.
Why?
3. There is no singular "spread offense". If what you’re looking at it spreading the field, NFL teams do do it. The Patriots ran basically the NFL version of the spread for most of 2007. The Titans played something like a spread the first 2 games of 2007, setting a franchise rushing record against the Jaguars and playing the Colts close.
I’m aware of this, and said as much in the post you replied to regarding the Patriots. Though, the spread I see as most effective puts the QB in the shotgun 50+% of the time.
4. The Dolphins were successful running the Wildcat because of a group of circumstances it’s difficult for another team to replicate: (i) the best and most knowledgeable coach of the Wildcat in David Lee; (ii) an excellent run-blocking offensive line; (iii) two excellent tailbacks who had presented both speed and power threats; (iv) one of said excellent tailbacks being a outstanding passer for a tailback; and (v) two more players, a fullback and official tailback, who could either block or be a viable option as an irregular ball carrier. If you have lose any single one of the components, it greatly limits your playcalling flexibility. When Ronnie Brown went out, the Dolphins still ran direct snap plays, but they stopped running the "Wildcat" and lost a lot of versatility.
Completely agree. My response would be just as I said above….the Dolphins created an offensive set that maximized the potential of their personnel. Specifically, they identified that they had two #1 backs and wanted to find a way to get them on the field at once. The point to take home is that they adapted to the talents of their players, and designed an offense to fit their skill set, not the other way around. I’m not saying that every team should unilaterally run a spread offense. But, I think there are merits to installing a system based around the best skill players on your offense, notably the quarterback. And, in situations where the QB comes from a spread school, I feel it would be better to design an offense to suit his strengths rather than mold him into your offense.
5. NFL teams are CERTAINLY not running the same scheme they ran in the 1980’s. They run the same base packages, but those base packages are slightly different. The mid-1980s San Francisco 49ers running a West Coast offense wouldn’t succeed against a current NFL defense, and what any WCO team does now is different from and better than what the Walsh 49ers ran.
I understand there is some evolution. But, there isn’t nearly as much evolution as you’ve seen in the college and high school ranks. That’s the point I’m trying to make. If you went into a coma in 1980 and woke up, college ball would look like a different game altogether. For the most part, the pros would look very similar.
6. My take-away on Rusty Smith (and I haven’t read the article yet) is that you should not simply compare his statistics, including particularly a relatively low completion percentage, and declare him to be less accurate than, say, Colt McCoy, or any other spread quarterback who posted a higher completion percentage.
I see what your saying, but I couldn’t disagree more. The only reason I say that is that you bring up Colt McCoy, who’s 1/10 of a percentage away from being the career completion percentage record holder. And, he shattered the single season record with 77.6%. Rusty’s numbers aren’t even in the same stratosphere. I don’t care what kind of system you’re running, when you’re 20 points higher in completion percentage, it’s fair to say you’re more accurate.
Right. I suppose the point is that the majority of QB’s are now running a spread system in college. And, those systems are generally run exclusively out of the shotgun. My point is, those attributes would translate more favorably to the NFL if more teams adapted to capitalize on those talents. This isn’t exclusive to QB’s, but also RB’s and WR’s.
To be frank, I really don’t care what QBs are doing in college: I care rather about what skillsets they have. The problem is that most college spread offense QBs, even the most successful ones, don’t have skillsets that let them succeed at the NFL level.
As to shotgun, NFL teams should probably play more shotgun. When it comes to teaching shotgun, I think Leach is pretty right, that it’s relatively easy to teach taking a snap under center. If a QB has other attributes I like and is coachable (which would be an attribute I’d like), I will teach him this. I don’t have the numbers offhand, but I think the Patriots played more than half of 2007 and even more of 2008 in the shotgun, and the Titans also played a lot of shotgun in the first two games of 2007 I mentioned.
On Colt McCoy and Rusty Smith, and the use of completion percentage as a judge for pass accuracy, I think it’s useful to make a distinction as to what types of passes a QB is throwing. Colt McCoy, in my eyes, was very, very accurate on passes under about 8 yards downfield (which I’ll call short passes), was less accurate on passes 8-20 yards downfield (medium passes), and really struggled on passes more than 20 yards downfield (long passes). I have much less strong a feeling as to how accurate, precisely, Rusty Smith is, but for various reasons, it’s much more important in the NFL to be able to complete medium and long passes. Smith’s accuracy on medium and deep passes may be more than enough to counteract McCoy’s likely greater accuracy at the short level. As an example (and making up Smith’s numbers), Smith may be, on a scale of 1 to 10, a 6 on short, medium, and long passes in terms of accuracy, while McCoy may be a 9 on short passes, a 5 on medium passes, and a 3 on long passes.
It’s actually this emphasis on medium and long plays, particularly, passes, where I think NFL spread advocates (not just you, but also others) trip up. Arguably what made the 2007 Patriots, in particular, so successful was that they added Randy Moss, who may be the #1 deep threat in NFL history. In particular, what the Moss addition did was that, as the Pats showed early and often that season, teams had to guard against the deep pass, which opened up space underneath for Welker and the rest of the offense, plus they ran screens so damn well.
