Community Projections: Kerry Collins
by Aditya T (smashville) on Jul 2, 2009 9:18 AM CDT
in Community Projections
46 comments
This month we will project individual player statistics for the upcoming season. We will start with Kerry Collins. Here are his 2008 stats:
What will Collins's final line in these 5 (Games, Completion Percentage, Passing Yards, Passing TDs and INTs, ) stats be?
Put your predictions in the comments below. When the season ends I will add them up and post them in a recap.
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I'm-a say
16 games, 63% completions, 3315 yds, 20 TDs, 9 INTs. And in my estimation, that’s conservative. With all the new passing toys at his disposal, I’d peg 3000 yds and 18-20 tds as the new Collins ground floor.
Optimism? Maybe. Foolish optimism? Probably.
by Knox the Fox on Jul 2, 2009 9:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Straight up guessin!
11 games, 57% completions, 2600 yds, 15 TD’s, 8 Int’s. I say this only because KFC is getting up there in age, and think that with one good straight up shot he could go down. (and mostly cause I personally wanna see my boy play again) On the flip side if he plays 16 I could see 3500 yds out of him.
Someone once said "Vince Young bleeds two toned blue!" But I disagree, because The Great One Doesnt Bleed!!
by Vincanity on Jul 2, 2009 9:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey Vincanity
You should update your quote. Just change “Great One” to “Irrelevant One”
T-Rac's Posse - Just do it. T-Rac wants you to.
by T--Rac's Posse on Jul 2, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wild Guess
16 games, 3200 Yrds 16-18 TDs, 65%. 8INT
by RhiNo6705 on Jul 2, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My prediction
Games: 16
Completion %: 60
Yards: 3150
TDs: 15 (still expecting more rushing TDs than passing)
INTs: 10 (more opportunites, more risk = a few more INTs, but still not bad)
by hartley on Jul 2, 2009 10:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lord.
Three predictions with a completion percentage over 60%! He’s only done that once in his entire career.
I think his stats will be very similar to last year for two reasons. A) I’m not confident that he’s capable of putting up big numbers. B) More importantly, I think the running game will be so good that he won’t be throwing the ball much.
Something to think about…most of these predictions above show more yards for Kerry. On the surface, that’s a good thing. But, I think Kerry having a smaller stat line is probably a good indicator of the teams success. Fish isn’t going to have him slinging the ball around a bunch unless we are playing from behind.
by SuperHorn on Jul 2, 2009 10:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What about just making a prediction?
Titans Blogger at Music City Miracles even though gramsey hates it.
by Jimmy on Jul 2, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought I did...
I think his stats will be very similar to last year
16 Games 58.3% 2676 Yards 12 TDs 7 INTs
by SuperHorn on Jul 2, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it's too much of a stretch...
to say that Kerry can raise his completion percentage 1.7% from last year just having Kenny Britt catching the football instead of Justin McCareins. And having Kerry’s numbers drift towards the mean for NFL quarterbacks doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re throwing too much or playing from behind. I fully expect robust rushing totals too, but I think that Heimerdinger will make it a more balanced attack than last year, and that’ll be a good thing for the Titans.
by Knox the Fox on Jul 2, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he can complete 58.3
to the ragtag group from last year, you’re trying to say that britt, cook and washington couldn’t bump that number at least 1.7%??
get real. i don’t care what you say, drops were a huge problem last year, especially with the worst regularly used WR in the league. no doubt if kerry stays healthy it will be 60 or better.
The Dual Threat, Official Enforcer/Stat Geek of MCM.
by hal41605 on Jul 2, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
britt, cook and washington couldn’t bump that number at least 1.7%
That’s exactly what I’m saying. Expecting good production out of rookies is a pipe dream. I hope things work out for them, but it doesn’t happen very often.
Washington is an upgrade. But, the difference in production/talent from Brandon Jones isn’t dramatic. 60% I can deal with. That seems reasonable. But, once we start getting above 63% (some of the predictions) it puts him in the top 10 in the NFL. He’s never gotten above 62%. Projecting that he’ll complete more than 63% of his passes isn’t realistic.
by SuperHorn on Jul 2, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree. 63% is too high
But if they use CJ more out of the backfield to catch balls, that will up the percentage a bit too. so I think 62% is reasonable.
