Not too long ago our favorite stat guys, Football Outsiders (what up NewsToTom!) and a guest columnist named Nate Forster, unleashed upon the geekdom a new metric they call SackSEER. The goal of the metric is to predict the best edge pass rusher in the draft class of any given year. The retro-active tests on it are pretty promising (though, one of the highest rated players of the past decade was... Jason Babin), so they decided to test the system on this year's group.
Now, these are all predictive, thus keep in mind there's a margin of error of absurd failure. Colts pick Jerry Hughes was the highest rated, but number two on the list was our man:
Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Vertical: 34", Short Shuttle: 4.43, SRAM: 0.59, Missed Games: 1
Projection: 23.3 Sacks through Year 5
As a prospect, Derrick Morgan is the polar opposite of former teammate Michael Johnson (now with Cincinnati). Morgan was much more productive in college -- building off of a solid sophomore campaign by recording 12.5 sacks in 13 games as a junior -- but lacks Johnson's athleticism, registering mediocre vertical and short shuttle numbers at the Combine. Conventional wisdom says that Morgan is the "safest" edge rusher in the draft, but SackSEER considers Morgan as a middle-of-the-road talent, basically a 50-50 shot.
Now this is certainly nothing to get upset over, just something to keep in mind. Of course, systems can't measure things like motor, drive to improve and all of the other intangibles that Morgan scores so well on, so I'm still pumped over this pick. Plus, getting the best non-undersized DE in the draft at 16 isn't to shabby.