Updated Titans Playoff Scenario(s)

by jmztitans2 on Dec 21, 2009 6:45 PM CST Comment 32 comments

Tennessee makes the playoffs if..

TEN (7-7) wins out (9-7) and beats SD, @SEA

4 of the following 5 scenarios occur:

1) DEN (8-6) loses 2 of the following: @PHIL, KC

2) PIT (7-7) loses 1 of the following: BAL, @MIA

3) BAL (8-6) loses 2 of the following: @PIT, @OAK

4) JAX (7-7) loses 1 of the following: @NE, @CLE

5) NYJ (7-7) loses 1 of the following: @IND, CIN OR wins out and Miami wins out OR NE loses 2 games and MIA loses 1 game

6*) In some scenarios, MIA needs to lose one of the following: HOU, PIT (see below)

*If MIA wins out + DEN loses out + BAL loses 1 + PIT loses 1 + JAX loses 1 + NYJ loses one, we don’t make the playoffs (because then there are three 9-7 teams in different divisions)

*OR...MIA wins out + BAL loses out + DEN loses to KC but beats PHI + (for some reason if DEN loses to PHI but beats KC we get in, not sure why this is the case) + PIT loses to MIA + JAX loses 1 + NYJ loses one means we don’t make the playoffs (because then there are three 9-7 teams in different divisions)

Keep an eye on NE (9-5) who has JAX, @HOU remaining. We don’t want MIA to catch up to them and win the division, because we would lose a tiebreaker to NE. (We really want them to go 2-0 or 1-1. Just not 0-2 if MIA wins out.)

MIA (7-7) would win a tiebreaker against NE, and they have HOU and PIT remaining.

The Best, Least Complicated Scenario:

TEN beats SD

NE beats JAX

DEN loses to PHI

IND beats NYJ

BAL beats PIT

In week 17, we just beat SEA and hope that KC beats DEN

Then we make the playoffs

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Comments

Our best hope,

is Broncos flopping their last 2? do you think Ravens can?

Hopefully, it looks like Pit will lose 1 of their final, Jax and NYJ will too.

by RhiNo6705 on Dec 20, 2009 7:38 PM CST reply actions

I understand the tiebreakers when there is one playoff spot available

but what about when there are two?

ex: Titans, Steelers and Ravens finish 9-7.

Who would make it?

by Jabomber on Dec 20, 2009 7:43 PM CST reply actions

If there are two playoff spots available

That means the Broncos have lost both their games, because otherwise there would only be one available that the Ravens would win if the Titans, Steelers, and Ravens all finished 9-7. If the Broncos, Titans, Steelers, and Ravens all finished 9-7, the Ravens and Broncos would make it because of conference records (In tiebreakers, Ravens would first eliminate Steelers by division record, then Broncos and Ravens beat Steelers on conference record)

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 7:50 PM CST up reply actions

correction

at the end, I meant "then Broncos and Ravens beat Titans on conference record

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 7:51 PM CST up reply actions

so if Titans, Ravens and Steelers are only teams at 9-7 (Broncos 8-8)

Who makes it?

by Jabomber on Dec 20, 2009 7:52 PM CST reply actions

Titans and Ravens

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 7:53 PM CST up reply actions

okay can you explain?

by Jabomber on Dec 20, 2009 7:54 PM CST reply actions

just clarified it above

hope that explains it. sorry for the earlier confusion

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions

Am I missing something?

To me: Titans-Ravens-Steelers = Steelers and Ravens

Apply 3 team wild card rules.

Baltimore beats Steelers in division then beats us head to head because of conference.

Ravens get 5th seed.

That leaves Steelers vs Titans for the 6th seed and we lose that because of head to head. No?

by Jabomber on Dec 20, 2009 8:05 PM CST reply actions

At first, it is Steelers v. Ravens v. Titans

But then, as per the nfl’s tiebreaking procedures, “apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2,” step 2 being deciding ties between any remaining teams after step one.

So step one has us go from:
Titans, Ravens, Steelers
to, with the elimination of the Steelers from step 1,
Ravens (5) Titans (6)

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 8:11 PM CST up reply actions

Unfortunately, that doesn't work for us

The Ravens and Steelers would make it, as I understand the rules. You don’t stop applying tiebreakers when there are two teams left, you keep going until you have one team, and then repeat the process with the other two.

That is, if TEN, PIT, and BAL finish 9-7, and all other wild-card contenders finish 8-8 or worse…

we first follow the three-way wild card tiebreakers, as you said. BAL and PIT are in the same division, so we apply divisional tiebreakers; BAL has the better divisional record so they beat PIT. BAL beats TEN based on conference record, so BAL gets the 5th seed.