T-Rac's Posse - Just do it. T-Rac wants you to.
by T--Rac's Posse on Jul 2, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
a look at the numbers
kerry last year:
242/415= %58.3 completion
mccareins numbers:
30 catches/ 72 targets = %41.7 catches made
kerry to everyone NOT named mccareins:
212/405= 61.8% completion
just subtracting Jmac isn’t quite fair, because those passes had to go somewhere, so assume those 72 passes went to a second brandon jones, a very average WR, playing in jmacs spot. this is at least close to fair because they were both used as possession receivers with comparable yards per catch (bjones=11.7, jmac=13.0), receptions per game played (bjones= 2.6, jmac=2.1) and yards per game played (bjones=28.1, jmac =29.4). as a counter example using gage would not be fair because he was the “big play” guy w/ 19.1 yards per catch and 54.3 yards per game played
bjones last year:
41 catches/ 62 targets= 66.1% completion
bjones w/ 72 targets:
72 × 66.1%= 47.59 catches, we’ll round down for the sake of conservatism= 47 catches/ 72 targets
and finally, kerry with imaginary second bjones in the lineup instead of mccareins:
259/415= 62.4%
unless you want to argue that collins threw the ball particularly crappy to jmac as compared to how he threw to everyone else, the numbers say even having an incredibly mediocre guy in jmac’s place would have pushed him well north of 60%. britt supposedly has fantastic hands, and we added a big time TE option as well as a field stretcher in nate washington who should provided a lot more space for intermediate passes than last season. and then you have to think about how they will be increasing CJ’s role in the passing game vs. being a strictly screen/dump off guy like last year. i think you can pretty much count on kerry (if he stays healthy) having the best season of his career across the board.
The Dual Threat, Official Enforcer/Stat Geek of MCM.
by hal41605 on Jul 2, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You have just been Stat Geeked!
Titans Blogger at Music City Miracles even though gramsey hates it.
by Jimmy on Jul 2, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very nice work.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
by DannoE on Jul 2, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's stay objective.
Why sub in Brandon Jones, when we can just replace JMac with Nate Washington?
Kerry without JMac:
212/343 = 61.8%
Nate Washington:
40/78 = 51.3%
Adjusted for McCareins targets =
37/72
Kerry with Nate instead of JMac:
249/415 = 60%
And, while the Y/A may change, it will only be slightly. Nate averaged 2.1 YPC more than McCareins last year.
That’s reasonable. It was the 63% and 65% projections that I really had the issues with.
Still disagree with this, though:
i think you can pretty much count on kerry (if he stays healthy) having the best season of his career across the board.
That would mean more than 22 TDs, less than 7 INTs, and better than 7.5 Y/A. I don’t think that’s really what you mean, FWIW, considering it isn’t consistent with your projection below.
by SuperHorn on Jul 2, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
nate washington is not a possession receiver
and you can’t compare two different schemes like that, especially when it is one team that leans more to the pass and one team that is totally run centered. big stretch.
also the steelers used nate out of the slot, which i highly doubt will happen here. nate had no real role on the steelers because holmes did everything he could do and did it better than nate could do it. he will be our #1 deep threat. in tennessee, he will face a lot of teams trying to cheat up 8 men in the box to stop cj. last year in pittsburgh all defenses had to worry about was a banged up willie parker or mewelde moore. BIG difference.
by across the board i guess i really meant “there will be no doubt that this is the best season of kerry’s career”. no, he probably will not set career bests in every statistical category because this is still a run first offense. but i’m talking about a season so good that even you, superhorn, will have to say, “damn, that was good!”
The Dual Threat, Official Enforcer/Stat Geek of MCM.
by hal41605 on Jul 2, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll agree to meet in the middle.
But, you can’t have it both ways. On one hand, everyone is saying “Nate makes us better.” On the other, we’re not including his stats for the purpose of our comparison.
I understand he’s different, and agree that he’ll make us better with his ability to stretch the field. However, inserting Brandon Jones and his 66% caught instead of JMac really skews things. 66% passes caught would likely put him in the top 25 in the AFC (67.2% is # 20). That’s above average and better than anyone else on the team.
