P(Wins) Power Rankings and Predictions

by DannoE on Nov 10, 2008 12:16 PM CST

* AFC *
Power Ranking	Team	Wins	Losses	Points For	Points Against	P(Wins)	Wins Expected
1	Tennessee Titans	9	0	220	117	0.817	13
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	3	198	140	0.695	11
3	Baltimore Ravens	6	3	212	150	0.694	11
4	New York Jets	6	3	255	190	0.668	11
5	New England Patriots	6	3	188	160	0.594	10
6	San Diego Chargers	4	5	244	218	0.566	9
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	5	198	186	0.537	9
8	Miami Dolphins	5	4	192	182	0.532	9
9	Buffalo Bills	5	4	192	189	0.509	8
10	Indianapolis Colts	5	4	191	197	0.482	8
11	Denver Broncos	5	4	224	251	0.433	7
12	Cleveland Browns	3	6	172	194	0.429	7
13	Houston Texans	3	6	209	254	0.386	6
14	Kansas City Chiefs	1	8	145	243	0.227	4
15	Cincinnati Bengals	1	8	125	236	0.182	3
16	Oakland Raiders	2	7	113	218	0.174	3

* NFC *
Power Ranking	Team	Wins	Losses	Points For	Points Against	P(Wins)	Wins Expected
1	New York Giants	8	1	262	160	0.763	12
2	Carolina Panthers	7	2	191	133	0.702	11
3	Philadelphia Eagles	5	4	251	180	0.687	11
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	3	200	147	0.675	11
5	Arizona Cardinals	5	3	234	184	0.639	10
6	Chicago Bears	5	4	237	194	0.616	10
7	Atlanta Falcons	6	3	211	174	0.612	10
8	Green Bay Packers	4	5	237	206	0.582	9
9	New Orleans Saints	4	5	236	229	0.518	8
10	Washington Redskins	6	3	171	168	0.510	8
11	Dallas Cowboys	5	4	216	219	0.492	8
12	Minnesota Vikings	5	4	210	215	0.486	8
13	San Francisco 49ers	2	6	171	230	0.331	5
14	Seattle Seahawks	2	7	170	231	0.326	5
15	Detroit Lions	0	9	151	277	0.192	3
16	St. Louis Rams	2	7	128	282	0.133	2

Wild Card Round - Wild Card Rnd: Predicted Winners listed first.

Baltimore (6) @ San Diego

New England (5) @ NY Jets

Philly (5) @ Chicago

AZ Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay

Divisional Round:

Titans vs. Patriots

Ravens @ Steelers

NY Giants vs. Cardinals

Panthers vs. Eagles

Championship Round:

Titans vs. Ravens

NY Giants vs. Panthers

I've been known to criticize FO's rankings, mostly because I feel like sometimes their statistics miss the bigger, more obvious picture. This is a simpler analysis, using P(Wins), which is a formula that I've no doubt many of you have seen. That said, I went away from straight P(Wins) predictions for the playoffs to reflect the fact that there will be more drama if the Ravens come to Nashville for the AFC Championship as well as for the considerable home-field advantage that AZ possesses in their stadium. Finally, I cannot bring myself to believe that the Jets can beat the Pats in the playoffs under any circumstances.

Comments are more than welcome. Criticisms will be taken with a grain of salt.

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Comments

reasonable

I think it will surprise a lot of people that three teams don’t make it from the NFC east this year, but it looks probable at this point that only two will make it. I’m looking forward to seeing Arizona in the playoffs. Hopefully they won’t choke tonight / second part of the season.

In the AFC, I think the Colts will do better than 8 wins, and I’m not sure the Chargers or Jacksonville will hit 9. I like Denver to win the division better than the chargers, and I don’t think a second team from that division makes the playoffs at all. I like the other 5 teams you ended up with in the AFC though.

by numbertenox on Nov 10, 2008 12:37 PM CST reply actions

Honestly, I tend to agree with you.

Well, I don’t think Denver is a very good team—at all—but other than that, you’re right. I mean, teams change over the course of a season, and at this point, I doubt I’d pick the Steelers to win the North. Ditto for the Jags to finish ahead of the Colts. But hey, this is just a statistical tool. It’s not ever perfect.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Go Titans!

by DannoE on Nov 10, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions

indy only winning 3 more games? behind jacksonville?

no way, sorry. indy’s schedule is way too easy for that, seeing as how they don’t play another winning team until us in week 17 and they just beat the steelers and pats…

as for jacksonville, they finish up with titans, vikings, @texans, @bears, packers, colts, ravens. that is a nightmare of a final 7 weeks. if they get five wins out of those teams i will die of shock.

by hal41605 on Nov 10, 2008 1:27 PM CST reply actions

Again, I say...

…these are only statistics. This is a purely numbers-based thing. Likely what you’re seeing is a product of the schedule that has already occured and not the one going forward.

That said, I doubt either of those teams will make the playoffs, so what difference does it make?

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Go Titans!

by DannoE on Nov 10, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions

actually i think indy is in

cupcake schedule helps, and they just played the 3 best afc teams in consecutive weeks and went 2-1. i see the jets fading after their loss coming up on thursday night to the pats. chargers have yet to look good this year, and i dont believe in buffalo or miami at all. ravens are slowly turning into a scary team, but they still have to play the entire nfc east. the way i see it, its ravens and colts for WC.

by hal41605 on Nov 10, 2008 2:36 PM CST up reply actions

I'm not ready to annoint Indy yet.

Granted, they are a pretty good team, but Pittsburgh played HORRIBLY yesterday. What stupid play-calling. How do you let Big ben throw risky passes when you’re up 17-7? Just run the damned ball! Fisherball may have its limitations, but you gotta admit that that’s a mistake that he would NEVER allow his guys to make.

For me, I think the Jets are turning into a scary team, I’ve never been off the Ravens bandwagon, and the Steelers have enough momentum to carry them through to a Wild Card even though I think they’re fading fast. That said, maybe NE won’t make it. They have a LOT of injuries on Defense, so if anything, the Colts may sneak in there. Still, they could easily drop a couple of those games—Browns, Jags, hell even the Texans could give them serious trouble.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Go Titans!

by DannoE on Nov 10, 2008 2:48 PM CST up reply actions

Maybe they didn't have faith in their backup RB to run out the clock?

But since Mewelde Moore is a good running back, that would also be stupid, just in a different way.

by hartley on Nov 10, 2008 3:07 PM CST up reply actions

interesting

you’re right i couldn’t believe how bad the steelers looked. i think the WC pretty much boils down to this:

the north gets one. i dont see how both the ravens and steelers don’t make the playoffs.

the afc west blows, they get none.

that leaves one for either the south or east. colts are the only team from the south that can make it (jags are toast). jets play NE and us back to back, so they could easily sit at 6-5 in 2 weeks. maybe buffalo or miami makes a run, but i’m generally an afc east non-believer. meanwhile indy gets 6 straight games against mediocre (texans, jags, chargers), bad(browns), or awful (bengals, lions) teams.

certainly there is a lot of football to be played, but i give indy the inside track to squeak into the #6 spot. thats my logic anyway

by hal41605 on Nov 10, 2008 3:08 PM CST up reply actions

That would put Indy at NE in the WC Round and the Steelers at San Diego or Denver.

I’d probably give both road teams the win there. Indy because NE’s losing defensive players at an alarming rate to injuries and Pittsburgh because you’re right, none of the AFC West teams are any good. Which would lead to Indy at Tennessee and Pittsburgh at Baltimore—two excellent Divisional games.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Go Titans!

by DannoE on Nov 11, 2008 7:20 AM CST reply actions