In the NFL, it’s generally just too damn hard for any offense to drive down the field in 3 to 10 yard chunks and have consistent success. In college, the spread can have more success without that because the offense tends to be faster than the defense and tackling is worse and missed assignments are more common; none of those is typically true in the NFL, though there are a few exceptions (GB @DET last year on Thanksgiving did some college spread pass offense type stuff with lots of quick hitches and bubble screens, relying on wideouts to break tackles). Again, if you have copies of the Titans’ first two games of 2007, go back and take another look at them. For as many yards as they got against the Jaguars on the ground, the Titans really didn’t have that productive a day offensively, and then the adjustments the Colts made the next week, shading the defenders so they’re all playing inside technique or even closer in, and bringing Bob Sanders in the box. If you can hit the medium and long passes, you can bust that defense, but the Titans couldn’t and the spread experiment was over.
I know I skipped over QB running, so I’ll just hit that briefly: investment, value over replacement, and rarity of guys who can run with speed and power (compare Pat White and VY, for instance).
RE:
On Colt McCoy and Rusty Smith, and the use of completion percentage as a judge for pass accuracy, I think it’s useful to make a distinction as to what types of passes a QB is throwing. Colt McCoy, in my eyes, was very, very accurate on passes under about 8 yards downfield (which I’ll call short passes), was less accurate on passes 8-20 yards downfield (medium passes), and really struggled on passes more than 20 yards downfield (long passes). I have much less strong a feeling as to how accurate, precisely, Rusty Smith is, but for various reasons, it’s much more important in the NFL to be able to complete medium and long passes. Smith’s accuracy on medium and deep passes may be more than enough to counteract McCoy’s likely greater accuracy at the short level. As an example (and making up Smith’s numbers), Smith may be, on a scale of 1 to 10, a 6 on short, medium, and long passes in terms of accuracy, while McCoy may be a 9 on short passes, a 5 on medium passes, and a 3 on long passes.
I don’t want this to digress, because it’s not relevant Titans related. But, I think your assessment of Colt isn’t accurate, and sounds like something that was regurgitated from ESPN. And, I don’t think it’s especially enlightening to say that a quarterback is less accurate from 8-20 yards as opposed to 8 yards. I’ll just say this, rarely, at any distance, was a pass incomplete as a direct result of Colt’s inaccuracy.
It’s actually this emphasis on medium and long plays, particularly, passes, where I think NFL spread advocates (not just you, but also others) trip up. Arguably what made the 2007 Patriots, in particular, so successful was that they added Randy Moss, who may be the #1 deep threat in NFL history. In particular, what the Moss addition did was that, as the Pats showed early and often that season, teams had to guard against the deep pass, which opened up space underneath for Welker and the rest of the offense, plus they ran screens so damn well.
This point is not lost on me.
I know I skipped over QB running, so I’ll just hit that briefly: investment, value over replacement, and rarity of guys who can run with speed and power (compare Pat White and VY, for instance).
Give me more thoughts on this. Here’s my perspective. For Vince to be at his potential, he needs to be running the ball regularly. That’s what made him dangerous. You understood the risk(injury)/reward matrix when you drafted him. Put simply, would you rather have a quarterback with the possibility for a transcendent, but short career? Or one, with an above average and long career?
Another point to add to the running QB commentary
It’s important to note that, at least based on my anecdotal observation, QBs tend to be hurt during runs because a) they don’t regular carry the ball and consequently don’t know how to take a hit, b) the play broke down into a scrabble and was not a designed run, c) both. Paul Johnson argues in one of his playbooks that having a quarterback regularly run the ball is not anymore inherently dangerous than standing in the pocket. Yes, the QB will get hit, but he knows that going in. He’s prepared for it.
Obviously this isn’t the most compelling or convincing argument in the world, but I think you get what I’m saying. I’d be interested in comparing the injury rate of option quarterbacks against the injury rates of running backs and of regular quarterbacks on scrambles. I would guess that they would not be significantly different from running backs and would be significantly lower than the regular QBs. Just a guess though.
If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by jasonkylebates on May 6, 2010 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Colt McCoy Aside:
I generally watched between 5 and 8 Texas games a year in the Colt McCoy era to one extent or another, with varying degrees of attention. I paid the most attention to the nationally relevant games, like the bowl games and Red River Shootout. His problems throwing medium and long passes come primarily from mediocre arm strength; he can be accurate on those passes, in addition to short ones, if he can stand there and drive the ball, which creates its own issues, especially with his lack of pocket presence. Obviously, you have a much higher opinion of McCoy’s NFL future than I do (I think his upside is Bruce Gradkowski, though I think he’s more accurate on short passes than Gradkowski was coming out). If it’s helpful, feel free to pretend my “successful spread QB” is instead Todd Reesing, who had a much better completion percentage than Rusty Smith and whom I’d rank as maybe a 9.5, 3, 1 on short, medium, long accuracy (loved the guy, but he had NO arm).
