Chris Johnson Success Rate Against Buffalo

by Jimmy on Nov 16, 2009 1:00 PM CST in Recaps Comment 12 comments

Explanation:

Each individual rush is considered on it's own, and measured by it's "success." A run is considered successful if it gets 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, and 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down. This is a much more accurate overall picture of how well a running back does in a game than just the total yardage or ypc averages because it ignores big run outliers that can skew those kinds of stats

Stats after the jump. (I removed LenDale White this week because he only had 3 unsuccessful carries.)

Chris Johnson

vs BUF / 11.15.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Chris Johnson	26	132	5.1	2	9	100	11.1	0

And 100 yards receiving to boot. He is a little bit good.

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Comments

It's Feast or Famine with CJ.

Those 9 Successful rushes accounted for 124 of his yards, good for 13.7 ypc. On the other 17 rushes he had 8 yards, good for .47 ypc.

by SuperHorn on Nov 16, 2009 1:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Indeed. He’s still excellent, but all those unsuccessful rushes really, really hurt- particularly the negative ones.

Anyone have numbers on what the average success rate is for a starting RB in the league? Or success rates of some other high profile backs?

by sablesma on Nov 16, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Football Outsiders’ running backs stats page has Success Rate for all RBs. Before yesterday’s game, CJ was 22nd of the 38 ranked RBs at 44%.

Note FO’s numbers include the 4th quarter adjustments-if you’re down 8+, it’s 50/65/100 and if you’re up, it’s 30/50/100 rather than the normal 40/60/100. I think that gives CJ two additional successful carries (the 2nd down runs after the game-winning TD).

by NewsToTom on Nov 16, 2009 2:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Tom

Titans Blogger at Music City Miracles even though gramsey hates it.

by Jimmy on Nov 16, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

good stuff

nice to see that CJ is/was no.1 DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and no. 2 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)

Music City Miracles blogger and official Jon Bovi tour manager.

by August West on Nov 16, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but this is why it's important to remember that...

…although CJ is very good, and the Offense keys around him, there are other players out there, too. I mean, Britt had a long catch, Washington had the touchdown grab, Scaife had several critical catches, VY converted at least once with his legs…

It’s feast or famine, yes, but the fact is that the long runs hurt so much that it forces the Defense to play differently. Look, Buffalo was playing a 4-4 most of the day yesterday.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."

by DannoE on Nov 16, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree.

It was just an observation, not a complaint.

by SuperHorn on Nov 16, 2009 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What CJ does that almost no one else does

when he gives us a feast, it’s pretty much always worth either 7 or 3 points, not just a first down.

Music City Miracles blogger and official Jon Bovi tour manager.

by August West on Nov 16, 2009 2:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

by SuperHorn on Nov 16, 2009 3:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Major props go to......

the O-Line & D-Line. These guys don’t get much credit…but without them, VY or CJ would be helpless. These games are being won in the trenches, and if I’m going to go to war….I want to go with these guys!!! By the the way, VY & CJ are OFF THE HOOK!!!

by titansfan4ever on Nov 16, 2009 5:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I have decided that CJ is not bad

He really has a shot at some all time records this year

I even started him on his bye week in my FF team – just in case :)

by WarWolf on Nov 16, 2009 6:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

You guys gotta lay off the man, he’s got at least 2 touchdowns and 130 yards in each of his past three games. He is right up there in the top echelon with MJD and A-Pete.

by NJBillsfan on Nov 16, 2009 7:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs