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Running Back Success Rates Against Cleveland

Titansfantasy_medium
This is something that my friends at Roll Bama Roll do every week, and I thought it would be interesting to look at for the Titans as well.  Here is how it works:

Each individual rush is considered on it's own, and measured by it's "success." A run is considered successful if it gets 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, and 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down. This is a much more accurate overall picture of how well a running back does in a game than just the total yardage or ypc averages because it ignores big run outliers that can skew those kinds of stats.  

First up is Crazy Legs:


vs CLE / 12.7.08 Rushing Receiving
Rush Yards Avg TD Rec Yards Avg TD
Chris Johnson 19 136 7.2 1 4 30 7.5 0

13cj_medium
Dash didn't have a very successful game by these measures, but this system probably isn't the best way to judge his production.  His carries of 17, 15, 25 and 33 make up for his less successful runs.

Here is LenDale:


vs CLE / 12.7.08 Rushing Receiving
Rush Yards Avg TD Rec Yards Avg TD
LenDale White 24 99 4.1 1 1 2 2.0 0

13lendale_medium
I would say Smash will be more successful under these measuring guidelines because of the nature of his carries.  Typically, thought not really the case in this game, The Round Mound comes in to pick up the short yardage plays and is usually successful doing so.

This is just another way at looking at the game.  Let me know what you think..

Also, our running backs have a lot of nicknames!

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Here's another way to look at it

Based on the total Yards Required of them versus what they actually gained :

Go Titans!

by Pinoy Titan on Dec 8, 2008 11:28 PM CST reply actions  

I think I'd quibble with the idea that gaining 2 or 3 yards on 1st or 2nd Down is not a "success."

Especially when, on average, you’re gaining more. I mean, look, if you gain 3 yds on 1st and 3 yds on 2nd, you’re in 3rd-and-4, and that’s certainly manageable. Hell, even if you only put yourself in 3rd-and-5, you’re still not in what I think most folks think of as “3rd-and-long.” And at the same time, you’re killing the clock and setting yourself up for the second half.

I agree that this is an interesting perspective, but I would be more interested to take apart a few of the plays and discuss why they specifically worked or didn’t work. For example, Dash’s 3rd run (17 yrds, occuring early in the game) or his 3rd run in the 2nd half, which gained only 2 yards and was practically the only “bad” run of that entire half—presumably because the opposing Defense got tired.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Go Titans!

by DannoE on Dec 9, 2008 8:32 AM CST reply actions  

I would be awesome if we had someone with time and a DVR

They could break the game down play by play.

I’ve got the will and the DVR, but unfortunately I do not have the time.

Not unless I want my wife to murder me that is.

by theologic on Dec 9, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Is this the same figure that Football Outsiders uses to calculate “success rate”?

by hartley on Dec 9, 2008 9:18 AM CST reply actions  

Could be

Titans Blogger at Music City Miracles even though gramsey hates it.

by Jimmy on Dec 9, 2008 9:19 AM CST up reply actions  

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