So I know the conventional wisdom in Titans Nation is that Boldin would be a brain-explodingly amazing pick up for the Titans via trade.  In an effort to stir things up, I submit this article for those of you with ESPN Insider.  It's a little piece by the guys at Football Outsiders which should serve to bring at least a little rain to the current pro-Boldin love parade.  For those without the WWL's pay service, keep reading and I will lay out some of the issues raised.

Injuries, age, draft picks and cash money dollar bills after the jump.

Injuries

The first big red flag on Boldin is that he has only stayed healthy for 2 full seasons out of 6, and only 1 of the last 5.  He has missed 8 regular season games over the past 2 seasons.  No one is ever going to question his toughness after his bionic face display this season, but many injuries, especially in the legs, simply can't be "toughed out".  Boldin is renowned as a guy with no fear going up for the ball in traffic, but this is the NFL, and sometimes you pay a price for that kind of fearlessness.  A guy who has issues with staying on the field when he is in his 20's generally doesn't make it too far into his 30's.  And that brings us to the next issue...

Age

Boldin will turn 29 during this coming season.  This statistical survey from several years ago suggests that "old" for a WR is 30.  Granted, the sample appears to only cover 1998-2002, so it's not cold hard fact, but the article shows how about 50% of WRs perform better at 29 than they did at 28, and again, about half of 30 year-olds improve from what they did at 29.  Then the improvement rate drops off a cliff.  Only 24% of WRs were more productive at age 31 than they were at age 30.  This suggests that regardless of where he is next year, Boldin's time as an elite WR in the NFL is coming to a close.

Fear and Trembling

These two issues combine in a fairly unsettling way.  We know Boldin has had issues in his youthful years of 23-28 with staying healthy.  We also know he is coming up on the age where most WR's begin a fairly steep decline.  The third thing we know is that this guy wouldn't even be on the market if he weren't looking to get paid in a big-$10 million- way. And lastly, we think we know that a 1st and 3rd round pick are going to be the minimum asking price for Boldin. 

So the question becomes, given these troubling indicators, is betting the farm on Boldin, sacrificing most of our remaining cap space, a chance to pick another Michael Griffin or Chris Johnson, and the ability to resign some of our own guys, worth it?  Griff and Johnson together next year won't earn $10 million, and neither have even hit their peaks yet.  Boldin has shown no signs of decline at this point, but things happen fast in the NFL, especially to WRs.

Boldin has 2 years left on the current deal that has him discontented in AZ.  He would turn 31 the season after that contract expires.  Knowing what we do about age trends, it becomes fairly clear why Boldin is so insistent on a new deal, and even clearer why no one has stepped up to the plate and made an offer yet.  In fact, stringing Boldin out "listening to offers" is probably the smartest thing the Cards can do.  They can try and placate him (pretend to negotiate or shop him) for the next two seasons, milk the remainder of his prime, and then let someone over pay him in 2 years.

Verdict

I didn't expect to convince people suddenly that Boldin is a bad idea for the Titans.  I just wanted to point out why this is not a slam dunk, and perhaps explain why no team has made an offer yet.  Imagine this scenario last year at this time.  If we had made a similar move for Boldin, we would have no Crazy Legs, and probably would have had to forsake at least a couple of the sweetheart long term deals we inked with Roos, Stewart, and Finnegan.  Can anyone tell me a single WR, in Tennessee's offense, is worth all that?  I say you can't.

So my final verdict is this:  The combination of new salary and draft picks that have been mentioned in the media for Boldin simply aren't worth it to this Tennessee Titans team.  If they can get him to agree to something in the 6-7 mil range, it becomes more feasible, but 10 mil a year for a WR is just plain stupid in a run first scheme with a game manager @ QB. 

Given our current GM's 2 for 2 home run rate on 1st round picks, the cost in draft picks alone might be too high when you consider that a really good draft pick could have 6-10 years of high level success whereas Boldin will most likely begin to decline within the next 2-3 years.  If there was any way to not send our 1st round pick, that would change everything in my mind, but I don't see any way that we pull that off.  Lendale and/or Scaife come to mind as players I would like to see us shop, but how much they would want either of those guys, I have no idea.  Perhaps those two guys + a 2nd or 3rd rounder? Who knows.

The bottom line with sports deals/trades is this:  you always want to make sure you are not paying for a player's past performance, but rather wisely gauge their future output.  With Boldin, the past is stellar, but the future is dubious.  The only way this deal is going to happen is if the Titans step up and decide to pay for his past performance to the tune of $8-10 mil per year and a 1st round pick.  I simply do not think that is the smart thing to do.