Running QBs:
Here’s the problem: go back to the Wildcat stuff, and think of it as a kind of continuum. To have a true running threat, you need a QB who can run with power and speed. These guys are extraordinarily rare; as I briefly indicated, somebody like Pat White may have speed, but gets tackled too easily in the NFL and can’t run inside the tackles. The Titans in VY do have one of those rare guys.
The problem is, the NFL is a passing league, and the best way to win includes a passing attack that can succeed on medium and long passes. The problem is, it’s very difficult to find a QB who can successfully throw medium and long passes. Most teams consider themselves lucky to have one, some teams don’t have one, and almost nobody has two. These guys also are highly paid, so it’s difficult to retain more than one and they represent a significant financial investment. If you have one of these guys, you protect him, because the value he gives over your next best option is very large.
The problem, though, is running is simply not that valuable in most circumstances, because it doesn’t produce medium and long gains with sufficient frequency. You’re thus putting a hugely valuable asset at risk for relatively small gains, and that’s just dumb. Running your QB makes the most sense when your QB kind of sucks. That’s actually what we’ve seen from the Titans, generally speaking; they ran a fair amount of plays that took advantage of VY’s mobility in 2006 and gave him pretty free reign to scramble. The problem, though, is that teams adjusted and closed stuff down because he had trouble with the medium and long passes that keep defenses honest.
Somewhat counter-intuitively, I’d say the best thing for VY as a runner is probably the development of VY as a passer. That would force teams to expand out their defense and create more running room on scrambles-something like the 2006 Colts game in Nashville comes to mind as the kind of thing that hasn’t happened since.
The one thing that hasn’t really been tried is to pick up a couple of the Pat White-types, or maybe Armanti Edwards, and run plug-and-play rushing QBs, and if one of them gets hurt, he gets hurt. I’d like to see a team try it, because I’d like to know what the results would be, but I suspect defenses would close down the field successfully until these guys show they can throw with some reliability, if one of the guys does develop as a QB he’d be too valuable to lose, and the QB as team leader phenomenon could easily mean your locker room gets screwed up by QB loyalties. For this last, if I may use a cross-sport comparison, think the Boston Red Sox experiment of a couple years ago about not having a designated closer and how the bullpen improved after they named one; these guys may be professional athletes, but they’re also humans, and humans can be weird.
You and I definitely look at this the same way.
And I also agree that if you have a good or better passer, using him as a regular running threat is foolhardy in most circumstances. After thinking about it, I don’t necessarily advocate the Titans switching to a triple-option offense with Vince at the helm for a couple of reasons. First, I don’t think Vince would buy into it, and I think his success, like most athletes, partly depends on his ability to buy into what he’s asked to do. Second, I believe Vince can become a consistently good passer, and if he can, it would be foolish to have him run an offense based primarily on his ability as a runner.
All that being said, if I woke up tomorrow as the Bill Parcells of my own mythical NFL franchise, you bet your ass I’ll be building my team to run the Flexbone Triple Option. The cool thing about it is that the QB, apart from good running ability and decision making, only really has to have good arm strength with average to below average accuracy. The reason being is that the only time you’re going to be throwing the ball is when the opposing team has completely sold out to stop the dive, keep, and pitch. To do that, they by necessity must have more men closer to the line of scrimmage, and at some point that means bringing your high safety down. That defensive adjustment negates the QBs inherent weaknesses as a passer. All he needs to do is get the ball deep downfield and let the receiver run under it. Which explains the knock on Georgia Tech’s Demaryius Thomas—simple route tree. Almost all that he was asked to do as a receiver was block DBs and LBs and then occasionally haul ass downfield to reel in a bomb. His success in the NFL will depend largely on how his OC uses that skill set, and whether or not he has the aptitude to enlarge said skill set.
If I hit a hole-in-one on this grand slam the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by jasonkylebates on May 7, 2010 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I think instead of Hip Hop
The guy meant Pass Drop
HIYOOO!!!
Who else loves rhyming (or rapping, if you will)?
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MCM Feaux Pas
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by T--Rac's Posse on May 6, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
DonFrancisco will be brought in front of the MCM disciplinary committee (chaired by hal)
This will result in a hefty fine of some amount of MCM bucks.
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Fire Terry Pendleton.
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by Aditya T (smashville) on May 6, 2010 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Damn
The bartender said I couldn’t pay her in MCM dollars. What a Foo!!
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by jaketitan427 on May 6, 2010 5:40 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
About the same as the Euro, no?
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For everyone talking about the lack of innovation in NFL offenses.....
How great would it be to see the Titans incorporate a variation of the “ski-gun” triple option. For anyone who is unfamiliar with it, the ski-gun is basically the flexbone out of pistol (you can search youtube for videos). Vince at QB, Hall or Blount as the lone set back, CJ and Johnson/Ringer as the wings. Or you could even put Nate, Britt or Williams at a wing to disguise the personnel. I am not suggesting this as a base set for our offense, but incorporating something like this every once in a while could really give defensive coordinators headaches.
I have only one thing to say
after reading all these lengthy, well thought out arguments.
Chick Smith? That’s either a typo or the reason he’s a tough guy.
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