Chris Johnson Success Rate Against Buffalo
by Jimmy on Nov 16, 2009 1:00 PM CST
in Tennessee Titans Recaps
12 comments
Each individual rush is considered on it's own, and measured by it's "success." A run is considered successful if it gets 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, and 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down. This is a much more accurate overall picture of how well a running back does in a game than just the total yardage or ypc averages because it ignores big run outliers that can skew those kinds of stats
Stats after the jump. (I removed LenDale White this week because he only had 3 unsuccessful carries.)
Chris Johnson
And 100 yards receiving to boot. He is a little bit good.
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It's Feast or Famine with CJ.
Those 9 Successful rushes accounted for 124 of his yards, good for 13.7 ypc. On the other 17 rushes he had 8 yards, good for .47 ypc.
Indeed. He’s still excellent, but all those unsuccessful rushes really, really hurt- particularly the negative ones.
Anyone have numbers on what the average success rate is for a starting RB in the league? Or success rates of some other high profile backs?
Football Outsiders’ running backs stats page has Success Rate for all RBs. Before yesterday’s game, CJ was 22nd of the 38 ranked RBs at 44%.
Note FO’s numbers include the 4th quarter adjustments-if you’re down 8+, it’s 50/65/100 and if you’re up, it’s 30/50/100 rather than the normal 40/60/100. I think that gives CJ two additional successful carries (the 2nd down runs after the game-winning TD).
good stuff
nice to see that CJ is/was no.1 DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and no. 2 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)
Music City Miracles blogger and official Jon Bovi tour manager.
Yeah, but this is why it's important to remember that...
…although CJ is very good, and the Offense keys around him, there are other players out there, too. I mean, Britt had a long catch, Washington had the touchdown grab, Scaife had several critical catches, VY converted at least once with his legs…
It’s feast or famine, yes, but the fact is that the long runs hurt so much that it forces the Defense to play differently. Look, Buffalo was playing a 4-4 most of the day yesterday.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
What CJ does that almost no one else does
when he gives us a feast, it’s pretty much always worth either 7 or 3 points, not just a first down.
Music City Miracles blogger and official Jon Bovi tour manager.
Major props go to......
the O-Line & D-Line. These guys don’t get much credit…but without them, VY or CJ would be helpless. These games are being won in the trenches, and if I’m going to go to war….I want to go with these guys!!! By the the way, VY & CJ are OFF THE HOOK!!!
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