You’re point about removing JMac is taken, and well put. But, I think ~60% is probably about right.
by SuperHorn on Jul 2, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
predicted 61%
hope for 63%
dream about 65%
i do think nate makes us better, but i doubt that impact will be felt in the completion percentage area, because i hope he’s 15-20 yards downfield before we throw it to him. the only reason i would exclude him from comparison is because he isn’t like anyone we have had before, or at least certainly not like anyone we had last season. in my head, gage’s YPC should decline next year because a lot of those deep throws won’t go to him anymore and he will be working the 12-17 yard zone, but his catch % should increase due to that change as well.
you are right about the fact that people are predicting kerry to do stuff he has never done before, but honestly i think that’s exactly what will/should happen. playing behind a brick wall o-line like ours with our running game and our emphasis on intermediate passing, now with some weapons to throw to, is about as favorable as it gets in the nfl for a QB. if britt and/or cook live up to the hype and we throw to CJ more, this could be an offense that can run it down people’s throat AND create mismatches all over the field in the passing game. maybe i’m getting a little ahead of myself, but when was the last time titans fans could even pretend to be excited about the offense as a whole?
one thing is for sure though: no more excuses for kerry if he struggles. it’s not gonna get much better than this.
The Dual Threat, Official Enforcer/Stat Geek of MCM.
by hal41605 on Jul 2, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And it also should be noted...
More yards for Kerry doesn’t necessarily mean more attempts for Kerry. Having a guy like Washington who can turn a 5 yard pass into a 50 yard pass means more yards. Having guys actually catch the ball means more yards. Not more throws, but a better rate of return on his throws. Again, the question is whether or not Washington and Britt are 324 yards better overall than McCareins and Brandon Jones. Seems likely enough to me.
by Knox the Fox on Jul 2, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is all this drops talk?
It’s completely subjective. Yes, McCareins looked like crap last year. Yes, he dropped some balls. But, the Titans were #25 in the league in drops (#1, the Jags, being the worst). McCareins isn’t even in the top 20 in drops. Gage is, though. Gage is also in the top 8 in big plays from last year.
The same ‘guts’ of the receiving core are back, with the addition of a few rookies and a new #3 receiver. If we get the production out of Kerry this year that we did last, we should be doing back flips.
by SuperHorn on Jul 2, 2009 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, drop stats are worthless
they aren’t standardized and almost no reputable stat publisher even messes with them. the best you can look at is catch% like football outsiders does, which is simply catches made/ number of times thrown to.
we only have 1 receiver we actually used last year returning, so not sure what you mean by the “guts” being back. we return only 45 of the 117 receptions to WRs last season = 38.46%.
nate washington is only a #3 receiver on a team with not one but TWO super bowl MVP WRs ahead of him. calling him a #3 just for the sake of your argument is foolish.
The Dual Threat, Official Enforcer/Stat Geek of MCM.
by hal41605 on Jul 2, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't really mean to focus on drops.
That was really just an offhand comment. What I’m saying is that Washington is more likely to get more yards out of his catches than Jones. Jones averaged 11 ypc last season, Washington averaged 15.8 over roughly the same number of catches (41 for Jones, 40 for Washington). Washington’s career ypc average is 16.4. Maybe we won’t use him in the same way as he was used in Pittsburgh, but from where I’m sitting he’s going to do better than Jones on a per catch basis.
You apply Washington’s ypc average from last year to Jones’ over the same number of catches and you get an extra 199 yards. You apply his career average and you get an extra 223 yards. This isn’t a certainty, but I don’t think it’s being optimistic to think the guy can be as good as he has been in his career to this point now that he’s joined the Titans. This doesn’t rely on Kerry throwing more passes than last year or Washington catching more passes than Jones did. It’s just an assumption that when he has the ball, Washington will do more with it than Jones.
You’re then relying on Kenny Britt and Jared Cook combined to gain 100-130 more yards than McCareins and Crumpler did last year (or Britt, Cook and Crumpler combining for more than McCareins and Crumpler last year, or whatever combination of 3rd receiver and tight ends we use this year combining for more than what we got last year). Yes, there is no professional track record on Britt or Cook to rely on, but as this is an exercise in conjecture anyhow, I’m guessing that they’ll somehow find a way to give us a better profit margin when they do catch the ball. That’s just a guess, nothing to back it up. Maybe they’re going to be worse, I don’t know. But if the Titans can somhow manage to squeeze the extra yards over the course of the season, that’ll give Kerry 3000 yards.
by Knox the Fox on Jul 2, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very good point.
I tend to agree that Titans success =/= throwing the ball a lot.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
by DannoE on Jul 2, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the only season that matters is last season
16 games
61% comp
2900 yards
18 tds
8ints
The Dual Threat, Official Enforcer/Stat Geek of MCM.
by hal41605 on Jul 2, 2009 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
.