Then the wild-card tiebreaker is reapplied between PIT and TEN to fill the 6th seed. PIT wins on head-to-head, resulting in Ravens (5), Steelers (6).

by TitansJonInSTL on Dec 20, 2009 9:42 PM CST up reply actions

yeah, I think you are right TitansJonInSTL

I’ll change it above

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 9:44 PM CST up reply actions

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

I hope you are right. Yahoo playoff generator selects the Steelers and Ravens in that scenario. Which is my absolute worst nightmare. Would rather have Jets, Dolphins or Broncos in at that point.

by Jabomber on Dec 20, 2009 8:34 PM CST reply actions

Yeah that would be my worst nightmare too

I’m just going off nfl.com’s tiebreaking procedures, so I believe I’m right but I’m not 100% sure

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 8:38 PM CST up reply actions

this hurts my brain

lets beat the chargers!!!

by zero defects on Dec 20, 2009 9:53 PM CST reply actions

amen to that

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 9:55 PM CST up reply actions

we have to win out, and bal and den to lose their remaining games

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=05015155&15=50000000&16=15141145

"I finished the game. In my mind, if I finished the game, I can play next week." - Steve McNair RIP

by Pinoy Titan on Dec 20, 2009 9:55 PM CST reply actions

or...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=05015155&15=51041044&16=45505545

Basically, what’s above is (now) correct

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 9:58 PM CST up reply actions

That is the least complicated explaination I have seen thus far. Thanks

by Joy kat on Dec 22, 2009 4:40 PM CST up reply actions

and if everything above happens...

we get the five seed!

haha lets just beat SD and hope for the best

by jmztitans2 on Dec 20, 2009 10:00 PM CST reply actions

so you're sayin there's a chance

RABLE RABLE Nick Harper! RABLE RABLE RABLE!!! RABLE RABLE Jeff Fisher! RABLE RABLE!!!
http://crytebowcry.ytmnd.com/

by TitanFan2K on Dec 20, 2009 10:36 PM CST reply actions

Wow.

LOL

We need a SERIES of miracles!

Still, it’s GREAT to have even an outside chance. Shame that our destiny is in the hands of Oakland and/or KC. Ugh.

"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez

"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."

by The Jade Scorpion on Dec 20, 2009 10:39 PM CST reply actions

Damned Pittsburgh

Not only does blowing the season opener hurt us right now, but their unreal buzzer-beater win yesterday screwed us.

Oh, and THANKS A LOT, Chicago. :)

by DrBristol on Dec 21, 2009 9:52 AM CST reply actions

You are right about Chicago

Expecting to help us against he Ravens, we have a better chance of finding the missing link.

They’re playing worse and the season is progressing. Will someone explain to Cutler that if you throw a pass to the other team is bad thing. It seems that for him is more important to show that he can thread the needle and make a difficult in order to show how strong his arm is than to help his team win. No matter how bad is your receiving corp is not a excuse to post a 7.9 rating if you are, what Collinsworth can’t saying when is covering the Bears, the franchise QB. If he continue to be like that he could above 30 ins by the end of the season.

I'm not a VY fanboy, I'm a VY supporter

by Lord_Drist on Dec 21, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions

wow

so we need oakland to step up? let’s pack it in boys, good season.

by danielreese05 on Dec 21, 2009 1:58 PM CST reply actions

if they can beat Pittsburgh and Denver

they have a shot of beating Baltimore too.

by TitansJonInSTL on Dec 21, 2009 2:12 PM CST up reply actions

Not time to pack it in yet

We can’t give up yet. If you wanted to surrender the season at the first sign of improbability, you should have done so when they opened up at 0-6. As all true Titans fans have learned, music city is all about miracles. All we can do is sit back and enjoy the fact that we are actually in contention after such a miserable start. That and win our games. Let the rest of the league take care of itself.

by TitansManiac on Dec 21, 2009 4:09 PM CST up reply actions

I give up

I started trying to figure things out with yahoo’s thing and I just don’t get some of the scenarios. So basically…go Titans

by jmztitans2 on Dec 21, 2009 6:25 PM CST reply actions

Basically, this is the easiest way:

Titans win both
Jags lose to Patriots
Jets lose to Colts
Steelers lose to Dolphins
Ravens lose to Steelers and Raiders OR Broncos lose to Eagles and Chiefs.

I think the Ravens losing to the Steelers and Raiders is easier in the last one.

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by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 21, 2009 6:35 PM CST reply actions