Football Outsiders Metric Very 'Meh' On The Greatness Of Derrick Morgan

by August West on Apr 23, 2010 2:43 PM CDT in Tennessee Titans Commentary

Not too long ago our favorite stat guys, Football Outsiders (what up NewsToTom!) and a guest columnist named Nate Forster, unleashed upon the geekdom a new metric they call SackSEER. The goal of the metric is to predict the best edge pass rusher in the draft class of any given year. The retro-active tests on it are pretty promising (though, one of the highest rated players of the past decade was... Jason Babin), so they decided to test the system on this year's group.

Now, these are all predictive, thus keep in mind there's a margin of error of absurd failure. Colts pick Jerry Hughes was the highest rated, but number two on the list was our man:

Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech

Vertical: 34", Short Shuttle: 4.43, SRAM: 0.59, Missed Games: 1

Projection: 23.3 Sacks through Year 5

As a prospect, Derrick Morgan is the polar opposite of former teammate Michael Johnson (now with Cincinnati). Morgan was much more productive in college -- building off of a solid sophomore campaign by recording 12.5 sacks in 13 games as a junior -- but lacks Johnson's athleticism, registering mediocre vertical and short shuttle numbers at the Combine. Conventional wisdom says that Morgan is the "safest" edge rusher in the draft, but SackSEER considers Morgan as a middle-of-the-road talent, basically a 50-50 shot.

Now this is certainly nothing to get upset over, just something to keep in mind. Of course, systems can't measure things like motor, drive to improve and all of the other intangibles that Morgan scores so well on, so I'm still pumped over this pick. Plus, getting the best non-undersized DE in the draft at 16 isn't to shabby.

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They make a point in the article of noting that...

…the system is much better at predicting busts than booms. So all we really know from this is that Morgan appears to have the tools to succeed. Beyond that, even the article’s author cautions against reading too much into this thing.

That said, the article seems to not only suggest but actually insist that JPP will be a monumental flop. This was why, I think, everyone was even more concerned than they’d already been—because the system is actively GOOD at predicting flops. It’s failure is in predicting greatness.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."

Storyteller's Playbook
Charter Member of the Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame

by DannoE on Apr 23, 2010 2:51 PM CDT reply actions

How happy were you when the Giants took JPP?

Titans Blogger at Music City Miracles even though gramsey hates it.

"What if I was Peyton Manning?"- CJ to the ref after they picked up a personal foul flag for a late hit on him.

by Jimmy on Apr 23, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions

^This

I wouldn’t worry too much. As long as the system says Morgan won’t be a flop, I’m good.

Oh, and it also says that Jason Babin is better than Julius Peppers (snicker).

by TNTitans on Apr 23, 2010 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions

OT

Jason La Cinfora is STILL saying Albert Haynesworth to Tennessee later tonight. WTF !!

"It's making my head spin from all the activities we can do!"

by jaketitan427 on Apr 23, 2010 3:02 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Now he's tweeting it !!!

Could it really Still happen? Are is he just trying to hype us up for the draft. Jason, put down the meth pipe, he’s been up for SIX str8 days.

"It's making my head spin from all the activities we can do!"

by jaketitan427 on Apr 23, 2010 3:19 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I have to admit that Haynesworth and Morgan would be a tantalizing d-line

I’m not really excited for an Albert trade though, considering I think in a deep draft the 2 third rounders we have will be a great asset. Maybe I’d think differently if we still had a 2nd rounder, but so far I’m eagerly looking ahead to possible corners in the third.

"I don't care if I have to run 100 times or pass it 100 times, ... Whatever it takes to win is all that matters to me." - VY

by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Apr 23, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions

Getting Haynesworth back makes all of our existing corners better than anything we would find in the 3rd.

Official MCM Hater!

Adrian Peterson just fumbled again.

by gramsey712 on Apr 23, 2010 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions

^^ this

by rothbard on Apr 23, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Not to mention

we have 2 picks in the third, one of which we can not give up. So if we were to get Al and a corner, to go along with Capt. Morgan, I would consider that a great start to the draft.

by bullrider73 on Apr 23, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions

I would love to see

us work something out similar to the trade we did with Dallas for Pacman. Give Washington a 3rd this year for fat all and either a 4th or a 2nd next year depending on if he hits certain production goals.

by Titan in WV on Apr 23, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions

For God's sake, stop toying with my emotions.

The Skins are still looking to trade him according to everything I’ve read, but all I’ve been reading linked to Al is the Saints. I can only hope we pull this off tonight.

by J3G77 on Apr 23, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks for the shout out

For the record, I have nothing to do with SackSEER and didn’t know about it until it went up on the site. That’s Nate’s project, not that I know Nate.

I will say, however, that SackSEER’s evaluation did nothing to contradict my pre-existing personal belief that Morgan’s upside is as an 8 year starter at LDE who gets 8-10 sacks in a great year and probably never makes a Pro Bowl, let alone gets close to an All-Pro team.

by NewsToTom on Apr 23, 2010 3:17 PM CDT reply actions

Was there an All-Pro DE in this draft?

Titans Blogger at Music City Miracles even though gramsey hates it.

"What if I was Peyton Manning?"- CJ to the ref after they picked up a personal foul flag for a late hit on him.

by Jimmy on Apr 23, 2010 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Not in my book

Which is why I argued DE over CB in the abstract, then said a couple days before the draft I wanted the Titans to take Earl Thomas and wanted them to draft Kyle Wilson when the pick came around last night.

Notwithstanding SackSEER, JPP was my favorite DE prospect simply because I thought he was the only guy with All Pro/multi-Pro Bowl potential and was the best bet for above average play at RDE, which is where the need is.

by NewsToTom on Apr 23, 2010 3:53 PM CDT reply actions

Not too concerned about a 4 variable model with an R-squared of .4

I’m sure it’s the best of all possible fits, but I’m not going to get too worked up about it not loving Morgan. He was productive, the measurables are there, he possesses refined pass rushing skills, and he plays hard. I guess that .01 means on the short shuttle means Morgan’s career is shot.

This was a home run pick. The most commonly used comp for Morgan is Jared Allen: his combine numbers?

33" vertical
4.36 short shuttle
38.5 sacks in 33 starts at Idaho State
Sacks through year 5: 57.5

Morgan
34" vertical
4.43 short shuttle
19.5 sacks in 27 starts at Georgia Tech

by WC22 on Apr 23, 2010 3:54 PM CDT reply actions