Games: 15
Completion Percentage: 60.2%
Yards: 3260
Touchdowns: 18
Interceptions: 12
by titanbt53 on Jul 2, 2009 11:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
How dare you
Collins will complete 60.3% of his passes.
by TheElusiveShadow on Jul 2, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
15 games
3100 yards
19 TDs
9 INTs
61.7% completion
T-Rac's Posse - Just do it. T-Rac wants you to.
by T--Rac's Posse on Jul 2, 2009 11:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Stop being pansies that round
16 games
3246 yards
20 TDs
10 INTs
61.23% completion
Who doesn't want to be a promiscuous dope fiend?
by BonzosMontreaux on Jul 2, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
my entry
14 games
60 % completion
2800 yards
14 TDs
7 INTs
I’m guessing Kerry will get dinged up once or twice this year, but that the passing game overall is more effective than last year, but not radically so because the running game will also be good.
by numbertenox on Jul 2, 2009 1:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
kerry collins prediction
16 games
60% completion
3650 yards
21 TDs
9 Ints
You're not wrong walter, you're just an asshole.
by collinzoober5 on Jul 2, 2009 2:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
14 games
58% completion
2923 yards
17 TDs
8 INTs
by Aditya T (smashville) on Jul 2, 2009 2:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll bite:
Collins:
15 Games
59% Completion%
2810 Yards
14 TDs
12 INTs
Some tough defenses this year, especially on the road. CJ should be even more of a force, and Washington will open-up the TEs even more for mid-to-short passing plays.
Overall, a very slightly better offense; but, a tougher 16 games won’t make that an easy fact to prove during the season.
P.S. Are we there yet?
"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez
"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."
by The Jade Scorpion on Jul 2, 2009 3:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Collins
16 Games
112% Completion
10,000 yards passing
62 Touchdowns
3 Interceptions
by Sean S on Jul 2, 2009 6:11 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I have two seperate predictions:
This first one is what I think will be Kerry’s stats if he has a good start and avoids injuries:
16 games
60.5 % completion percentage
17 TDs
7 INTS
This prediction is if Kerry has a slow start because of our tough opening six games. I think that if he doesn’t perform well in that tough stretch, and Vince has a good off season they will bech Kerry in favor of Vince after the bye week.
6 games
57 % completion percentage
1020 yards
5 TDs
4 INTs
The prediction made by Sean S is definately the most accurate though lol
Sorry, I'm a Nube
by Sheriff McLawdog on Jul 2, 2009 7:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I was wondering
when we would see a prediction taking the whole Vince Scenario into account.
Personally I hope to see something along the lines of…
16 games
61% completion
3200 yards
14 TD’s
8 INT’s
I think completion and yardage will both improve, but seeing as CJ wants to step it up and White is in a contract year I still see most of our endzone celebrations between those two so I am only predicting a few more passing TD’s than last year. I guess I see Britt or Nate making it in the endzone on some big plays, but having not needing to go to the TE’s very often for a red zone threat with a running game that goes from top notch to elite.
by Titan in WV on Jul 3, 2009 6:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is my edit?!?!? ;-)
“but having not needing to go to the TE’s very often for a red zone threat with a running game that goes from top notch to elite”
should be “not needing to go to TE’s…”
Not sure what I was going to say when I put “but having”. It’s too damn early and I am working day 12 of a 19 day stretch. I topped 70 hours this week as of yesterday and am scheduled for 12 today. My brain hurts.
by Titan in WV on Jul 3, 2009 6:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a guess
15 Games
59% completions
2630 yards
13 touchdowns
7 interceptions
by predsfan3797 on Jul 3, 2009 8:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I know this thread is old, but.....
I give Kerry…
5 games
58% completions
750 yards
3 TD’s
6 INTs
I think he plays poorly against Pittsburgh, and doesn’t rebound. I also think he gets dinged up in that game. He may not make it out of Pittsburgh. But I’ll give him 5 games.
I do think that VY will get his chance early because one or two bad games by KC in losses will have the fans and media wondering ‘what if’ about VY.
If you don’t believe me, think back to the Houston game last year when we had recently won 10 straight, and Kerry’s inability to get it into the end zone caused fans and media to start chirping for VY to ‘add a new dimension’ to the offense (which is a completely idiotic thought).
Titan’s management will give in, as they did in VY’s rookie year, and he plays early…again.
by Bret Mavvrik on Jul 3, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Mine
13 games
62 comp
2990 yards
18 TD
6 INT
by TitanRob on Jul 3, 2009 9:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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